Top 10 Stanley Cup contenders: NHL's power balance still tilts West as 2014-15 season begins
We’re talking about the West, and Dean Lombardi goes back to the days of the Big Three – the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Detroit Red Wings. The Avs had Patrick Roy and Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg. The Stars had Mike Modano and Joe Nieuwendyk and Brett Hull. The Wings had Steve Yzerman and Nicklas Lidstrom … and on and on. From 1996 to 2002, the Big Three won six of the seven Stanley Cups.
Lombardi brings up a barroom question: Though his Los Angeles Kings have won two of the last three Cups, though they have Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick, could they beat any of the Big Three? Could anybody now that the NHL has a salary cap?
“I don’t know if there will ever be three teams like that again, where each team had about 10 Hall of Famers,” Lombardi says. “I mean, that was ridiculous, the level of players out there in those series. I mean, holy smoke. That might have been the greatest ever played.”
But that leads Lombardi to another question:
“When did the cycle ever go back to the East?” Lombardi says. “I was thinking of that the other day. I’ve been dealing with this crap now since I was in San Jose.”
When Lombardi was general manager of the San Jose Sharks from 1996 to 2003, he kept trying to catch the Big Three. “That was one thing about building in San Jose,” he says. “You knew how far you had to go when you put those three teams on paper.”
Eventually, the Avs and Stars declined. The East won three straight Cups and five out of eight. But if the cycle went back to the East, it didn’t last. The West has won six of the last nine Cups, giving it 12 of the last 18. The Kings and Chicago Blackhawks have won four of the last five. They have become the Big Two.
The key difference: The Kings and Blackhawks have more competitors in their conference than the Big Three did – even though the Wings, who won another Cup in 2008 and have made the playoffs 23 straight seasons, moved to the East last season. The West went 246-150-52 against the East in 2013-14.
Just as Lombardi once tried to catch the Big Three in San Jose – and then tried to catch the ’Hawks in L.A. – others are now trying to catch the Big Two. They’re trying to keep up with each other as well. The effect has been exacerbated by the NHL’s return to a divisional playoff format last season. As they build their teams, GMs have a clearer idea of whom they must beat.
Look at the offseason: While the Kings signed trade-deadline acquisition Marian Gaborik and the Blackhawks added Brad Richards, the Stars added Jason Spezza and Ales Hemsky. The Avs added Jarome Iginla while losing Paul Stastny to … the St. Louis Blues. The Anaheim Ducks added Ryan Kesler, and the Minnesota Wild added Thomas Vanek, and the Nashville Predators added James Neal, and …
“Why isn’t somebody trying to catch the Rangers or Boston or whatever?” Lombardi says with a laugh. “It’s unbelievable.”
Lombardi isn’t alone in his exasperation.
“Why couldn’t some of the Eastern teams jump in here?” says Ducks GM Bob Murray with a smile. “Just kidding. Dallas, for example, oh my god. It’s going to be great for the fans in the West, but it’s tough to be in the Western Conference right now.”
With that in mind, here are our top 10 Stanley Cup contenders entering 2014-15:
1. Chicago Blackhawks
No disrespect to the New York Rangers, the Eastern Conference champions, but the real Stanley Cup Final was the Western Conference final. It went to overtime of Game 7. The Kings won on a deflection and went on to beat the Rangers in five, and now they have a chance to win their third Cup in four years and become a modern-day dynasty. But had the Blackhawks gotten that deflection in OT instead of the Kings, they easily could have had back-to-back Cups and three Cups in five years. “It’s frustrating for sure to know that we could have been in a position to be in the finals again and maybe win, but it didn’t happen,” says winger Patrick Kane. The Blackhawks return the same core of Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith. They have much the same supporting cast. They have every ability to make it three out of six. Wouldn’t that be a modern-day dynasty, too?
2. Los Angeles Kings
The odds are against the Kings. No one has repeated since the Red Wings in 1997 and ’98, and no one has won three Cups in four years since the Edmonton Oilers in 1987, ’88 and ’90, both before the cap. There is too much competition, and too much can go wrong – fatigue, injuries, bad luck. Let’s face it: Everything had to go right for the Kings to win last year. They won by the slimmest of margins, coming back from a 3-0 series deficit in the first round, a 3-2 deficit in the second and a 1-0 deficit in the third – and surviving that Game 7 OT against the Blackhawks. But the Kings lost only one regular, defenseman Willie Mitchell, and will have Gaborik for a full season, which should boost an offense that ranked 26th in 2013-14. There is a swagger about this group. Nothing fazes the Kings. Says winger Justin Williams: “We’re looking forward to being the hunted.”
3. St. Louis Blues
The Blues have been a big disappointment. Three years in a row, they have bowed out of the playoffs with four straight losses – getting swept in the second round, blowing a 2-0 lead in the first round twice. But remember: They lost to the Kings twice and to the Blackhawks. They’re right behind the Big Two. They are still a big, heavy, deep, structured team that is a pain to play against – a possession monster. Stastny strengthens them down the middle. The biggest issues are goaltending and looking too far ahead. They can’t prove themselves until the playoffs, and they know it, but they must play 82 games first. “For me, taking the next step is an overreach,” says coach Ken Hitchcock. “Before we can even think about getting to the next step, we’ve got to get into the playoffs.”
