Silva's July Rankings, 101-200
This is the second portion of my two-part Fantasy Football Top 200 Rankings for the month of July. For an explanation of how I rank and full writeups on all players ranked 1-100, bang it here.
101. Russell Wilson -- Wilson has ranked 11th and 10th in seasonal quarterback scoring through his first two NFL seasons, but Seattle's run-heavy offense caps his weekly impact, as does an impenetrable defense that consistently allows the Seahawks to feature the run as well as blow out opponents. There are no indications Seattle's defense and run game are poised for 2014 steps back. Coach Pete Carroll confirmed in June the Seahawks have no plans to open up their offense. "We want to run the football whenever we want to," he said. "We are an absolutely committed running football team." Wilson plays fantasy's most replaceable position and isn't an every-week starter.
102. Ray Rice -- Rice's early sixth-round ADP is awfully aggressive for a running back coming off a 3.08 YPC season and now facing a multi-game suspension. Leave out Week 11 against the Bears' historically sieve-ish run defense, and Rice managed 529 yards and three touchdowns on 189 carries (2.80 YPC) in his other 14 appearances last year. Rice allegedly played most of the season through a painful hip injury, and has shed weight in an effort to regain burst and change of direction. It's still entirely possible past workloads have simply caught up with him. Greg Schiano ran Rice 910 times in three seasons as a college player, and including playoffs Rice has amassed 1,621 more across six years in the NFL. I'm just going to let someone else draft him.
103. Christine Michael -- Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell's "running back committee" spring vow may ring hollow, but C-Mike still oozes prospective value, and enough of it to begin considering in the ninth and tenth rounds. It isn't a stretch to call 23-year-old Michael's sheer running ability top ten in the NFL right now, while both coach Pete Carroll and GM John Schneider have pinpointed him as a 2014 breakout player. Michael may need a Lynch injury to fully break out from a fantasy perspective, of course. Lynch, 28, has amassed a league-high 1,002 carries over the past three years, including playoffs. Some may view the fact that Lynch has missed just one game over the past four seasons as proof of his durability. Others may see him as primed for injury regression.
104. Julian Edelman -- Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson, Shane Vereen, and Danny Amendola combined to miss 37 games last season, creating a perfect storm for Edelman, whose 151 targets ranked tenth among NFL wideouts. While Edelman deserves a butt-slap for admirably filling Tom Brady's go-to receiver role, I don't believe New England wants him doing that heavy lifting going forward. Look for the Pats to scale back Edelman's snaps and usage while Dobson, Gronk, Brandon LaFell, Vereen, and Amendola siphon targets. At 5-foot-10, 195 with a career 10.2 yards-per-reception average, Edelman is dependent on volume, and now virtually certain to lose a ton of it. I see him as a WR4 in standard leagues and dicey WR3 in PPR.
105. Pierre Thomas -- Darren Sproles missed four games over the past two seasons. Thomas' per-game average in those contests is just over nine touches for 68 scoreless yards. Sproles' exit creates opportunity in New Orleans, but much of it is likely to go to Khiry Robinson, and Mark Ingram also returns. I see Thomas as a scoring-specific fantasy back. He could offer every-week flex value in PPR, but is a tougher sell as a starter in standard settings. The Saints are going to give Thomas a lot of snaps, but the 29-year-old has no real chance to become a bellcow.
106. Khiry Robinson -- Whereas Thomas is the Saints back to target in PPR leagues, 24-year-old Robinson offers the highest standard-league ceiling. The Sproles trade speaks to Sean Payton's desire to employ a more traditional under-center run game, while Payton mentor Bill Parcells allegedly compared Robinson to Curtis Martin in private conversations with Payton late last year. Robinson promptly led the Saints in carries (13-57-1) during their final playoff game. Also no stranger to the passing game, Robinson piled up 60 receptions in just two college seasons. He's a sneaky RB2/flex breakout candidate who's acquirable at an RB4 cost.
107. Darren Sproles -- The first things that stand out about Sproles are his age (31) and declining role, usage, and playmaking ability under offensive mastermind Sean Payton, on top of the savvy Saints' willingness to trade him away. Chip Kelly is a genius in his own right and traded for Sproles, of course, but I'm skeptical how much of an impact he's still capable of from a fantasy standpoint. I do think Sproles could be a PPR asset, and will be part of a committee approach to replace DeSean Jackson. At his seventh-round ADP, I'll be avoiding him in standard leagues.
108. Emmanuel Sanders -- Sanders' sixth-round Average Draft Position feels like a trap. NFL coaches admire players with Sanders' versatility and efficiency, but he's never transferred on-field effectiveness into big box-score stats. While entering Peyton Manning's offense is nice, Sanders played with an awfully good quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger the last four seasons, and never finished above fantasy WR33. From 5-foot-11, 186-pound Sanders, don't expect a repeat of 6-foot-3, 217-pound Eric Decker's numbers. I'm fine grabbing Sanders as a WR3/4 option, but I'll avoid him when the cost is on par with borderline WR2s. At current ADPs, I'd much rather take sixth- and seventh-round stabs on Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace, Marques Colston, and Golden Tate.
Round Ten
109. Marvin Jones -- Cincinnati's No. 3 playmaker behind A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, Jones overcame an inexplicable No. 2 receiver rotation with vastly inferior Mohamed Sanu to register a 51-712-10 line as an NFL sophomore. He only played 50% of the offensive snaps. Unfortunately, 24-year-old Jones' TD rate is unsustainable, and new OC Hue Jackson intends to scale back passing. Even if Jones' playing time spikes, his targets probably won't. I see Jones as a steady WR4 who should have some WR3 weeks, but may never be a truly trustworthy fantasy starter.
110. Mike Evans -- I think Evans has the best shot of all this year's rookie receivers to become a long-term top-five WR1. I'm skeptical he'll offer much consistency in year one. The odds are against rookie wideouts from the get-go, while Lovie Smith's run-first philosophy combined with Vincent Jackson's target-commanding presence will likely render Evans touchdown dependent a la the man he's replacing in Tampa Bay, Mike Williams. I do like Evans as a WR4 in TD-heavy leagues. But I don't think there's a strong chance he becomes an immediate fantasy starter.
111. Fred Jackson -- Jackson deserves credit for last year's unforeseeable top-ten fantasy back finish, and all signs point to him maintaining a meaningful role in Buffalo's high-volume backfield. To put the improbability of last year's stats into perspective, however, Jackson had never been a top-12 fantasy runner before in his career. As F-Jax will be 33 1/2 years old when this season starts, the Bills have prepared to turn the keys elsewhere, trading a fourth-round pick for Bryce Brown. C.J. Spiller returns as the team's most talented back. The end is near for Jackson, and the Bills know it. I'd rather write off Jackson a year too early than a year too late.
112. Chris Ivory -- Leave out Ivory's 69-yard run from Week 11, and last year's "4.6" YPC dips to 4.22. That per-carry clip signals the kind of grinding, Lynchian runner Ivory is, though, and he'll serve in that capacity between the tackles while changing the pace behind Chris Johnson. As long as Johnson is healthy, expect 26-year-old Ivory's weekly fantasy production to be inconsistent and dependent upon goal-line scores. He's losing carries and has never been effective in the pass game.
