NFL betting: This key metric can help with your season-long futures bets
Week 1 of the NFL preseason is now in the books. We got our first look at the rookie quarterbacks, along with a quick reminder that we should have tempered expectations for those likely to start. Both C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson threw early interceptions, and while Bryce Young avoided turning the ball over, he managed a meager 3.5 yards per attempt in his debut with the Carolina Panthers.
The quarterback spotlight isn’t all on the rookies. Sam Howell and Jordan Love had solid performances as they look to prove they belong as first-time starters. It’s been five years since Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold were selected at the top of the 2018 Draft. Both players have bounced around the league in the last few years, and hope to put together a preseason that will earn them some playing time in their new home.
There are plenty of questions this time of year when it pertains to quarterbacks around the league. The reality is that preseason isn’t going to provide answers to any of them. We have all fallen victim to putting too much stock into these glorified practices. Whether it’s Ryan Leaf out-dueling a young Peyton Manning, Ja’Marr Chase being labeled a bust or Brandon Weeden turning Cleveland fans into believers, every fan probably has an example of when their emotions were put in a blender by the illusions of August football.
Betting into the futures market this close to the season has both pros and cons. On one hand, information is our greatest asset. The more we obtain, the more comfortable we feel. Most of us are wired that way. On the other hand, the odds are pretty efficient after being bet into the entire summer. Edges are minimal. That’s the trade-off bettors make, and it’s based on when they are comfortable they have enough valuable information to make an informed wager. More likely than not, you’re already there at this point. There is not much that’s going to change a team’s outlook, outside of injury, which can happen at any point in the season.
Rather than overreacting to preseason stat lines over the next few weeks, it’s better to rely on the research that kept you busy all those summer nights. One of the stats that I like to lean on when evaluating new quarterback situations, or ones without a long history to fall back on, is the potential for explosive plays.
Explosive plays win games in the NFL
The NFL is an offense-driven league. Nine of the top 10 scoring offenses made the playoffs, while the top two (Kansas City and Philadelphia) battled in the Super Bowl. Not surprisingly, teams that score more, win more. A team’s ability to hit explosive plays (12+ yard runs, 16+ yard passes) plays a major factor in whether or not drives end up generating points.
Drives without an explosive play have less than a 10% chance of resulting in points, while the percentages jump drastically with each explosive play. Two explosive plays gives teams over 50% of scoring, while three moves the needle to over 80%. It’s not a coincidence all four of the teams that finished as the top two seeds in their conference (Kansas City, Philadelphia, Buffalo and San Francisco) also finished in the top five in generating explosive plays. They also finished as the top four teams in net explosive plays (the difference between explosive plays generated and allowed).
Long story short, if you are hitting more explosive plays than your opponent, there is a good chance you are scoring more and winning the game.
How should this shape your bets?
Your wagers should never be based on a single data point, but I do think it’s important to factor in how an offense is built when thinking about its potential success. The longer drives are extended, the more likely there is that a penalty or a negative play can sabotage their success. Chaining together 10-play drives is a difficult way to beat defenses. It’s not a referendum on playing overs on every team with better skill position players, but it definitely came into play for me when deciding on whether a team like Miami (who I am very high on) is worth backing at the current odds. Understanding how it impacts a team whether positive or negative can be applied to your decision-making process with any season-long wagers, including player props. Defenses got better last year at reducing explosive plays, which helped decrease scoring from 23.9 to 21 points per game. It also led to a dip in yardage totals for most quarterbacks for season-long yardage props.
Let’s look at a few teams that I circled that might stand out when viewing through the context of explosive plays.
New England Patriots
Mac Jones went backward in Year 2, and Bill O’Brien gets the headset to inject some life to the offense. Belichick’s defenses are always going to be nails, but I have concerns with the roster building on the other side of the ball. Adding JuJu Smith-Shuster doesn’t seem anywhere near enough. Jones is clearly on the hot seat, but moving the chains 10 yards at a time with this group would be a challenge for anyone. The offensive talent doesn’t stack up in the division, which is the main reason the Pats aren’t getting my money. If anything, the under 6.5 at +115 makes sense.
