NFL betting, odds: Let's ride with the Ravens and Lions for our Week 15 teaser
Week 15 of the NFL presents an interesting dynamic for teaser bettors. If you follow the traditional Wong teaser strategy (through the key numbers of three and seven), there is only one option on the board. You can’t put together a two-team teaser with just a single leg. So we’ll have to cautiously go the unconventional route, which has been successful in previous weeks.
As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.
Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price of bigger teasers).
Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Current Week 15 teaser-leg options
Tennessee Titans +8.5 at Los Angeles Chargers, 48.5
Current Week 15 (unconventional) teaser-leg options
Baltimore Ravens +9 at Cleveland Browns, 38
Detroit Lions +7 at New York Jets, 44.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +9 at Carolina Panthers, 37.5
Arizona Cardinals +9 at Denver Broncos, 37
New England Patriots +7 at Las Vegas Raiders, 44.5
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -1, 44.5
Why is it unconventional? Playing a spread at +3 or better is long term more valuable playing as a solo wager instead of tying it to a teaser because of the volatility involved with correctly selecting two winners. In regard to the 7-point spreads, both the Lions and Bills are juiced at a -115 price, which indicates a potential line move making these legs less viable options in a teaser. The Lions will be +6.5 instead of 7 and the Bills would then have to cover -1.5 instead of 1.
Week 15 NFL teaser to bet: Ravens +9/Lions +7
The Ravens' defense has really improved as of late, allowing a league-low 53 rushing yards per game. Plus, the addition of linebacker Roquan Smith has been beneficial with Baltimore’s sack percentage getting a boost. If the Browns have difficulty finding success on the ground, then Cleveland will turn to quarterback Deshaun Watson. Watson has been sacked three times and thrown two interceptions in his two games back. In the red zone, Watson has struggled, completing 25% of his passes. The Ravens' defense has improved, quarterback Tyler Huntley appears to be a go, and Watson has yet to fully adjust to the offense. All this makes Baltimore a solid teaser leg.
I love the Lions this week catching points in a teaser. Detroit running back Jamaal Williams is second in the league in red-zone touches. The Lions score 73% of their touchdowns on the ground on the road. Both data points could be largely beneficial against a Jets rushing defense that ranks 30th in opponent rushing touchdown percentage. The task will be getting downfield to create opportunities to turn drives into points, but I trust Lions head coach Dan Campbell to cook something up to exploit a Jets defense that has given up 20-plus points in back-to-back games.
