NBA playoff predictions: Every series winner, Finals champion, who has the most at stake and what coaches are on the hot seat
The 2022-23 NBA playoffs begin Saturday with Games 1 of four first-round series. Before the games tip off, Yahoo Sports' NBA writers made their picks for every series, who will hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June, which player is primed for a breakout postseason performance, the players and teams with the most at stake and whose legacies are on the line, which coaches could be on the hot seat and what their dream NBA Finals matchups would be.
Western Conference first round
No. 1 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
Dan Devine: Nuggets
Jake Fischer: Nuggets
Vincent Goodwill: Nuggets
Ben Rohrbach: Nuggets
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers
Dan Devine: Grizzlies
Jake Fischer: Grizzlies
Vincent Goodwill: Lakers
Ben Rohrbach: Grizzlies
No. 3 Sacramento Kings vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors
Dan Devine: Warriors
Jake Fischer: Warriors
Vincent Goodwill: Warriors
Ben Rohrbach: Warriors
No. 4 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers
Dan Devine: Suns
Jake Fischer: Suns
Vincent Goodwill: Suns
Ben Rohrbach: Suns
Eastern Conference first round
No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 8 Miami Heat
Dan Devine: Bucks
Jake Fischer: Bucks
Vincent Goodwill: Bucks
Ben Rohrbach: Bucks
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 Atlanta Hawks
Dan Devine: Celtics
Jake Fischer: Celtics
Vincent Goodwill: Celtics
Ben Rohrbach: Celtics
No. 3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 6 Brooklyn Nets
Dan Devine: 76ers
Jake Fischer: 76ers
Vincent Goodwill: 76ers
Ben Rohrbach: 76ers
No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 New York Knicks
Dan Devine: Cavaliers
Jake Fischer: Knicks
Vincent Goodwill: Cavaliers
Ben Rohrbach: Cavaliers
Western Conference semifinals
Dan Devine: Nuggets vs. Suns — Suns
Grizzlies vs. Warriors — Warriors
Jake Fischer: Nuggets vs. Suns — Suns
Grizzlies vs. Warriors — Warriors
Vincent Goodwill: Nuggets vs. Suns — Suns
Warriors vs. Lakers — Warriors
Ben Rohrbach: Nuggets vs. Suns — Suns
Grizzlies vs. Warriors — Warriors
Eastern Conference semifinals
Dan Devine: Bucks vs. Cavaliers — Bucks
Celtics vs. 76ers — 76ers
Jake Fischer: Bucks vs. Knicks — Bucks
Celtics vs. 76ers — Celtics
Vincent Goodwill: Bucks vs. Cavaliers — Bucks
Celtics vs. 76ers — Celtics
Ben Rohrbach: Bucks vs. Cavaliers — Bucks
Celtics vs. 76ers — Celtics
Western Conference finals
Dan Devine: Suns vs. Warriors — Warriors
Jake Fischer: Suns vs. Warriors — Warriors
Vincent Goodwill: Suns vs. Warriors — Warriors
Ben Rohrbach: Suns vs. Warriors — Suns
Eastern Conference finals
Dan Devine: Bucks vs. 76ers — Bucks
Jake Fischer: Bucks vs. Celtics — Bucks
Vincent Goodwill: Bucks vs. Celtics — Bucks
Ben Rohrbach: Bucks vs. Celtics — Celtics
NBA Finals
Dan Devine: Bucks vs. Warriors
Jake Fischer: Bucks vs. Warriors
Vincent Goodwill: Bucks vs. Warriors
Ben Rohrbach: Celtics vs. Suns
Champion
Dan Devine: Bucks
Jake Fischer: Bucks
Vincent Goodwill: Bucks
Ben Rohrbach: Celtics
Finals MVP
Dan Devine: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Jake Fischer: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Vincent Goodwill: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Ben Rohrbach: Jayson Tatum
Which player will have the biggest breakout in the postseason?
Dan Devine
I’ve got pretty chalk-y picks, which means a lot of familiar faces and not too many “breakout” candidates to choose from … so let’s go with Darius Garland, who’s getting his first chance to showcase his wares in the playoffs. If the Knicks (and whoever the Cavs wind up facing if they make it past Round 1) throw the kitchen sink at Donovan Mitchell to try to slow him down, it’ll be up to Garland to take advantage by running second-side actions against bent coverages, breaking down perimeter defenders to get to his money midrange game or foray deep into the paint for layups or kickouts to open shooters. He’s an All-Star talent; I’m guessing he’s going to look pretty comfortable under the bright lights.
