NFL betting, odds: 49ers have the highest season win total among NFC teams
The San Francisco 49ers don't know for sure who their quarterback will be in Week 1, yet they have the highest season win total among all NFC teams.
That's a lot of faith in coach Kyle Shanahan and the players around the quarterback position in San Francisco. The season win totals are out at BetMGM, and after looking at the AFC teams, it's time to look at the win total for each NFC team for this season:
Arizona Cardinals — 5.5
This could be the worst team in football. We don't know when Kyler Murray will be healthy or how long it'll take him to look like himself after a torn ACL. DeAndre Hopkins might be on the move. And there's simply not much talent on the roster. It's a low total and I'll still go under, which is -150 odds.
Atlanta Falcons — 7.5
The Falcons splashed around a lot in free agency, and the roster should be better. Arthur Smith has done well to maximize the talent on hand. But I'm still not sold on Desmond Ridder as a viable QB1 for a team that needs to win eight or more games.
Carolina Panthers — 7.5
The over is -140, which is a bit surprising. If you believe the NFL draft odds, Bryce Young will be the Panthers' QB after being drafted first overall in a couple weeks. The Panthers were pretty good after firing Matt Rhule last season, but eight wins still seems like a big ask with a rookie quarterback.
Chicago Bears — 7.5
The Bears offseason hype is a bit confusing to me. Justin Fields had a fun second season, but he still needs to prove some things as a passer. The roster is better but there are still holes. The Bears were 3-14 last season. A five-win improvement is steep. An easy under bet.
Dallas Cowboys — 9.5
The betting market is expecting some regression after a 12-5 season. The offseason hasn't been great, but the same thing was said last offseason and the Cowboys easily beat expectations. I lean to the over.
Detroit Lions — 9.5
It wouldn't surprise me if this is the most popular over bet by the start of the season. First, Michigan bettors like backing their home teams. Also, the Lions might be good. They finished last season strong. They're NFC North favorites and for good reason. The odds on the over are -140 and that will probably continue to rise.
Green Bay Packers — 7.5
The over is probably my favorite bet on the board. We don't know what Jordan Love is, and that doesn't have to be a bad thing. We forget that less than a year ago the talk was how loaded the defense was and how great the running game could be. Most of those pieces are still in place. Rookie receivers from last year flashed and will be better. Love could be terrible replacing Aaron Rodgers, but if he's just OK, the rest of the roster is far better than other teams sitting at 7.5 wins. Let's not leave the Packers for dead yet.
Los Angeles Rams — 7.5
This is a hard team to evaluate. They seem to be in the middle of holding onto the pieces of a Super Bowl team and a rebuild. Everything bottomed out last season but that was due in large part to injuries. Who knows what to expect this season.
Minnesota Vikings — 8.5
Everyone you listen to this offseason is obligated to point out that the 2022 Vikings were lucky. They caught breaks with the schedule and close wins. Still 13 wins in the NFL doesn’t just happen. There’s regression coming, but enough to push the Vikings to 8-9 or worse?
New Orleans Saints — 9.5
This line surprised me a bit. Derek Carr is a big upgrade at quarterback and the NFC South offers some easy wins. Still, this didn’t look like a team that just needed an above-average starter to unlock a 10-win season. I’ll go under, and hope the NFC South can offer some resistance.
New York Giants — 8.5
The over is +115 odds, which means the betting market is taking the under despite a playoff berth for the Giants in Brian Daboll's first season. I don't feel strongly about the over or under but am surprised a lot of the action is on the under.
Philadelphia Eagles — 10.5
It's a little surprising the Eagles aren't at least tied for the highest season win total. They won 14 games last season and nearly won a Super Bowl. The roster has changed some but it's still a great lineup. There's the Super Bowl hangover to worry about, but it seems like the Eagles should be one of the 11.5 teams. The over has -130 odds.
San Francisco 49ers — 11.5
It's hard to take the under because we know how good the 49ers can be, but how do you take the over not knowing who the quarterback will be Week 1, or how Brock Purdy will look once he does return from elbow surgery? It's not like the 49ers can't hit the over, but it's a little surprising they're tied for the highest win total. The under is -130 odds, which indicates bettors were surprised too.
Seattle Seahawks — 8.5
Doubting Pete Carroll has cost a lot of bettors money. Every year, Carroll and the Seahawks seem to fly past expectations. They were in the playoffs last season and were able to bring Geno Smith back. You can make a great case for the under, but Carroll almost always finds a way to hit the over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 6.5
This is a weird season for Tampa. The Bucs were already bad last season, far worse than you remember because they got a division title, though it came in a putrid NFC South. They will Band-Aid the quarterback position with Baker Mayfield after Tom Brady's retirement. But there still are plenty of stars on the roster and the NFC South isn't good.
Washington Commanders — 7.5
If you like the over, you better like Sam Howell. Howell is the presumptive Washington QB this season, though Jacoby Brissett will have a say in that battle. Howell was once thought of as a first-round talent and he could end up being pretty good. It's still a big gamble to think Washington gets to eight wins. The under has -150 odds.
