NFL betting recap: Patrick Mahomes suffers first ATS loss as underdog, bettors lose big on the over
Entering Sunday, there was an NFL betting trend that was the equivalent of free money. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have rarely been underdogs in Mahomes' four-plus seasons as the starting quarterback. However, in the rare instances where oddsmakers installed the Chiefs as an underdog, Mahomes has been flawless.
Mahomes has been a betting underdog just nine times in his career. Entering Sunday, he was 7-0-1 against the spread when in the underdog role, and the Chiefs won six of those eight games straight up. The most recent example came earlier this season, when Mahomes and the Chiefs were 2-point underdogs in Tampa Bay against Tom Brady and company. The Chiefs won that game by a score of 41-31, and the game wasn't even as close as that scoreline would suggest.
However, all good things must come to an end. The Buffalo Bills defeated the Kansas City Chiefs by a score of 24-20 and in the process covered as 2.5-point road favorites. The action was pretty split at BetMGM, as 52% of the spread bets were on the Chiefs. However, a lopsided 78% of moneyline bets were backing Kansas City at +120. For the first time, betting Mahomes as an underdog ended up being a bad bet.
While the outcome of the game was paramount, oddsmakers and bettors alike were sweating the total for the game. Mahomes and Josh Allen are widely considered the two best quarterbacks in football. When these teams met in the playoffs last season, they combined for 78 points. The pregame total closed at 54.5 points. That's an extremely high total, but bettors didn't think it was high enough. At BetMGM, 89% of bets and 91% of the money was backing the game to go over the total.
Bettors knew they were in trouble in the first quarter. The Bills received the ball, marched down the field taking six minutes off the clock and then proceeded to fumble in the red zone when Isaiah McKenzie didn't look ready for a pitch from Josh Allen. Kansas City recovered the fumble and then embarked on a 14-play drive that took nearly seven minutes off the clock. On third-and-goal, Mahomes tried to squeeze the ball in to Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the end zone, but rookie Kair Elam took it away.
That meant two long drives that took nearly the whole first quarter and zero points on the board. With a total as high as 54.5 points, that meant major trouble. Bettors held out hope after the late scoring explosion we saw between these teams in the playoffs last season, but it wasn't meant to be.
It was an evenly played game. The game was tied at 17 entering the fourth quarter. The Chiefs' took a 20-17 lead thanks to a Harrison Butker field goal with less than 10 minutes remaining. The teams exchanged punts until the Bills received the ball with five-and-a-half minutes remaining. Josh Allen led a 12-play scoring drive that ended with him finding Dawson Knox in the end zone. The Bills had a 24-20 lead with 1:04 remaining.
With 1:04 on the clock and two timeouts in his pocket, it certainly felt like Buffalo once again might have left Mahomes too much time. However, the dream for Kansas City and over bettors ended when Taron Johnson intercepted Mahomes with under a minute remaining.
It was a big win for Buffalo. Not only did it help exorcise some demons from last season, but it now gives them a potential tiebreaker over the Chiefs. The Bills are now +275 favorites to win the Super Bowl and +160 to win the AFC. Kansas City dropped to +750 to win it all and +350 to win the conference. Josh Allen is now +150 to win NFL MVP while Patrick Mahomes dropped to +500.
Late Cowboys field goal miss was important to some
On Sunday night, the Philadelphia Eagles closed as 6.5-point home favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. It looked like it was going to be a blowout, no-sweat winner for Eagles bettors. Philadelphia broke out to a 20-0 lead in the second quarter and the Cowboys looked incapable of moving the football.
However, slowly but surely, it became more of a sweat for Eagles bettors. The Cowboys got on the board with a field goal late in the first half. They scored touchdowns on two straight possessions to open the second half while forcing two Eagles punts. Suddenly, the Cowboys were down by just three points and covering the spread.
