NFL betting: Ranking the playoff coaches, from Chiefs' Andy Reid to Dolphins' Mike McDaniel
Millennia after Hellenistic astronomers enlightened society as to the spherical nature of the rock we cohabitate, NFL coaches spend every waking moment searching for an intangible edge on an acre of grass. In the playoffs, exploiting those edges often means the difference between hoisting the Lombardi trophy and saying, "We'll get 'em next year."
Here is a ranking of every head coach in the 2022 NFL playoffs, based on Super Bowl victories, conference championships and postseason records:
1. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
Super Bowl wins: 1
Conference championships: 3
Playoff record: 19-16 (.543)
Big Red's offense dominated this year, topping the NFL in points, EPA per play and success rate on the shoulders of another MVP season from Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City finished second in red-zone scoring percentage (69.4%), boosted by an 84.6% mark their past three outings. Imagine how scary this team would be if Reid embraced analytics as passionately as he embraces the Jimmy Buffett lifestyle. The Chiefs enter the playoffs having won 10 of their past 11 games and are the odds-on favorites to win the whole shebang.
First round matchup: BYE
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +325
2. Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks
Super Bowl wins: 1
Conference championships: 2
Playoff record: 11-10 (.524)
No one expected Seattle to make the playoffs in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Only the Texans and Falcons opened the 2022 season with lower expected win totals than Seattle's 5.5. I'd say it's likely one-and-done for The Great Masticator, but his team has been defying expectations since Week 1.
First-round matchup: (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +8000
3. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Super Bowl wins: 1
Conference championships: 1
Playoff record: 4-2 (.667)
Jacksonville went from posting the NFL's worst record in back-to-back seasons to winning the AFC South after Pederson swooped in to restore some dignity to the franchise. Can the man who won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles replicate that success with an infinitely more talented Trevor Lawrence?
First-round matchup: (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +5000
4. John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl wins: 1
Conference championships: 1
Playoff record: 11-8 (.579)
In the decade since Harbaugh earned a parade for the city of Baltimore, he's 2-4 in the postseason, having never won more than one game. The Ravens might have the best defense in the AFC, but Lamar Jackson hasn't played in more than a month, and it's tough to see this team advancing without a healthy version of the 2019 MVP.
First-round matchup: (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +4000
5. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
Super Bowl wins: 1
Conference championships: 1
Playoff record: 10-9 (.526)
McCarthy has coached elite rosters for the overwhelming majority of his 16 seasons and has one ring to show for it. Trusting him to win a crucial game is like trusting Skip Bayless to go a week without saying something moronic.
First-round matchup: (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +1400
6. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
Super Bowl wins: 0
Conference championships: 1
Playoff record: 3-1 (.750)
Taylor's playoff sample is just one postseason, but it was a highly impressive one that saw Cincinnati dig itself out of a 21-3 hole in the AFC championship to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead. This team is dangerous on both sides of the ball and could easily end up returning to the Super Bowl.
First-round matchup: (-7) vs. Baltimore Ravens
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +750
7. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Super Bowl wins: 0
Conference championships: 1
Playoff record: 4-2 (.667)
If defense wins championships, this is your Super Bowl champion. The offense isn't too shabby, either. In Brock Purdy's five starts, the Niners scored 35, 21, 37, 37 and 38 points. They've won 10 straight. Three more victories, and Shanahan will get a shot at redeeming himself for choking away Super Bowl LIV.
First-round matchup: (-9.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +500
8. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl wins: 0
Conference championships: 0
Playoff record: 3-4 (.429)
To be the man, you've got to beat the man. Kansas City sent Buffalo packing the past two postseasons and is looking like the better team heading into this one. A neutral field awaits the pair if they meet in the AFC championship.
First-round matchup: (-9.5) vs. Miami Dolphins
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +400
9. Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl wins: 0
Conference championships: 0
Playoff record: 0-1 (.000)
Sirianni's roster is drastically different than the one that flamed out in the 2021 playoffs. The additions of Haason Reddick, James Bradberry and C.J. Gardner-Johnson transformed the defense into a wrecking ball. The draft day trade for A.J. Brown also provided Jalen Hurts and the offense with the game-breaker they were missing. The Eagles' Super Bowl run might stop short if right tackle Lane Johnson is unable to return from a torn adductor.
First-round matchup: BYE
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +500
COACHES WITH NO PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE
10. Kevin O'Connell, Minnesota Vikings
The good news is the Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games this season and won the NFC North for the first time since 2017. The bad news is this team is more fraudulent than Sam Bankman-Fried. The Vikings are the sixth-worst team in the NFL, according to DVOA, and their offensive line is falling apart at the most inopportune time.
First-round matchup: (-3) vs. New York Giants
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +3000
11. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bowles is the guy at the poker table who puts his money in bad all night, keeps making hands on the river and then goes home thinking he played well. Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay defense could pull off a victory against Dallas, but this team is drawing dead when it comes to the Lombardi trophy.
First-round matchup: (+2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2500
12. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
The decision to play his starters for the majority of a meaningless Week 18 game doesn't reflect well on Staley. His postgame reasoning made even less sense. Hopefully, Staley learns from the mistakes he has made in his first two years on the job, but it's tough to put any faith in him or offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi as their blunders pile up.
First-round matchup: (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2500
13. Brian Daboll, New York Giants
Daboll did a great job turning the Giants around in his first year as head coach. They're still a mediocre team and have as much of a chance of winning the Super Bowl as I have of marrying Cardi B, okurrr?
First-round matchup: (+3) at Minnesota Vikings
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +6600
14. Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
There's no question that McDaniel is a brilliant offensive mind. But things aren't looking so bright for Miami's playoff hopes, as Tua Tagovailoa has yet to clear concussion protocol. The Dolphins have lost five of their past six games.
First-round matchup: (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +5000
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com, Football Outsiders and rbsdm.com (garbage time removed).