113. Colin Kaepernick -- Kap's ranking is low because his track record is replacement-level in a standard fantasy league. In most weeks, you can find waiver-wire quarterbacks capable of turning in similar or superior stats. From a projection standpoint, what makes Kap's outlook interesting is his obvious dual-threat talent, San Francisco's improved weapons, and the 49ers' All-Pro defensive losses of Navorro Bowman and Aldon Smith. Kaepernick's box-score results could soar if the 49ers have more competitive games and get involved in some shootouts.
114. Maurice Jones-Drew -- I expect to form a stronger opinion on Oakland's backfield in camp, but going in the coaching staff seems to be planning on a near-even timeshare between Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden. While I wouldn't be willing to spend much draft capital on either -- late-round measurables freak Latavius Murray may actually prove the best cost-based gamble -- I do believe MJD will assert himself as the top lead-back option with superior between-the-tackles ability to DMC. There is also some reason to believe the Raiders' line could be decent under OL coach Tony Sparano. They signed LT Donald Penn and RG Austin Howard in March, drafted LG Gabe Jackson, return C Stefen Wisniewski, and have inserted Menelik Watson at right tackle.
115. Lance Dunbar -- New Cowboys OC Scott Linehan has used both one- and two-back systems before. His most recent experience came with the latter, involving Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. Bush accounted for 277 touches last year, Bell 219. Linehan will skew more heavily to DeMarco Murray, but Dunbar is ticketed for a significant role in the offense. 24-year-old Dunbar averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 30 totes in 2013, and the Cowboys are smitten with his passing-game skills. Also a worthwhile handcuff, Dunbar could be an every-week starter if Murray went down. People who caught last year's Raiders-Cowboys Thanksgiving game probably remember Dunbar. He turned 13 touches into 94 yards. I like him as an RB4 with an outside chance at flex value.
116. Ladarius Green -- Question marks surrounding 24-year-old Green don't concern his talent. He's 6-foot-6, 240 and runs like a deer, clocking 4.53 at the 2012 Combine with a highly explosive 10-foot-4 broad jump. For comparison, Jimmy Graham's pre-draft measurables were 4.56 and 10-foot-0 at 6'6/260. The question is whether San Diego will commit to Green as a featured weapon, scheming him the ball. Utilized as a one-trick-pony deep threat and jump-ball specialist last year, Green could be freed up to run more short and intermediate routes this season with lanky sideline threat Malcom Floyd returning. A promising 2013 stat was Green's snap-rate climb from 21.2% over San Diego's initial 11 games, to 59.7% over the final seven, including playoffs. The coaching staff obviously knows Green has a ton of on-field value. Fantasy owners securing him as a TE2 will hope that translates to spikes in targets and usage. If Green can establish himself as Philip Rivers' No. 2 passing-game option to Keenan Allen's No. 1, he'll offer a top-five TE1 ceiling.
117. James Jones -- The Raiders have all the makings of a dysfunctional offense, particularly in the passing game. But, hey, someone's got to catch Matt Schaub's passes. (I'm talking about the ones that aren't returned for touchdowns by the other team.) Easily Oakland's most accomplished pass catcher, 30-year-old Jones is a sneaky bet for 70-plus receptions, and has long been a useful red-zone weapon. The Raiders have clearly soured on Denarius Moore, leaving Rod Streater, Andre Holmes, Mychal Rivera, and David Ausberry as Jones' competition for targets.
118. Martellus Bennett -- A relatively steady performer, albeit one who puts owners at a weekly disadvantage versus top-tier tight ends, Bennett finished as last season's TE10 overall, ranking eighth at his position in targets. He's quite clearly behind Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte on Chicago's passing-game totem pole, however, and sophomore Marquess Wilson is a much higher-ceiling No. 3 wideout than outgoing Earl Bennett. As Martellus' upside is already capped, I'd be concerned about any step back whatsoever in 2014 usage. I still think he's very much roster worthy in 12-team leagues as a trustworthy TE2 and lower-end starter.
119. Charles Clay -- Clay is a very useful real-life player whose 2013 fantasy output benefited from ex-OC Mike Sherman's scheme, which frequently utilized Mike Wallace as a clear-out guy and fed targets to slot receivers and H-back Clay underneath. New OC Bill Lazor is emphasizing getting Wallace the ball this year, and will scale back overall team pass attempts. Those factors don't bode particularly well for Clay's chances of continuing to play a high-volume role in Miami's offense. I'd much rather own Clay as a TE2 than rely on him as a TE1, even in a two-tight end fantasy rotation. It's worth noting Lazor spent 2013 in Philadelphia, where neither Zach Ertz nor Brent Celek was consistently involved in the passing game. Ertz managed 469 yards, Celek 502.
120. Andrew Hawkins -- "Baby Hawk" caught 51 passes in 14 games with the 2012 Bengals, showing some ability to handle a reasonably heavy workload in spite of his 5-foot-7, 180-pound frame. Although his ceiling is limited by size, explosive jitterbug Hawkins has a chance to pile up catches as Cleveland's top wide receiver, working in tandem with Jordan Cameron. Now coaching Johnny Manziel, new Browns OC Kyle Shanahan will run an offense similar to Washington's two years ago, when Skins slot man Santana Moss (5'10/189) caught eight TDs. There are reasons to believe Hawkins could be a WR3 asset, particularly in PPR leagues. He has a lot of opportunity.
Round Eleven
121. Hakeem Nicks -- I documented Nicks' NFL injury history in last August's Shy-Away 40 column, and it's jaw dropping. He's experienced a steady decline since being diagnosed with compartment syndrome in his right leg in 2010. Including playoffs, Nicks has three touchdowns over his last 29 games. Is he a good bet to rebound? General managers around the league don't seem to believe so, as Nicks generated scant interest on the 2014 free agent market before settling on a one-year, $4 million offer from Indianapolis. Nicks will contend with a deep cast of pass catchers to earn consistent targets from Andrew Luck. I'm willing to gamble a tenth- or eleventh-round pick on Nicks, but would comfortably balk at his current ninth-round ADP.
122. Justin Hunter -- Hunter flashed WR1 talent down the stretch of his rookie season, parlaying increased snaps into 6-109-1 and 4-114-1 lines in Weeks 12 and 14. Only 23, Hunter's time is coming, even if there are reasons to think it won't happen this year. Tennessee's QB situation is shaky. New coach Ken Whisenhunt may be planning on a run-based offense. It's unclear whether Hunter will start over Nate Washington. Kendall Wright may continue to ballhog in the middle of the field. Hunter is still growing into his body. I expect unpredictable 2014 blowups surrounded by bouts of inconsistency. Hunter remains a high-ceiling WR4 with a dirt-cheap 14th-round ADP.
