Dose: Derrick Rose Goes Down

The story of the night was obviously Derrick Rose and what is probably a season-ending injury, though most recent reports as of closing time last night indicated he would get a timetable after surgery.  For fantasy owners, he’s donezo in redraft leagues even if it’s probably prudent to wait for the final verdict to come in.

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The beneficiaries are going to be Aaron Brooks and Tony Snell, in addition to the core group of starters, but it’s going to take some serious hot-stepping for Snell to make ends meet in standard leagues.  He has shot 57 percent over his last 10 games and that’s going to drop like a rock any day now and the rest of his stat set is basically non-existent.  Brooks had a solid January and that’s probably going to be the case for the rest of the year, sitting on a late-round floor with some mid-round upside.

And yes, Kirk Hinrich is probably going to annoy everybody in the process.

As for the Bulls, no team is ever better when Derrick Rose is subtracted from it.  But he was pressing in a way that was both necessary and detracting at the same time.  He bears the brunt of being a former MVP on a massive deal and deserves the chance to figure out where his ceiling is.  At the same time, that ceiling isn’t where it used to be and the Bulls are better off spreading the ball around to his more-than-capable teammates.

So again, the Bulls aren’t better without Derrick Rose, but they might just play better and I’m nowhere near writing them off in the Eastern Conference.

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THE BIG NUMBERS

BUSTED

INJURIES

Tyson Chandler injured his hip flexor and so far this fits in the nagging injury category, which has been filling up as expected this season. A day off at some point wouldn’t be surprising.

Darren Collison (hip) has been ruled out for Wednesday’s game and he’s seeing a specialist. Anybody following the team knows how badly they want to keep their 2015 draft pick, which means they need it to stay in the top-10.  They just added Andre Miller and they really really want Ray McCallum to work out.

That’s your overlay for whatever happens with Collison’s evaluation.  If there’s any doubt about aggravating the injury they’re going to sit him.  And while we’re talking about theoretical what-ifs, should Collison sit for a while, we’ll be rushing to give Ray McCallum a look.  If McCallum can keep the bad shooting to a minimum (42.2/26.5/68.2) and pile up a whole lot of popcorn stats to offset his non-existent defensive stats – he could be a sneaky guy to own down the stretch.

Jarrett Jack (hamstring) will play limited minutes tonight against the Pelicans.  With Deron Williams getting some wind back in his sails after the break, Jack's owners should have expectations in check.  Likewise, owners should note Jack’s clear dominance in the position battle for a solid month or two, though the Nets are going to give Williams every opportunity to get on track.  In the end, I think there’s room for both guys to be productive as we see this storyline develop.

LaMarcus Aldridge should play tonight after missing the last game due to a right (shooting) thumb injury that nobody around the team thought was serious.  If anything it gives his other thumb a chance to pile on the rest after the All Star break, so owners should take that as a major silver lining to the missed game.

Bradley Beal (leg) only participated in individual drills and for his sake I hope they’re taking it slow with his return.  As mentioned a whole bunch, the Wizards let the kid play through a lot of pain early in his career and this could be a pivotal point for Beal in that regard.  There’s still no real fantasy beneficiary in the interim.

Tobias Harris (knee) reportedly felt good after Sunday’s lackluster performance and he’ll play tonight against the Heat.  If he pops off with a good game owners may want to get their sell-high deals going, as the Magic are tied with the Mavs having the least games remaining in the NBA.

For more injury news check out our injury page.

WELCOME BACK

Patrick Patterson wasn’t out long with his sore left knee, returning to action in a 12-point, seven-rebound effort including two threes and one block.  For a guy returning top 50-80 value (9/8 cat) on the season he’s getting absolutely zero respect in fantasy leagues.

Kendrick Perkins returned to action but in a Cavs uniform last night, scoring two points in two minutes.  I never thought OKC would part with Perk after they traded James Harden instead of amnestying him, all while playing the lumbering center at an obvious disadvantage through multiple playoff series spanning four years.  I mean, the Thunder loves them some Kendrick Perkins.

But they did get rid of him and so went the biggest move not just of this trade deadline, but perhaps an entire NBA generation when you consider the KD angle.

The Thunder don’t play tomorrow so they won’t make it into the The Breakdown, but long-time readers will probably soil themselves when I reveal I haven’t just opened the Thunder’s championship window, but they’re also dangerously close to being the team I pick to win it all this season.

