NBA playoffs betting, odds: Our favorite bets ahead of the NBA playoffs
The NBA playoffs are upon us.
The postseason officially kicks off on Saturday after the final two play-in teams are decided Friday night. The Chicago Bulls visit the Miami Heat to decide the No. 8 seed in the East while the Oklahoma City Thunder plays at the Minnesota Timberwolves for the right to be the No. 8 seed in the West. The winner of Bulls-Heat will play the Bucks in the first round while the winner of Thunder-Wolves will take on the Nuggets in the first round.
Whoever wins the No. 8 seed in each conference will be a massive underdog and very unlikely to advance any further in the postseason. We sure wouldn't bet on an upset in either of those series.
But there are a few things we are looking to bet on ahead of the postseason. Here are our favorite bets ahead of the playoffs. All odds are from BetMGM.
Favorite first-round bet
Nick Bromberg: I have very little faith in the Atlanta Hawks to make it competitive against the Boston Celtics. And neither do oddsmakers. Boston is -1000 to win that series. That’s not a fun bet at all, so take a look at the series spread if you’re liking the Celtics as much as I am. Boston is -400 to win the series by two or more games and -165 to win the series by three or more games.
Frank Schwab: I understand why the Sacramento Kings are underdogs, but +210 odds? The Warriors have the pedigree and it’s totally possible they were sleepwalking through the regular season after winning the championship last season. But they still are a bad road team and Sacramento had a very good season. This is simply a numbers play: The line on the Kings is too high.
Most likely first-round upset
NB: I hate that I’m saying this, but I think the Lakers are going to knock off the Grizzlies. The absence of both Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke is going to play a huge role in this series given the Lakers’ ability to get to the rim and Los Angeles really does seem to have figured something out over the final few weeks of the season. I want to make it clear that I don’t think the Lakers are title contenders. But their odds to beset the Grizzlies have increased to +115 and that feels worth a shot.
FS: I’ll give a different answer than the Kings, and go with the Knicks +165. All reports on Julius Randle’s ankle injury are positive. If he’s back for Game 1, I think the Knicks have a great shot at the series win. Nothing against the Cavaliers, who had a very good season, but the Knicks were 17-6 after the Josh Hart trade before losing their final two meaningless games. It’s great value on a team that was peaking late.
Favorite first-round prop bet
NB: It’s not a first-round prop bet necessarily, but it’s worth considering an interesting first-time champions bet. Any first-time title winner is +210 at BetMGM and the group of teams looking for their first titles includes the Denver Nuggets, Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Clippers. Given that the Milwaukee Bucks are +275 to win the Finals and the Suns are +410, adding the Clippers and Nuggets to that bet seems worth it.
FS: I get why Kawhi Leonard is the favorite to score the most points over the Suns-Clippers series (+105 odds on Leonard). He’ll have to score more with Paul George likely out. But if you’re giving me +170 odds on Kevin Durant to be the top scorer in any series he plays in, I’ll take it. Durant averaged 29.1 this season, and while it was just 26 ppg with the Suns, that was across only eight games. Durant will have a big series.
Exact outcome Finals pick
NB: I’m going to back up that pick of either the Suns, Clippers or Nuggets as the champion with an exact outcome bet of the Suns over the Bucks at +900 in a rematch of the 2021 Finals. The odds consider that the most likely scenario among Suns victories and I like the Bucks to make the Finals after the Celtics would have to (likely) go through both the 76ers and the Bucks to make the Finals.
FS: I feel stronger about my West participant than who comes out of the East. The Nuggets were really good before they got bored late in the season and took on some bad losses. I’ll ignore how it ended, because they had the No. 1 seed virtually wrapped up in early March. This is a team that has home-court advantage through the Western Conference playoffs, was just about unbeatable at home (34-7, and three of the losses came during their late-season slump) and has arguably the best player in the NBA. I still believe in Denver. Out East? All I know is whoever survives the Bucks/Celtics/76ers battle royale will have earned its spot in the NBA Finals. I’ll go with the Nuggets over the Celtics as my exact outcome bet at +2800 (and take some Nuggets +1100 action as well).
Finals MVP
NB: I have to go with the best player from the team I’m picking to win it all, so I’ll take Kevin Durant at +650. I’m not sure I’ll be able to handle any potential dumb discussion about Durant winning another title on a team loaded with starpower because he’s going to be the reason the Suns win the title this season. This was a Phoenix team that was incapable of winning the Finals in 2023 without him. With him, they could be unstoppable.
FS: Often if you like a team to win a Super Bowl, taking the quarterback to win Super Bowl MVP gives better odds. In that spirit, Nikola Jokic is +1300 to win NBA Finals MVP. The Nuggets are +1000 to win the championship. That makes little sense to me. No team is more reliant on its star than the Nuggets, not even the Bucks. There is a scenario in which Jamal Murray plays like he did in the bubble in 2020 and blowtorches his way to Finals MVP, but it’s hard to believe the Nuggets win a championship and Jokic isn’t Finals MVP. That’s the best bet.