123. Jordan Matthews -- Matthews starred at OTAs, but his outlook was intriguing long before reporting to non-contact practices. Entering a top-five NFL offense losing (easily) its most productive receiver, Matthews is ticketed for Marques Colston duties in the slot between role player Riley Cooper and a wideout coming off an ACL tear in Jeremy Maclin. At 6-foot-3, 212, Matthews should be an immediate red-zone threat whose targets and usage could grow by the week. Although there are probably too many mouths to feed in Chip Kelly's run-first offense for Matthews to turn in Colston rookie stats (70-1,038-8), I like him as a WR4 sleeper.
124. Cecil Shorts -- Fantasy owners have long been able to bank on garbage-time production from Shorts in a largely unchallenged No. 1 wideout role. I think Jacksonville will be much more competitive this season than in years past, and Shorts' competition for targets is far stiffer after the Jaguars used second-round picks on Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, who are both better talents than Shorts. Marcedes Lewis is healthy after missing five games last season, and being hobbled in many others. Not only is Shorts' upside diminishing, his consistency is in doubt.
125. Carlos Hyde -- Hyde has a lot of similarities to Eddie Lacy, albeit without the proven passing-game chops. The second-round pick struggled in blitz pickup at Ohio State and managed 16 receptions last season. Still, Hyde is in a great spot as the likely No. 2 to 31-year-old Frank Gore's No. 1, with Kendall Hunter in the change-of-pace role. I'm not sold on Marcus Lattimore making any 2014 impact. If Gore goes down or tails off -- and there are many reasons to believe the latter has already happened -- Hyde will be the favorite for early-down and goal-line work, with Hunter playing on passing downs. Hyde would likely become an every-week RB2 if Gore missed time.
126. Jonathan Stewart -- According to the Charlotte Observer, Stewart "showed great burst every time he touched the ball" during OTAs and minicamp. Left for dead by the vast majority of fantasy leaguers based on his injury history, Stewart has quietly enjoyed his healthiest offseason since college, and is 27 years old to DeAngelo Williams' 31. 27 is historically the peak age for running backs, while Williams' YPC average figures to decrease for a third straight season. An ideal late-round flier, Stewart has long possessed RB1 talent, and Carolina needs more from its run game due to deficiencies at receiver. J-Stew is talented and young with lots of opportunity.
127. Brian Hartline -- A segment of the fantasy football community likes Hartline and believes he is underrated. There's certainly a case to be made for that. He's quietly finished as a top-34 wide receiver in back-to-back years, and caught at least four passes in 12-of-16 games last season, providing PPR stability. And you can't beat the price with an undrafted ADP. I do think Hartline is worth rostering as a WR4 late, but philosophically prefer my late-round stabs to offer higher ceilings. Sixth-year veteran Hartline has seven receiving touchdowns over his last 64 games.
128. James Starks -- The 2014 Packers will score a lot of TDs. I wouldn't mind rostering 3-4 shares of Green Bay's offense, including high-ceiling backups. Starks won't make much noise if Eddie Lacy plays 16 games, but could flirt with RB1 stats if Lacy got hurt. Playing behind Lacy in 2013, Starks led the NFL in YPC (5.54) among players with 80-plus carries. Johnathan Franklin is out of the picture, and GM Ted Thompson's decision to re-sign 28-year-old Starks indicates he's comfortably ahead of DuJuan Harris. Starks has more value than a typical handcuff.
129. Danny Woodhead -- Woodhead opened last season in a high-volume Sprolesian role before taking a second-half backseat to Ryan Mathews, to whom the Chargers committed bellcow work. Whereas Woodhead averaged nearly 13 touches per game over the initial eight weeks, he dipped to ten over the final eight. Donald Brown and Marion Grice now pose threats to Woodhead's playing time. At age 29, Woodhead is more of a backup PPR flex than standard-league asset.
130. Knowshon Moreno -- After waiting longer than he probably planned to find a taker in free agency, Moreno reported to OTAs out of shape, before undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery. Despite his relative 2013 success running against tissue-soft defensive fronts alongside Peyton Manning, Moreno possesses inferior running ability to Lamar Miller and is best suited for a passing-down role. Moreno could move up this list if he begins to put heat on Miller in training camp, but for now I feel pretty confident Miller will open the season as Miami's top back.
131. DeAngelo Williams -- Williams operated as Carolina's clear lead back last season, turning 201 carries into 843 yards (4.19 YPC) and three touchdowns. Vultured by Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert eight times, Williams was rarely start-able in fantasy leagues despite finishing as the RB21 overall and having to deal with Jonathan Stewart's competition for carries for only six games. Short on both yardage and touchdown upside, Williams is a volume-dependent, low-ceiling RB3/4 at best, who will lose volume to a healthy Stewart. I prefer to aim higher with my fantasy picks.
132. Bryce Brown -- Brown has his fair share of deficiencies -- he over-aggressively bounces too many runs outside, has a history of fumbling, and remains a work in progress as a pass protector -- but he's a 23-year-old running back with 4.48 speed, and the run-heaviest team in football just traded for him. No. 1 back C.J. Spiller is not a true workhorse, and No. 2 back Fred Jackson is 33 1/2 years old. Coach Doug Marrone also has a history of three-back usage. Serving as Saints OC in 2008, Marrone oversaw an offense that gave Pierre Thomas, Deuce McAllister, and Reggie Bush each between 106 and 129 carries. Although I'm not confident Brown will have standalone value with the 2014 Bills, I want to stash his upside on my bench. His current ADP is undrafted.
Round Twelve
133. Andy Dalton -- Owners drafting Dalton based on last year's stats are likely to be disappointed in 2014, perhaps severely. Whereas outgoing OC Jay Gruden allowed Dalton to fire off the eighth most pass attempts (586) in football, the Bengals' website believes new OC Hue Jackson wants Dalton closer to the Russell Wilson range of 407. Jackson has prioritized cutting down turnovers after Dalton committed 23 in 2013, including the NFL's fifth most interceptions (20). The best way to do that is to limit Dalton's impact on games. The box-score beneficiaries will be Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Dalton is being turned into a game manager during his contract year.
134. Roy Helu -- Alfred Morris is the clear feature back in D.C., but Helu's superior passing-game skills earned him 46.7% of the Redskins' 2013 snaps, and new coach Jay Gruden's system is more pass-oriented than the outgoing Shanahans'. Morris never exceeded 15 receptions in a college season, and has topped out at 11 in the pros. Despite his "backup" role, Helu has 87 catches through 34 NFL games. As Gruden's history suggests a willingness to utilize backfield committees, Helu could offer standalone PPR flex value in addition to being Morris' handcuff.
135. Alex Smith -- Andy Reid did masterful work with Smith in their first season together, expanding him over the course of the year and building him up. By the stretch run, Smith showed more willingness to pull the trigger on contested and 12-plus-yard throws than ever before in his career. Smith wound up with career highs in passing scores (23), yards (3,313), and rushing yards (431) en route to a No. 16 fantasy quarterback finish. Smith can be a stable, reliable QB2, but his upside is obviously restricted by his limited ability, and his supporting cast arguably got worse in the offseason, losing three key offensive linemen to free agency. The Chiefs remain weak at No. 2 receiver. Ultimately, drafting Smith is a matter of personal preference. He's not my cup of tea.