New York Giants
Brain Daboll was a magician last year, pushing a previously four-win team to the divisional round of the playoffs after ranking 27th in net explosives. I’m betting the sequel isn’t as good of a show as the original, and the offense is a big reason why. The team's ability to win games plummeted once opponents figured out how to button up Saquon Barkley, and I’m unsure if they have the field-stretchers in place to really open up the offense. I’m excited to see how Daboll utilizes their abundance of slot receivers, but it feels like another year of depending on long drives.
Houston Texans
The Texans were the league’s worst team in net explosive plays last season. While it’s easy to get excited over C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., it’s important to realize they are starting from rock bottom. Robert Woods and John Metchie aren’t going to make the drastic impact required for an offense that ranked 32nd through the air and 31st on the ground in EPA per play. This is another team that doesn’t have the firepower to make the leap their win total warrants.
It’s not just about the quarterback
Everything doesn’t fall on the quarterback's shoulders. Getting a new offensive coordinator or play-caller can have a massive impact on an offense. Some of the biggest stories this offseason have revolved around teams hoping to get the most of their quarterbacks by changing their play-callers. Some of those teams to keep an eye on are below.
Dallas Cowboys
One of the most surprising moves was Dallas cutting ties with Kellen Moore after finishing third in scoring. Mike McCarthy wants a more balanced offensive approach, fueled by his running game. I’m fascinated by how this turns out. Teams enjoyed more rushing success last season than they have seen in several years, so is Mike McCarthy stuck in the past or ahead of the curve?
The real question is whether Tony Pollard and Deuce Vaughn can shoulder the load without succumbing to injury. The Cowboys have playmakers all over the field, so it’s hard to bet against the offense still being explosive. Where McCarthy's play-calling could have the biggest impact on the Cowboys' season is in high-leverage situations at the end of games. That's going to make or break whether they can get to the next level.
Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hard to not love Kellen Moore’s landing spot. This is the perfect example of how the potential of a team getting more explosive can alter their outlook. After watching Justin Herbert pepper the first 5 yards after the line of scrimmage with passes last season, we finally get to see the star quarterback’s talent maximized. Not only did they bring in a dynamic play-caller in Moore, but they drafted TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston in the first round. L.A. is committed to crafting its offense around big plays, which is why the Chargers earned my money this offseason.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens parting with Greg Roman ensures we will get answers to the NFL’s best imitation of the chicken or the egg causality dilemma. Did the Ravens' run-heavy approach help or hinder Lamar Jackson’s ability to flourish as a passer? Todd Monken taking over play-calling in Baltimore makes Jackson a real player in the MVP conversation. The additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers equip Jackson with a diverse offensive arsenal, but bettors have to decide whether the changes will translate to wins, or end up simply cosmetic. Baltimore was already sixth in net explosive plays, so if they can improve on that, your eyes should be shifting to Super Bowl odds.
Denver Broncos and New York Jets
I had to lump these two lovebirds together now that they have become the best preseason rivalry in football. I had concerns about Sean Payton being up for the task of bringing Russell Wilson back to his prime, and his first bit of action had my smile curling up like the Grinch. Of course, the preseason never lies when it’s confirming your position. Payton will certainly make the Broncos much better, but I expect him to do it more through the running game, as opposed to relying on Wilson. With Tim Patrick’s season ending in camp, the weapons that Wilson has to work with is a steep drop-off from his days in Seattle. I don’t see this as an explosive offense, which limits their ceiling in a tough conference.
As for the Jets, it won’t be perfect, but I feel stronger about their outlook than Denver. Adding Aaron Rodgers to an offense with young playmakers like Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall will give New York the missing piece it lacked in 2022. There are issues with the offensive line, and it’s also going to take some time to build chemistry. Your patience should pay off. Rather than bet on them now, I think the Jets are a team to target in the second half of the season at some better odds.
Take a step back and don’t overreact
Whether you are putting the finishing touches on your futures bets for the season, preparing for your survivor pools or firing on Week 1 odds already, I hope this provided some insight on how to view some of the offseason changes from another perspective. This is a time of year where the NFL is back in the forefront and new information is coming non-stop between preseason action, holdouts and daily highlights from camp. It’s important to take a step back from the constant updates, go back to how you viewed these teams over the summer and highlight the valuable information that you believe can make a difference in a team's season.
Stats provided by teamrankings, statmuse, royalfootball, pff, and clevanalytics.