Jake Fischer
We've already written about the Knicks' dancing, Energizer Bunny Immanuel Quickley. If New York is able to advance to the second round, I’d have to think his defensive efforts against Garland and Mitchell will play a key factor. Quickley has dominated for New York on national television stages before. He is ready for this moment.
Vincent Goodwill
It’s easy to forget about Evan Mobley, especially in the context of the drama of the first round with Mitchell and the Knicks taking center stage. But this kid is special and on the cusp of being unstoppable, if he’s allowed to unleash his full talents. At some point, it’s gonna happen — and it could be sooner rather than later.
Ben Rohrbach
The playoff field is so stacked with stars that the list of breakout candidates is not a long one, unless you are guessing at the next random Grant Williams-type game. Anthony Edwards, Jaren Jackson Jr., Tyrese Maxey, Immanuel Quickley and Keegan Murray should earn some respect, but I’m going with Evan Mobley.
The 21-year-old Cavaliers forward is already performing at a Defensive Player of the Year level and has only begun to tap his offensive potential (averaging an 18-10-4 on 60% true shooting since the All-Star break). He has always been the one who could vault Cleveland from fringe contender to serious threat; if he raises his ceiling in real time against the Bucks in a second-round series, that leap could come sooner than later.
Which player or team has the most at stake in the postseason?
Dan Devine
Nikola Jokić: You’ve got two MVPs already in the trophy case, and maybe a third on the way. You’ve had the No. 1 seed in the conference sewn up for more than a month; every series you play will start at mile-high altitude and, if they go the distance, they’ll have to end there, too. Jamal Murray might not quite be 100% as he deals with lingering soreness in his surgically repaired knee, but he’s here, and so are Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon. This is the team that Denver believed could win the championship — no caveats, exceptions or excuses — with Jokić at its heart. Now all he has to do is get it there.
Los Angeles Clippers: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will combine to make $91.3 million next season; after that, they both have player options. If L.A. flames out against the Suns in Round 1, you have to wonder: When will Steve Ballmer start questioning why he’s writing $140 million luxury tax checks for teams that only ever kinda-sorta look like the picture on the box?
Jake Fischer
Golden State Warriors: I have plenty of confidence that the reigning champions have the firepower and veteran know-how to push their way back to the NBA Finals. But if the Warriors were to fall short of repeating, and if they were to fall short of even making the conference finals, this could really be the proverbial last dance in San Francisco. Bob Myers’ expiring contract still has no resolution. There has been plenty of talk about Steve Kerr's long-term NBA future as he assumes the role of Team USA head coach. Draymond Green is expected to decline his 2023-24 player option. We could easily wake up on opening night of the 2023-24 season and this championship nucleus is still intact for another push for a title, but there are only so many years left with this iteration of the Warriors.
Vincent Goodwill
Phoenix Suns: It’s always the Los Angeles Lakers to a degree, and the champs will have eyes on them. But the Suns made a win-now move in acquiring Kevin Durant, and Chris Paul is aging, making this their best, and possibly last, chance in a weakened West to win a title.
Ben Rohrbach
Philadelphia 76ers: Every year pundits talk themselves into the Sixers, and every year they disappoint. They win 50 games every season, boast Joel Embiid, who will almost certainly receive the most MVP love of anyone in the Eastern Conference for a third straight season, and they cannot find their way out of the second round.
The 2021 loss to the Atlanta Hawks was an abomination. Last year was no better. Another second-round exit at the hands of the Boston Celtics, who have eliminated them twice since 2018 in a total of nine games, could further fray the fabric of the franchise. Doc Rivers could be out as coach. James Harden can leave in free agency. Worst of all, Embiid could sour on the Sixers’ ability to construct a championship team around him.
Do any players have their legacies at stake in the postseason?
Dan Devine
Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid: Heavy is the head that wears the crown; if you’re an MVP, you’d better start making deep playoff runs sooner rather than later.
Jake Fischer
Chris Paul: He will go down as one of the greatest point guards in NBA history, but this could be the future Hall of Famer’s final chance at capturing that elusive championship that has evaded his entire career. We already heard Paul’s name mentioned in trade conversation for Kyrie Irving back at the February trade deadline. Just over half of his $30.8 million salary for 2023-24 is guaranteed before a fully non-guaranteed 2024-25. If Phoenix leadership was to leave these playoffs under the impression that Paul is not the floor general to best optimize the Suns’ championship odds with Devin Booker and Kevin Durant, there’s a clear pathway for Phoenix to do so.