136. Johnny Manziel -- I'm not confident in Manziel starting Week 1, but do believe he'll be under center by Cleveland's Week 4 bye, perhaps with Brian Hoyer getting the nod against Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Baltimore to open the season. Whenever Manziel takes the reins, he'll offer huge weekly upside as ex-Redskins OC Kyle Shanahan installs a 2012 RG3-like offense with the Browns. Manziel is an extremely aggressive intermediate and vertical passer, and will supplement the box score with rushing stats. I like him as a best-ball pick and in-season waiver claim for QB streamers. Josh Gordon's loss hurts, but isn't a death blow to Manziel's outlook. RG3 was a top-five per-game QB scorer in 2012 with Pierre Garcon hobbled all season, and Santana Moss, Josh Morgan, and Fred Davis in go-to receiving roles. Jordan Cameron is way better than all of them.
137. Ahmad Bradshaw -- Appearing in three games before last year's season-ending neck injury, Bradshaw logged a 4.54 YPC on 41 attempts, caught seven passes, and was his typically strong pass-blocking self. The Colts desperately want Trent Richardson to succeed, but there's a real chance Bradshaw could emerge as this year's Donald Brown if T-Rich's ineffectiveness continues. Healthy now, Bradshaw has plenty of juice left in his legs and is a capable three-down performer. There is a compelling amount of prospective value in a rock-solid No. 2 back behind a struggling No. 1. I don't think Bradshaw will have trouble holding off Vick Ballard for clear-backup duties.
138. Knile Davis -- Running back is the most critical skill position in Andy Reid's Chiefs offense. In 2013, Jamaal Charles was the only tailback in football to lead his team in targets, catches, yards, and receiving TDs. Davis' usage in last year's Week 17 spot start and playoff loss to Indy -- after Charles' early-game concussion -- suggests Reid's offense would not change in the event of a Charles injury. They'd simply drop Davis into Charles' role. In those two games, Davis turned 54 touches into 186 yards and four all-purpose touchdowns. He'll be an RB1 if Charles misses time.
139. Greg Jennings -- Admittedly, I may be too low on Jennings. His 2013 splits with Matt Cassel certainly suggest so. Jennings had an 88-1,018-8 seasonal pace in Cassel's eight appearances, and a 55-674-0 projection with everyone else. I still can't bring myself to love Jennings. He's entering his age-31 campaign with shaky and/or rookie quarterback play. Kyle Rudolph is healthy after missing half of last year. Cordarrelle Patterson is ascending. The Vikes seem determined to be run oriented under defensive-minded Mike Zimmer. I want more upside from my WR4/5 picks.
140. C.J. Anderson -- GM John Elway has stated clearly and repeatedly that the Broncos view Ronnie Hillman as a pace changer as opposed to a workhorse. Even if Montee Ball went down or got benched, I'm not sure Hillman's role would change much. A light-footed bowling ball runner with a game similar to Zac Stacy's, Anderson would become the favorite for early-down and goal-line carries in the Ball-injury scenario, offering an enticing ceiling in Peyton Manning's attack.
141. Jarrett Boykin -- In the nine games where Boykin played 40 or more snaps last season, he racked up 41 catches for 582 yards (14.2 YPR) and three touchdowns, good for a 73-1,035-6 seasonal pace. There's little doubt Boykin is a capable producer with playing time. Whether he'll get it consistently this year is the question. All of those games were played without Randall Cobb, and promising rookie Davante Adams will be breathing down Boykins' neck. With James Jones and Jermichael Finley out of the picture, there is definitely some potential for a fantasy value pick here. With Jordy Nelson and Cobb healthy, there's also a chance Boykin won't do much.
142. Darren McFadden -- McFadden is going on 27 -- historically the peak age for running backs -- but has averaged 3.3 YPC in back-to-back years, and now must contend with Maurice Jones-Drew in addition to Latavius Murray. I do believe there's a chance McFadden ascends to the top of Oakland's running back depth chart, but there are no guarantees, and ultimately the odds may be against it. DMC still has big-play ability and three-down tools. I think he's worth stashing on the end of a fantasy bench to see what happens in camp. The Raiders do have the makings of a respectable O-Line, and enough front-seven defensive talent to keep them competitive in games.
143. Chris Polk -- Although Darren Sproles will surely be listed "No. 2" on Philadelphia's tailback depth chart, Polk is likely second in line for between-the-tackles carries, and would assume lead back work in the event of a LeSean McCoy injury. Even if it is dependent upon unforeseeable injury, there is value in speculative value, and Polk's would skyrocket if McCoy missed time. A plus receiver and pass blocker in his own right, Polk is a gets-what's-blocked runner capable of handling heavy workloads. Chip Kelly's offense could turn 24-year-old Polk into a short-term star.
144. Mark Ingram -- You have to squint to picture Ingram as a start-able 2014 fantasy commodity. But he's likely ticketed for a significant role in New Orleans' offense after finishing last season with a bang. Including playoffs, over the Saints' final ten games Ingram rushed 85 times for 482 yards (5.67 YPC) and two TDs, even adding ten catches with an additional score. Still only 24 years old, Ingram enjoyed a healthy offseason and now enters his contract year. Khiry Robinson offers more upside in 2014, but Ingram is a definite threat to him, and could be a viable flex option if Robinson or Pierre Thomas went down. Coach Sean Payton has hinted he wants to run more this season.
Round Thirteen
145. Dwayne Allen -- Things could get interesting for Indianapolis skill-position players if OC Pep Hamilton embraces the fact that his roster strengths are in the passing game, and Pep's preferred run-based offense simply doesn't fit his personnel. If the Colts do open things up, it's conceivable Allen could emerge as Andrew Luck's primary red-zone target. Allen scored eight TDs among 50 catches as a 21-year-old at Clemson, and is a far more reliable pass catcher than Coby Fleener. He's also the Colts' heaviest, most physical weapon. I like him as a TE2 with TE1 scoring upside.
146. Antonio Gates -- Now 34, Gates is no longer a threatening pass-game weapon, failing to top 50 receiving yards in eight consecutive games to close out last season. Look for Keenan Allen, Ladarius Green, and Malcom Floyd's 2014 roles to grow at Gates' expense. I've seen fantasy analysts pinpoint Gates as a possible value pick. I prefer to pursue higher ceilings in the late rounds.
147. LeGarrette Blount -- Standalone start-ability is unlikely for Blount behind true every-down back Le'Veon Bell, but he's one of the stronger handcuff picks in fantasy. 27-year-old Blount has always been a blocking-dependent runner, and Pittsburgh's line is as sturdy as it's been in years, returning all five starters with C Maurkice Pouncey healthy and Mike Munchak now overseeing the position group. Bell drafters should keep an eye on Blount's red-zone usage in preseason games. A designated goal-line role could deal a substantial blow to Le'Veon's value.
148. Anquan Boldin -- Boldin should remain an impact real-life player for the Niners, but his days of fantasy impact are likely over. With Stevie Johnson and a healthy Michael Crabtree added to Jim Harbaugh's offense, Boldin figures to fall from last year's 21st-most-targeted wideout into the 30s or even 40s. Turning 34 in October, look for Boldin to become a role player on the run-first 49ers. Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and running backs will be San Francisco's featured weapons.