4. Boston Bruins
The Bruins remain the team to beat in the East. They won the Cup in 2011, returned to the final in 2013 and won the Presidents’ Trophy last season. They have the reigning Vezina winner in goal in Tuukka Rask, a Norris winner on defense in Zdeno Chara and a Selke winner at center in Patrice Bergeron. But Chara is 37 now, and the salary cap has been cruel, costing the Bruins Iginla and Johnny Boychuk. They lost a seven-game second-round series to the archrival Montreal Canadiens last season mostly because of a lack of composure and speed. “I don’t think it’s a secret that we haven’t played really good against them, and I think one of the biggest reasons is their speed and how they like to stretch us out,” Rask says. “They’ve had our number for a couple years, and we have to figure that out.”
5. Pittsburgh Penguins
Five years without a Cup final was too many. So out went GM Ray Shero and coach Dan Bylsma, in came Jim Rutherford and Mike Johnston. Rutherford added more grit and depth to the supporting cast, and Johnston brought a new approach – puck possession. Instead of chipping the puck up ice, stretching out and crashing on the forecheck, the Penguins will try to control the puck and attack as a unit. In theory, that should lead to more offensive zone time and less defensive zone time. That should take pressure off goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, and that should make the most of some of the most skilled players in the league – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. “If your coach is saying he wants to hold onto the puck as much as possible,” says Crosby, the reigning scoring champion and MVP, “that means more ability to make plays.”
6. Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks were the best team in the best conference last season with 116 points. They held a 3-2 lead over the eventual Cup champs in the second round. But the Kings blew them out in Game 7 on home ice, and Murray made changes. Most notably he acquired Kesler, the abrasive, do-it-all center he tried to acquire at the trade deadline. Kesler should help on faceoffs, handle hard defensive assignments and free up Ryan Getzlaf for more offensive situations. Murray might not be done. He’s still looking for a top-notch defenseman. In the meantime, he needs young defensemen Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen to keep developing, and he needs young goalies Frederik Andersen and John Gibson to excel. All that matters is the playoffs. “Let’s just get in,” Murray says. “I don’t need any first places. … As was proven last year, home ice is not what it used to be in the game of hockey. So let’s just get there and be healthy.”
7. San Jose Sharks
This is not a rebuild. It’s a rebound. The Sharks are coming off their worst playoff defeat yet, after blowing a 3-0 series lead in the first round against the Kings. GM Doug Wilson said he was going young and openly wondered whether some vets would want to stay. He also revealed some players told him they felt more like co-workers than teammates. Coach Todd McLellan stripped Joe Thornton of his ‘C’ and Patrick Marleau of his ‘A.’ But Thornton and Marleau aren’t going anywhere because of their no-trade clauses, and neither is this team – as long as the Sharks are united by all this and not divided by it. There is a tension, but there is still talent, too. “I still think we have a good team,” Thornton says. “We’ve got so many guys coming into or in the prime of their careers, and they’re just going to get better and better, and it’s going to be exciting to watch.” Well, it’s going to be interesting to watch, one way or another.
8. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Canadiens could be on this list. They beat the Bruins to go to the Eastern Conference final last season. Before that, they swept the Lightning. But remember: The Bolts didn’t have Vezina finalist Ben Bishop in that series. They finished a point ahead of the Habs in the regular season, despite Steven Stamkos missing a long stretch with a broken leg and Martin St-Louis going to the Rangers at the deadline. They re-signed heart-and-soul forward Ryan Callahan, and they added several veterans in the offseason – Anton Stralman, Brian Boyle, Jason Garrison, Brenden Morrow, Evgeni Nabokov. The vets can mentor and support. This is a team with a 24-year-old MVP-caliber center (Stamkos), a 23-year-old stud defenseman (Victor Hedman), two Calder finalists last season (Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson) and a Calder candidate this season (Jonathan Drouin). Says Hedman: “I think we have a very talented group.”
9. Dallas Stars
The Avs could be on this list, but they have little room to improve and lots of room to regress after posting 112 points last season. They have a ton of young talent, but they need to show they can sustain their success the way they play – allowing so many shots, relying so much on goalie Semyon Varlamov. The Stars, however, still have lots of room to improve after posting 91 points and snapping their five-year playoff drought. Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin broke out last season; now the Stars add Spezza and Hemsky. The defense remains a question mark, but Seguin says: “We have guys that are kind of like Jamie Benn, that haven’t been seen yet in that spotlight. We have guys that are going to fool some people and surprise some people.” If Seguin’s right, look out. The Stars have scary speed and skill. “I think everyone’s real excited to see just how much better we can be,” Seguin says. “This year we’re putting a little more expectations on ourselves and have even more confidence.”
10. New York Rangers
The Rangers got better and better in their first season under new coach Alain Vigneault, who emphasized their speed and skill, turned them into a good possession team and took them to the final. But there have been significant changes, and the roster doesn’t look as good. Gone are Richards, Brian Boyle, Derek Dorsett, Benoit Pouliot and Stralman. In are Dan Boyle, Tanner Glass, Matt Hunwick and Lee Stempniak. Derek Stepan is out at least the first couple of weeks with a broken leg. At least the Rangers aren’t adjusting to a new system anymore, have St-Louis for a full season and still have goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. “Even if you have the same team, you’re not sure where you are,” Lundqvist says. “You have to start over. You have to work hard to get back to the level where everyone needs to be. There’s always different parts that need to glue together.”