Philadelphia answered with an impressive touchdown drive of their own that was capped by a Jalen Hurts touchdown pass to Devonta Smith. On the play, Trevon Diggs was flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct. Philadelphia decided to enforce the penalty on the point-after try and go for two. Miles Sanders was stuffed and Philadelphia's lead was just nine.
Immediately, the situation became dire for Eagles bettors. Dallas needed two scores either way. However, Philadelphia kicking the extra point would have made the lead 10, preventing a potential backdoor cover via field goal. We all knew what was coming.
The Cowboys moved the ball down the field, powered by a 24-yard catch by Ceedee Lamb. The drive fizzled out though, and on fourth down, they knew they had to attempt a 59-yard field goal to try and cut Philadelphia's advantage to a single possession. Brett Maher had enough leg, but he missed wide right. If he made it, the lead would have been down just six and the Cowboys would have covered the spread.
It might have felt like a meaningless kick to some, but bettors knew it wasn't.
Early slate featured bad beats and upsets
The early slate was absolutely chaotic from a betting perspective. We saw the four biggest favorites in the early window lose outright and we saw three bad beats in the closing seconds.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were 9.5-point favorites on the road in Pittsburgh against the Steelers. However, Tom Brady did not find the end zone until the final five minutes of the game. Brady found Leonard Fournette to cut Pittsburgh's lead to 20-18, but the two-point conversion attempt failed. The Steelers bled the last four-and-a-half minutes off the clock and never gave Brady another chance. Pittsburgh cashed at +350 for those brave enough to take them on the moneyline.
The New York Jets now have a better record than the Green Bay Packers through six weeks, just like we all predicted. New York was a 7.5-point underdog at Lambeau, but the Jets ended up winning the game outright, 27-10. New York's defense stifled Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The biggest moment of the game came when the Jets blocked a punt in the third quarter and returned it for a touchdown to give them a 17-3 lead. Zach Wilson was held to just 110 passing yards, but Breece Hall went wild on the ground and the Jets cashed at +260 on the moneyline.
The New York Giants continued their magical start to the season as they beat the Baltimore Ravens, 24-20, as a 5.5-point betting underdog to improve their record to 5-1. It looked like the Ravens might even cover the spread as a favorite, but it all fell apart late. Daniel Jones found Daniel Bellinger to cut Baltimore's lead to just three points.
On Baltimore's next possession, a snap went over the head of Lamar Jackson. He recovered it and then went to throw. That was an ill-advised decision as it was intercepted. New York took advantage as Saquon Barkley gave the Giants a 24-20 lead with under two minutes to play. Unfortunately for over bettors, that wasn't Barkley's last involvement in the game.
On the Ravens' final possession, Lamar Jackson fumbled deep in their own territory. Baltimore decided the best course of action was to let New York score, but Barkley fell at the 1-yard line after securing a first down and the Giants kneeled out the clock. While it was the correct decision from a win-probability standpoint, bettors who had over 45.5 points in the game must have been wrecked when they saw Barkley hit the ground outside of the end zone.
The Atlanta Falcons improved to 6-0 against the spread and are the only remaining team in the NFL that is yet to lose against the betting number. They won outright as 4.5-point home underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. It was another annoying game for over bettors. The teams combined for 35 points in the first half. On Atlanta's first drive of the second half, they scored a touchdown. Bettors needed just one touchdown in the final quarter and a half for the game to go over 46.5 points.
However, the Falcons were content running the clock and punting. The 49ers offense had nothing going. In the second half, they punted twice, threw an interception and then turned the ball over on downs in the red zone. Under bettors probably chalked up a loss at half time, but they ended up winning their bet.
Bettors who had the Jaguars and Saints probably felt like they deserved better as well. The Colts and Bengals just needed field goals to win their games. If they kicked those field goals, the underdog would have still covered. However, both teams found the end zone instead and ended up covering as favorites. You can read more about those bad beats here.
Just another Sunday in the NFL.