149. Riley Cooper -- Leave out two November affairs against the punching-bag Raiders and depleted Packers, and Cooper managed 39 catches for 594 yards and three TDs in Philadelphia's other 14 regular season games. He lacks a consistent week-to-week role in Chip Kelly's offense, primarily blocking on the perimeter and finishing 54th among NFL receivers in targets. Cooper can make plays on occasion -- he's big and runs reasonably well -- but Kelly doesn't scheme to get him the ball. And there are now more mouths to feed in Philly, with Jeremy Maclin healthy, rookie Jordan Matthews playing the slot, Zach Ertz ascending, and Darren Sproles joining the backfield.
150. Devonta Freeman -- Freeman profiles similarly to Shane Vereen as a quick-footed runner, pro-ready pass blocker, and adept receiver. He'll have to catch breaks to become a re-draft league asset, though. Freeman certainly needs 31-year-old Steven Jackson to miss time, and even then would only have a chance to be the lead back in a committee with Jacquizz Rodgers. Freeman is a good football player, and I was a fan of the selection when Atlanta called his name in the fourth round. But he's just an interesting bench stash in deeper leagues, particularly PPR.
151. Cody Latimer -- It's tough to use re-draft picks on rookies who are no better than their team's No. 4 receiver. I do really like Latimer in best-ball and MFL10 fantasy games. Latimer may open the season as a healthy game-day scratch, but would likely become a near-every-down player if Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders, or Demaryius Thomas missed time. (Note that 33-year-old Welker suffered two concussions last year.) This assumes Latimer beats out Andre Caldwell, of course. I like Latimer as a candidate for a few late-season blowup games. The second-round pick from Indiana boasts sub-4.4 wheels at 6-foot-3, 215. He's Eric Decker's eventual replacement.
152. Andre Williams -- Williams is on the borderline of being draft-worthy in 12-team leagues, and his outlook should be tied to your personal opinion of Rashad Jennings. To me, Jennings is a just-above replacement-level running back who does everything well enough to earn the trust of a coaching staff. Keep an eye on Williams in camp, particularly reports on his pass blocking. His game is reminiscent of Michael Turner's as a downhill, north-south power runner, albeit with bricks for hands. He could put pressure on Jennings if he shows he can block. Working against Williams is a muddy backfield that also includes Peyton Hillis, Michael Cox, and David Wilson.
153. Jake Locker -- I'm not a fan of Locker in real life, but he's always had intriguing fantasy tools. He's a powerful, fast, and elusive runner (career 73-502-6.9-4 rushing), and his arm strength is impressive, even if his accuracy is flawed. Locker also has an interesting supporting cast, with big-play threat Justin Hunter entering his second year and Kendall Wright already broken out. Tennessee also has a strong offensive line. Locker is a high-ceiling QB2 and two-quarterback-league pick. There should be a handful of weeks where he's a top-ten scorer at his position.
154. Garrett Graham -- The three-year, $11.25 million deal Houston paid Graham after hiring Bill O'Brien suggests the rookie coach envisions him as a significant piece in the new scheme. Long a proponent of two-tight end sets, O'Brien's 2011 Patriots offense produced stat lines of 79-910-7 and 90-1,327-17 from Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, respectively. Graham's talent is nowhere near those two tight ends, of course, and Ryan Fitzpatrick can't hold Tom Brady's jock, but Graham will be an every-down player with a potentially major pass-game role between Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins. Going on 28, Graham is one of this year's most interesting TE2s.
155. Doug Baldwin -- After signing a three-year, $13 million extension, Baldwin will inherit Golden Tate's "X" position in Seattle's run-heavy offense, where his predecessor finished 40th among receivers in targets. Percy Harvin's return, second-round pick Paul Richardson, a healthy Sidney Rice, and second-year TE Luke Willson's ascension all bode poorly for Baldwin's chances of equaling Tate's production, which wasn't very helpful in fantasy in the first place. The Seahawks rotate wideouts and use them as complementary pieces while pounding the rock with Marshawn Lynch. A low-ceiling WR4/5, Baldwin may not be a confident fantasy play at any point this year.
156. Andre Brown -- Naturally a coaches' pet because he does all things well -- though nothing spectacularly -- Brown brings to Houston a steady 4.09 career YPC average as the clear backup to Arian Foster. Fellow reserves Dennis Johnson and Jonathan Grimes failed to impress on their 2013 opportunities, while sixth-round pick Alfred Blue is a poor bet for year-one contribution. A strong handcuff on what intends to be a run-first team, Brown is directly behind a player in Foster who is entering his age-28 campaign and coming off an injury-shortened season. I'd want Brown if I drafted Foster, and would view him as a standalone lottery-ticket stash in deep leagues.
Fourteenth Round
157. Tyler Eifert -- The 21st pick in last April's draft, Eifert managed a 39-445-2 rookie line, playing just 55.3% of Cincinnati's offensive snaps with 60 targets. Jermaine Gresham saw 79.9% and 68 targets. The pendulum may swing to Eifert under new OC Hue Jackson, a superior talent identifier and maximizer to outgoing Jay Gruden. There is some chance Eifert could become Andy Dalton's No. 2 pass-game option for the Bengals, behind A.J. Green. That said, I don't realistically expect a TE1 leap from Eifert until 2015, when Gresham's contract expires. I'll recommend buying Eifert in Dynasty leagues if he gets off to a slow 6-8 game start this season. His owners will be frustrated.
158. Markus Wheaton -- Wheaton is replacing Emmanuel Sanders, who ranked 27th among wide receivers in targets (112) and 28th in catches (67) last season. While sophomore Wheaton offers more vertical skill than his predecessor, the complementary wideout in OC Todd Haley's offense doesn't inspire a ton of intrigue. Antonio Brown will remain a target monster, and Heath Miller is healthier now. Wheaton could turn in a couple of blowup weeks, but consistency is highly unlikely.
159. Benny Cunningham -- A 2013 undrafted rookie from Middle Tennessee State, Cunningham quietly led the NFL in yards per carry (5.55) among rushers with at least 45 attempts. He is far more advanced in the pass game and OC Brian Schottenheimer's offense than rookie Tre Mason, and should enter camp as the No. 2 behind Zac Stacy. Cunningham's handcuff appeal is limited by Mason's presence, however. The Rams would likely turn to an RBBC if Stacy missed time.
160. Tre Mason -- Greg Cosell's top running back in the 2014 class, Mason is arguably the best long-term rushing prospect on St. Louis' roster. But Mason's game is littered with kinks that could prevent the third-round rookie from bypassing Benny Cunningham as the Rams' primary backup, let alone threatening Zac Stacy to start. Still only 20 years old, Mason was a poor pass blocker to be kind at Auburn, and managed 19 catches in 35 games. Mason got away with tentative dancing behind the line in Gus Malzahn's run-heavy spread, a tendency NFL coaches will surely want him to unlearn. I'm a big fan of Mason in Dynasty leagues, because most or all of his deficiencies are fixable. There's a realistic chance he'll spend most of his first year as a healthy game-day scratch.