Vincent Goodwill
Joel Embiid: Legacy questions are ridiculous. But Embiid doesn’t want to be in the same category as his Western Conference counterpart, Jokić, as a presumptive MVP without any real playoff bona fides. He’ll be looked at totally different in the present if he takes the 76ers on a run through both Boston and Milwaukee to even get to the Finals, let alone winning it all. His reputation will take a big boost.
Ben Rohrbach
Nikola Jokić: Another early exit would almost certainly preclude him from MVP consideration until he otherwise proves his playoff worthiness, even if his 2020 trip to the conference finals is often overlooked.
Joel Embiid: He will win the MVP, and that comes with additional scrutiny of his playoff record.
Kevin Durant: A championship in Phoenix would add weight to the two he won with Golden State, regardless of whether he chased all three rings. We are talking about another echelon of the pantheon here.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Speaking of the pantheon. Two titles at 28 years old would draw Antetokounmpo even with LeBron James at the same age. Kind of absurd to think about in Milwaukee.
Jayson Tatum: Quite simply, Tatum becomes an all-timer with a title and the Finals MVP — at age 25.
Which coaches are on the hot seat?
Dan Devine
Doc Rivers: I’m not sure Rivers should be on the hot seat; I’m just saying that if things go badly for the Sixers before the conference finals yet again, he’s probably going to be.
Jake Fischer
Tyronn Lue or Monty Williams: I do wonder what the implications will be for the loser of the Suns-Clippers first-round series. One of two teams with legitimate title aspirations — when healthy — stacked with multiple All-Stars, is going to exit the first round despite an exorbitant payroll and an emptied cupboard of draft capital. Could that ripple from the bench up to the front office? League personnel are certainly waiting to see what changes may come from the outcome of this matchup, which seems destined as one of the more competitive opening-round series barring the return of Paul George.
Vincent Goodwill
Doc Rivers: Fairly or not, Rivers is always looked at. And his personnel, while good, don’t measure up to Boston or Milwaukee on paper. But Michael Malone has a two-time MVP and two super scorers flanking Jokić. Their defense has long been a question mark, and in the playoffs, it becomes more of a premium. In theory, there’s no reason why the Nuggets shouldn’t get to the Finals. If they fall short, someone will come into focus.
Ben Rohrbach
Doc Rivers: You know why. Just do not go out on another blown 3-1 series lead.
What is your dream NBA Finals matchup?
Dan Devine
I think my actual pick — Bucks-Warriors — works pretty well here. The last two champions; two of the 15 players in NBA history to win multiple MVPs; the game’s premier battering ram vs. its most dangerous missile launcher; Jrue guarding Steph; Draymond guarding Giannis. It’s the stuff they write books about. (Or now, I guess, make documentaries about?)
I would also settle for Knicks-Kings. Let’s get weird.
Jake Fischer
First, I’ll say that my dream Eastern Conference finals matchup is Milwaukee vs. Philadelphia. We’ve seen the Bucks and Celtics clash. We’ve seen the Sixers and Celtics in various playoffs. I want a Giannis vs. Embiid matchup in the postseason before these guys exit their primes. For the Finals, my prediction of Bucks-Warriors would be an absolute blast. But the dream matchup, for me, in terms of zany fun … give me Nets-Suns. Durant squaring off against the Nets would be too juicy to turn away from.
Vincent Goodwill
There are so many. Lakers-Celtics, round 35. Clippers-Bucks or Bucks-Warriors. But Giannis going head up again, against the team he got his first title against and facing Mr. Durant again in a high-stakes Finals series? Bucks-Suns would be amazing. It’s cheating, but a revenge West finals for the ages series of Warriors-Suns would be pretty damn cool, too.
Ben Rohrbach
Lakers-Celtics: Old man LeBron with one more go at a title. The latest version of Boston standing in his way again — 15 years after his first of seven playoff meetings with the Celtics. All the pageantry of the rivalry as a backdrop. Winner is the first to 18 championships. What could possibly be better than that?
NBA playoffs first-round series previews
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Miami Heat
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Atlanta Hawks
(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) New York Knicks
(1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) Minnesota Timberwolves
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
(3) Sacramento Kings vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
(4) Phoenix Suns vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
Yahoo Sports' ballots for end-of-season awards
Vincent Goodwill's individual superlatives, starting with the MVP debate
Dan Devine picks the individual awards, including the new Clutch Player of the Year
Vincent Goodwill selects All-NBA, All-Rookie and All-Defense
Dan Devine's team awards from perennial All-Stars to rookies