It’s truly a strange day and I cover that in the podcast as well as how the Thunder could or should handle Kevin Durant’s foot injury.  He was seen on a walking scooter during shootaround yesterday and they could simply decide they’re all-in for a Warriors-Thunder first round matchup.  /drools

PICKUPS

Al-Farouq Aminu (nine points, 12 boards, one steal, two blocks) shouldn’t be available in competitive standard leagues but if he is go and grab him.  He’s not going to be spectacular by any means, but he has 15 games of top 50-70 value under his belt that says otherwise.

C.J. Miles profiles a whole lot like Aminu in the sense that owners don’t trust that the ride will continue.  He scored a team-high 21 points against the Thunder last night and he’s a solid mid-round value over the last 10 games.  He’s shooting a bit over his head and in his current 27 mpg role he’ll stabilize as a late-round value.  The shooting regression might make him look like a bad pickup in a week or two, but all things equal he could be useful at the end of your bench.  He’s certainly worth using right now while he’s hot. 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (21 points, five threes, two steals) is another guy who owners can’t possibly feel good about.  His season-long numbers show top 140-150 value despite a whopping 31 mpg.  He shoots just 40.3 percent from the field and 67.9 percent from the line with just 1.4 combined steals and blocks per game.  He’s red-hot right now though and a 12-game sample shows a top-100 player hitting 44.1 percent from the field and just 61.5 percent from the line.

Interestingly he has seen his minutes drop to 27.7 mpg over that span, but his situation has improved as he has successfully held off Jodie Meeks and gained a nice playmaker in Reggie Jackson to setup the drive-and-kick.  I’m not going to call him a must-add player but if this is him turning the corner, he could be a sneaky add like the two aforementioned guys at the end of your bench.

THE MIDDLE

Devin Harris has been a legitimate fantasy asset for the last 5-10 games and this all comes down to the Rajon Rondo situation, so let’s do this.  Rondo feels like he should quarterback the team, but he’s not getting it done right now and Rick Carlisle isn’t going to just hand him control like that.  So they’re clashing and the situation came to a head last night and the two chewed each other out and Rondo got benched again.

If you’re a Rondo owner or looking at Rondo on the wire this is actually a best-case scenario for you.  Rondo, Carlisle and the Mavs are all tied at the hip and this should push them through the awkward phase and into the ‘what do we do about it’ phase.  I don’t know if Rondo can have the peripherals to float anything above top-100 value in Dallas for 8-cat leagues, and in 9-cat leagues he is probably shot.  I don’t know if they’re going to play him more than 30 mpg because they view him as a defensive stopper with offensive quirks that can be useful, but they don’t need him on offense.  If anything, he gums it up.

That leads back to Harris and his top-115 value over the past 10 games and top-50 value over his last five games.  Conventional wisdom says that Rondo and Carlisle get on the same page and theoretically they’d want to play their big acquisition 32 mpg, pushing Harris into the untrustworthy bottom of the top-150.  But if they continue to use Harris in a solid 24-26 mpg role rather than the 20-22 mpg role he gets if Rondo is hitting on all cylinders, you’re looking at an eventual must-own player in standard formats.

Thomas Robinson is probably licking his chops going to Philadelphia, and at the same time they’re probably not interested in making this the Thomas Robinson show.  Yes, there is a scenario in which his physical gifts make him impossible for the Sixers to take off the floor, assuming they haven’t gotten to Brett Brown by kidnapping his children for ransom.

In the Sixers’ garbage-time environments, it’s easy to see a bunch of big double-doubles but that’s really where the dreaming can stop.  He doesn’t steal or block the ball very much, he turns it over, he can’t shoot and he really can’t shoot from the foul line.  The hope here on an add is that the scheme change unlocks just enough defensive stats to make his points and boards stack up as a low-end value in standard leagues.

DROPS

Rodney Stuckey (five points, four boards, five assists, 26 minutes) has been great over the last month, averaging 15.5 points on 53.3 percent field goal shooting and 93.8 percent free throws on 2.9 attempts per game.  Think plane ride home from Vegas, Monday after Spring Break, next day after bachelor party level hangover.  Barring an injury he should stay on the top 125-175, but factor in the injury risk and I’d be all over any low-to-mid level free agent.

Jodie Meeks (three points, 15 minutes) started off playing well after returning from his back injury but it wouldn’t be surprising to learn that it has been acting up – or not – and the bottom line is that he has been a bust so far in Detroit.  Now that the coaches have increased confidence in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, his already slim margin for error has become non-existent with the way he is playing.