161. Marquess Wilson -- Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, Matt Forte, and Martellus Bennett are obstacles in the way of a sophomore breakout for Wilson, who's replacing Earl Bennett as the Bears' No. 3 wideout. A high-upside prospect who measured 6-foot-3, 207 at minicamp weigh-ins, Wilson is not yet 22 and flashed big-time playmaking ability both at Washington State and during his rookie preseason. Initially, he'll play outside in offensive guru Marc Trestman's three-wide sets, running opposite Jeffery with Marshall in the slot. Wilson could become an every-week WR3 if Jeffery or Marshall missed time. He's an interesting flier in deep leagues and best-ball formats.
162. David Wilson -- One of the many casualties of outgoing OC Kevin Gilbride's "broken" 2013 Giants offense, Wilson lost two fumbles on Opening Day and struggled to find any hint of running room thereafter, managing 3.32 YPC behind a run-blocking unit Football Outsiders rated 30th in football. (Only Jacksonville and Baltimore were worse.) Now seeking medical clearance from a neck injury, Wilson remains a talented wild card with game-breaking ability but obvious on-field flaws and injury flags. He'll fill a change-of-pace and kickoff-return role if he gets cleared.
163. Jerricho Cotchery -- It's probably not crazy to think Cotchery could have a pretty nice, WR4-ish 2014, especially if Kelvin Benjamin progresses slowly. This is, after all, a receiver coming off a 10-touchdown campaign in Pittsburgh, and who suddenly has the biggest opportunity of his career as a serious candidate to lead Carolina in targets. Cotchery is 32 now and offers limited playmaking ability, but I wouldn't completely rule out the possibility he finishes with 75 catches.
164. Jermichael Finley -- Finley was quietly on pace for career highs in receptions (67), yards (800), and touchdowns (8) before last season's career-threatening neck injury, which now puts his NFL future in doubt. The 27-year-old could be an interesting addition to the Packers, Giants, or Falcons' offenses, but his market has been quiet. He did visit the Steelers and Patriots in June.
165. Ronnie Hillman -- Hillman may technically open the season as the Broncos' "No. 2" tailback, but C.J. Anderson is the preferred Montee Ball handcuff. Since drafting him, GM John Elway has been adamant that the club envisions Hillman as a change-of-pace back. Anderson, meanwhile, is built to shoulder heavy workloads at 5-foot-8, 225. I think Anderson would handle the majority of carries and goal-line work if Ball missed time or was benched. Hillman isn't worth a re-draft pick.
166. Shonn Greene -- Second-round pick Bishop Sankey should have little trouble beating out Greene, who will be 29 when the season starts and has undergone two right knee scopes in under one year. Greene is still the best pure inside runner on Tennessee's roster and a strong candidate for goal-line carries. If healthy, it isn't out of the question that Greene could play a bigger role than expected. He's worth consideration in deeper re-draft and TD-heavy leagues.
167. Kenny Stills -- I don't like Stills as a re-draft selection because he has virtually no chance at weekly consistency or confident start-ability. I do like him as a random blowup-week candidate in the old Devery Henderson role. While Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, and Brandin Cooks will hog targets, 22-year-old Stills will spend much of his time running clear-out routes down the sideline. He's a re-draft WR5. I like Stills better as a WR5 in best-ball leagues.
168. Jarvis Landry -- Dolphins 2013 slot guys Brandon Gibson and Rishard Matthews combined for 110 targets last season, tied for 30th most among wideouts if added together. Ryan Tannehill has shown a tendency to pepper inside-the-numbers receivers with footballs, also sending 102 passes in the direction of H-back Charles Clay. Landry must hold off Gibson and Matthews for playing time, but the former is coming off a torn patellar tendon, and the latter has been in and out of the coaching staff's doghouse. Landry could emerge as a sneaky PPR WR3 later this season.
Fifteenth Round
169. Davante Adams -- Second-round pick Adams profiles similarly to Hakeem Nicks, albeit with a more complete all-around game. He's drawn Keenan Allen and Michael Crabtree comparisons for his work in the short and intermediate sections. Packers GM Ted Thompson has an excellent track record when it comes to drafting wideouts, and only Jarrett Boykin stands in Adams' way of becoming Green Bay's No. 3 option in the passing game, behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. Adams' most likely breakout year is 2015, but he's someone to monitor closely in training camp.
170. Harry Douglas -- Douglas quietly set career highs in every statistical category last season, making a career-high 11 starts as Julio Jones and Roddy White combined to miss 14 games. While Tony Gonzalez's retirement frees up 120 targets -- working in Douglas' favor -- Jones and White are now healthy, pushing Douglas back into his natural No. 3 wideout role. Going on 30, Douglas has never scored more than two TDs in his six-year career, and has no chance of repeating last year's 132 targets. He's a low-ceiling WR4/5 only worth considering in PPR drafts.
171. Steve Smith -- Now 35, Smith managed a 64-745-4 stat line as a front-line receiving option in Carolina last season, demonstrating diminished burst and vertical ability. He's much more of a possession receiver now, something Smith himself acknowledged when comparing his role in new Ravens OC Gary Kubiak's offense to Kevin Walter. That humble expectation is admirable on the part of Smith, but not conducive to fantasy-caliber production. With Torrey Smith and Dennis Pitta entrenched as the top options on what projects as a run-first team, "89" is just a low-upside WR5.
172. Tavon Austin -- The popular narrative is that "vanilla" OC Brian Schottenheimer is to blame for Austin's disappointing rookie year. The reality is Austin was ineffective, committing five drops in St. Louis' first five games and failing to make any notable impact until the Rams scaled back his snaps. Austin did flash game-breaking ability in late-season spurts, but confirmed he's much more of a complementary role player than featured offensive piece. I like Austin as a late-round best ball pick because he should have a few high-scoring games. I think he will continue to struggle with weekly reliability and remain a limited-snap player on an increasingly run-first Rams team.
173. Coby Fleener -- Fleener's 52-608-4 receiving line as a 25-year-old NFL sophomore seems promising on paper, but a deeper look reveals a player whose role deserves to decrease. The tape exposes Fleener as soft and too often overpowered by smaller defensive backs he should theoretically dominate. Pro Football Focus charged Fleener with a 61.9% catch rate -- second worst in the NFL among tight ends with at least 65 targets -- and also graded him poorly as a run blocker. Dwayne Allen's healthy return means Indianapolis won't have to rely on Fleener nearly as often. I wouldn't be surprised if Fleener lost 20 targets and 10-12 catches off of last year's totals.
174. Delanie Walker -- Walker finished his first year in Tennessee as the overall fantasy TE12, although he ranked 17th in per-game scoring and was rarely a useful starter. Walker hit the 60-yard mark twice in 15 games. Now entering his age-30 campaign, Walker will play a lot of snaps in new coach Ken Whisenhunt's offense, but has never been a playmaker. Risk-taking tight end streamers might like him. I don't see Walker as worthy of a selection in standard re-draft leagues.
