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NFL betting: Tom Brady isn’t playing like Super Bowl Tom Brady; take the UNDER in Bengals vs. Bucs

pamela maldonado
Betting analyst
·2 min read
21
NFL betting: Tom Brady isn’t playing like Super Bowl Tom Brady; take the UNDER in Bengals vs. Bucs

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15. Prior to the season, this could be seen as an intriguing matchup. Now, it’s not in the top three games I’d be interested in watching from this slate. However, it is a game I’m interested in wagering on.

Bet the UNDER 44 in Bengals vs. Bucs

Both Cincinnati and Tampa Bay are top five in the league for games going UNDER the total. The Bucs are 10-3 to the UNDER, while the Bengals are 8-4-1. I have not seen a game from Tom Brady and the Bucs to show that the offense can put up 20-plus points against the Bengals' top-10 defense.

The Bengals are sixth-best in limiting touchdowns from inside the red zone, allowing only 44% of touchdown scores when traveling. Brady is already struggling mightily this season, especially as of late. The Bucs are dead last in rushing yards and Brady hasn’t been able to produce in the passing game, throwing 5.1 yards per pass in his last three games, while also throwing four interceptions in his last four. As a result, Tampa is bottom 10 in scoring production when downfield.

The Bengals offense is dealing with injuries. Tight end Hayden Hurst and receivers Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins were all injured in a 23-10 win over the Browns in Week 14 and are all questionable to play this Sunday. Although Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has done a great job of releasing the ball more quickly, which has led to just three total sacks in his last three games, being down some weapons against a Tampa Bay defense looking to rally at home could be a disadvantage. Burrow has been sacked seven times more when traveling than playing at home.

Both offenses could struggle, turning this into a defensive battle for both squads. If Vita Vaya is unable to go for the Bucs (left Week 14 with a calf injury), Devin White has still been a solid threat and ranks top five in both sacks and quarterback pressures. Take UNDER 44 between the Bengals and the Bucs.