175. Charles Sims -- Sims is more of a threat to Doug Martin's value than a standalone asset. The Bucs have talked up their third-round pick as a passing-down and change-of-pace back, though Sims might share time with Mike James in the event of a Martin injury. I'm not confident Sims is a desirable handcuff or bench stash. Still, he's someone to watch in training camp. Martin struggled before last year's season-ending shoulder injury, and Tampa Bay's new front office used a top-70 selection on Sims. Sims' skill set is similar to Matt Forte, whom Lovie Smith coached in Chicago.
176. Eli Manning -- New Giants OC Ben McAdoo is implementing a quick-hitting passing attack designed to rejuvenate Eli a la Philip Rivers in San Diego last season. The biggest question mark is whether Manning possesses the short-to-intermediate accuracy required to excel in such a scheme. Eli's weapons are theoretically a strength, and the new offense should remove stress from New York's patchwork offensive line. Still, Manning's 2013 performance is hard to forget. He led the NFL in interceptions (27) and couldn't deliver in the most favorable of fantasy matchups.
177. Robert Woods -- A quick-footed possession receiver, Woods finished his rookie year with a respectable 40-587-3 line. He'll move into the Stevie Johnson role this season, but lose red-zone looks to Mike Williams and Tony Moeaki/Scott Chandler, while Sammy Watkins was drafted to become Buffalo's No. 1 wideout. Woods is a No. 2 or 3 passing-game option on the league's run-heaviest team with poor quarterback play. Woods' ceiling is probably a WR4 in PPR leagues.
178. Jace Amaro -- Amaro stands the best chance to become a re-draft asset in this year's rookie tight end class, ahead of 21-year-old Eric Ebron and Tampa Bay's Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Ideally, Amaro would emerge as Geno Smith's No. 2 pass option behind Eric Decker. Rookie tight ends rarely become fantasy TE1s, however, and Geno's year-two outlook is questionable. I still think Amaro leads all first-year tight ends in receptions. At 6-foot-5, 265, he could score 5-6 TDs.
179. Eric Ebron -- A wildly gifted athlete, Ebron booked a 4.6-flat forty at the Combine with a 10-foot broad jump at 250 pounds. New Lions OC Joe Lombardi, a former Saints assistant, has spoken openly of utilizing Ebron in a Jimmy Graham-like role. Ebron's long-term ceiling is drool-inducing, but he's a 21-year-old rookie at a position where first-year players near-unfailingly start slow. I think Ebron will have a few big weeks but struggle to put anything together on a week-by-week basis. Owners who draft Ebron as a TE2 figure to end up dropping him early in the year.
180. Robert Turbin -- The silly debate over whether Turbin or Christine Michael is Marshawn Lynch's handcuff was settled this offseason by Pete Carroll and John Schneider, who clearly prefer the latter. Still, Turbin's involvement would grow in Seattle's high-volume running game if overworked Lynch got hurt, possibly to the point of flex value. Turbin has better passing-game tools than Michael, and is a capable ball carrier in his own right. With so much focus on Michael, it wouldn't be nuts to target 24-year-old Turbin in Dynasty trades. The cost should be dirt cheap.
Sixteenth Round
181. Marlon Brown -- Brown registered a 49-524-7 stat line as a 22-year-old last season, also demonstrating an ability to play both outside and the slot. That sort of versatility and quick scheme understanding is rarely seen in rookie wideouts. Brown appears "blocked" after Baltimore signed Steve Smith, and new OC Gary Kubiak's historical lack of No. 3 receiver usage suggests Brown may struggle to get on the field barring injuries higher on the depth chart. It's a good time to target Brown in Dynasty trades. And I still wouldn't rule out a later-season impact in re-draft leagues.
182. Carson Palmer -- Both of his wideouts are going in the top-60 fantasy choices, suggesting Palmer could be a 2014 value pick who flirts with low-end QB1 numbers. I just can't get behind him as more than a dicey QB2, and believe it's more likely one of Arizona's receivers disappoints than Palmer breaks out. He's 34 years old, a below-average passer when not near-perfectly protected, and plays in the defensive-stingy NFC West. Palmer is a better two-QB-league pick.
183. Kenny Britt -- Britt has been a troubled, injury-plagued bust through five NFL seasons, but he's still young (26 in September) with size (6'3/218) and opportunity in a St. Louis receiver corps without an established No. 2 wideout, let alone a No. 1. Britt played his best NFL football early in his career under Jeff Fisher, and there's reason to think a change of scenery could do him some good. His current ADP is undrafted. Britt is a high-ceiling, no-risk WR5/6 flier in deeper leagues.
184. Cole Beasley – The Cowboys are talking up an expanded role for 25-year-old slot receiver Beasley, who efficiently secured 39 of his 54 targets (72.2%) last season. New Dallas playcaller Scott Linehan loves to pass, and Beasley is capable of excelling inside the numbers between Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams. Beasley should be on deep-league PPR radars.
185. Ryan Tannehill -- A consistent if limited-upside fantasy passer as a sophomore, Tannehill doubled his TDs (24) while markedly improving his completion rate (60.4) and yardage (3,913). The best news for Miami is overmatched OC Mike Sherman is gone, and Tannehill won't drop back often enough to duplicate his NFL-high 58 sacks taken. The Fins will field a more balanced attack under OC Bill Lazor, who comes from run-heavy Philadelphia. The bad news is Tannehill's attempts will take a hit, and he'll be forced to learn a new offense. One reason for optimism is Lazor's work with Nick Foles as the Eagles' 2013 quarterbacks coach. Tannehill is still a lower-end QB2.
186. Jared Cook -- Leave out Cook's 7-141-2 demolition of Arizona last Week 1, and he managed a 44-530-3 receiving line the rest of the way. Cook has his real-life uses -- speed to stretch the seam with mismatch potential at 6'5/246 -- but Cook lacks red-zone chops and physicality in contested scenarios. He’s shown every symptom of a career underachiever. He also plays in a run-committed offense with quarterback question marks. Cook's 2013 target totals look better with Sam Bradford under center than Kellen Clemens, but the Rams' 2014 offense will more closely resemble the system they ran with Clemens than the pass-happy spread they tried with Bradford early last year. Cook is what he is: A role player with little fantasy use.
187. Josh McCown -- I have McCown ranked low because of the uncertainty associated with first-time OC Jeff Tedford -- who's never coached in the NFL before -- and Lovie Smith's historically run-based offenses. Over the course of the season, I don't see McCown as a good bet to compile low-end QB1 or even higher-end QB2 stats. I do think he could have some big weeks against bad defenses. His pass-catching corps has dominant upside, and McCown is willing to throw to receivers who appear "covered." I see McCown as a sneaky best ball and two-QB-league pick.
188. Sam Bradford -- Bradford's 2013 small-sample numbers look swell on a stat sheet (32-TD, 3.856-yard pace) but keep in mind they were inflated by bad defenses and garbage time, and Bradford is now coming off a torn ACL. He was already an uncomfortable pocket passer, and quarterbacks often struggle with footwork following major knee operations. Whereas St. Louis opened last season in a wide-open spread, all of their offseason moves suggest the Rams now plan to become a defensive-minded, ball-control team. Bradford's fantasy outlook appears bleak.
189. Andre Holmes -- Holmes is 6-foot-4, 210 with 4.45-4.51 speed, and averaged 17.2 YPR on 25 receptions last season. His ascension should continue in 2014 after running with the first-team offense at Raiders OTAs. James Jones is 30 years old and best suited to a complementary role, while Rod Streater's talent is just above replacement level. Already passing Denarius Moore on the depth chart, there's an outside chance Holmes could emerge as the Raiders' No. 1 receiver.
190. Latavius Murray -- Darren McFadden's contract contains just $100,000 guaranteed, while Maurice Jones-Drew's includes $1.2 million. Neither is a long-term solution. 24-year-old Murray has a chance to be at 6-foot-3, 223 with sub-4.4 wheels and an explosive 10-foot-4 broad jump. After OTAs, OC Greg Olson opined that Murray has "the biggest upside" in his running back stable. Although Murray must clean up his pass protection and demonstrate durability after his rookie year was wiped out by injury, he is an enticing Dynasty hold and re-draft super sleeper.
191. Odell Beckham -- The 12th overall pick in May's draft, Beckham has a more attractive real-life than fantasy skill set at 5-foot-11, 198 without dominant red-zone traits. Rookie wide receivers generally struggle, and in New York "ODB" is competing for targets with Victor Cruz and Rueben Randle. My guess is Beckham will be new OC Ben McAdoo's No. 3 receiver, also returning punts. I'm not optimistic about Beckham making year-one fantasy noise. Long term, I am intrigued by his tools. He reminds of a cross between Greg Jennings and Antonio Brown on college tape.
192. Gavin Escobar -- The 47th pick in last year's draft, Escobar looked lost more often than not early in his rookie season, but earned the primary backup role behind Jason Witten down the stretch. Now under the tutelage of elite TEs coach Mike Pope, 23-year-old Escobar has potential to create mismatches in the passing game at 6-foot-6, 254 with long arms, great hands, and above-average athleticism. The Cowboys will sling the ball around the yard, and plan to employ frequent two-tight end sets. Escobar could be a legit TE1 if 32-year-old Witten misses time.
Seventeenth Round
193. Joe Flacco -- New OC Gary Kubiak is installing a ground-based attack designed to move the chains with the run and test vertically on occasion with designed shot plays. Kubiak's scheme is historically among the most quarterback-friendly in football, but Flacco's attempts could dip into the low teens or 20s among NFL signal callers, and his fantasy track record suggests mid to high-end QB2 numbers would represent a strong year. He's just a two-QB-league option at this point.
194. Travis Kelce -- Drafted 63rd overall in 2013, Kelce didn't play as a rookie after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee. He's expected to be a full-go for camp. Kelce reminded me of Heath Miller on college film, playing with a lot of physicality in both the run and pass games. The aggressive blocking will help his chances of staying on the field in Andy Reid's offense. I don't think Kelce is a good bet for TE1 stats, but he offers high-end TE2 upside at a position Alex Smith loves to target. Anthony Fasano and Sean McGrath are Kelce's underwhelming competition, and Kansas City has a hole at wideout behind Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs need someone to step forward and become Smith's No. 2 option. I'm a big believer in Kelce in Dynasty leagues.
195. Marqise Lee -- The Jaguars used two second-round picks at wide receiver this May. At No. 39 overall, Lee came before Allen Robinson and is a good bet to start immediately at "Z" receiver with Cecil Shorts returning at "X." In three-wide formations, I expect Lee and Shorts to see action at slot receiver, with Robinson entering to play outside. Lee's fantasy situation doesn't look great on paper with an increasing number of mouths to feed in a Chad Henne-quarterbacked offense, but I think he'll be a good bet to register some big games, and get better as the season goes on. With talent superior to Shorts, Lee isn't a terrible bet to lead Jacksonville in 2014 receptions.
196. Lorenzo Taliaferro -- A fourth-round rookie out of Coastal Carolina, Taliaferro is a hard-charging, 6-foot and 229-pound power back with adequate speed (4.58) and explosion (9-foot-10 broad jump). With an undrafted ADP, he's the zero-cost hedge on Bernard Pierce during Ray Rice's forthcoming suspension. I strongly prefer Pierce, but Taliaferro is certainly worth a look in deeper drafts and on Dynasty rosters. He was a plus blocker in college and is entering a pretty intriguing situation with an unsettled Ravens backfield under run-committed OC Gary Kubiak.
197. Malcom Floyd -- Cleared after last September's neck injury, Floyd enters his age-33 campaign as a far better bet for real-life than fantasy impact. His buildup speed-sideline game is not conducive to volume in coach Mike McCoy's quick-hitting passing attack, while Keenan Allen is entrenched firmly as Philip Rivers' go-to option. I think Floyd will hover in the 45-55 catch range and maintain a sturdy per-reception average, but probably never be a worthwhile fantasy start.
198. Jonathan Dwyer -- Cardinals coaches seem to prefer Stepfan Taylor, but Dwyer is a superior talent and pass protector, and something of a super-deep sleeper in re-draft leagues. Rashard Mendenhall's retirement leaves behind 235 touches, and I'm not buying Bruce Arians' pledge to commit to diminutive Andre Ellington as a feature back. Coming off a strong spring, 25-year-old Dwyer is a definite threat for goal-line work and could end up with more carries than many expect.
199. Ka'Deem Carey -- I liked Carey better than Bishop Sankey on college tape, but the odds are poor on 5-foot-9, 207-pound backs with 4.70 speed becoming NFL starters. That isn't the role GM Phil Emery drafted him for, of course. Fourth-rounder Carey is the favorite to serve as Matt Forte's primary backup, and will be worth handcuff consideration if he fends off Michael Ford in camp. A jack of all trades but master of none, 21-year-old Carey runs hard between the tackles and caught 77 passes in three seasons at Arizona. In a great offense, he could be an RB2 if Forte got hurt.
200. Ryan Broyles -- Broyles has torn both ACLs and his Achilles' since his senior season at Oklahoma, but beat writers continue to project him as Detroit's No. 3 receiver behind Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate. The odds of Broyles making a PPR impact are minimal, but he's still worth a late look. Broyles has sure hands, and the Lions will continue to air it out under rookie OC Joe Lombardi, a Sean Payton disciple. Broyles could push for 55 catches if he stays healthy.
Also Considered: Michael Vick, Stevie Johnson, Kendall Hunter, Nate Washington, James White, Dexter McCluster, Jacquizz Rodgers, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Mike Williams, Jeremy Kerley, Denarius Moore, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Levine Toilolo, Mychal Rivera, Brandon Bostick, Owen Daniels, Rod Streater, Stephen Hill, Stepfan Taylor, Richard Rodgers, Marcus Lattimore, Geno Smith, Mike James, Zach Miller, Luke Willson, Isaiah Crowell, Marcedes Lewis, Miles Austin, Donte Moncrief, Donald Brown, Scott Chandler, Tony Moeaki, Ryan Griffin, Allen Robinson.
