(4) Phoenix Suns vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers: 2023 NBA first-round playoff preview
The Western Conference’s fourth-seeded Phoenix Suns and fifth-seeded Los Angeles Clippers meet in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs. The Suns won their last playoff meeting in the 2021 conference finals.
More Yahoo Sports NBA first-round playoff previews:
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Miami Heat
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Atlanta Hawks
(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (6) Brooklyn Nets
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) New York Knicks
(1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) Minnesota Timberwolves
(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
(3) Sacramento Kings vs. (6) Golden State Warriors
How they got here
Phoenix Suns (45-37)
The year since the Suns blew a 2-0 series lead in a Western Conference semifinals loss to the Dallas Mavericks has been an interesting one, to say the least. As we learned in training camp that starting forward Jae Crowder would not play while he awaited a trade and begrudgingly max-salaried center Deandre Ayton had not spoken to coach Monty Williams since their dispute in the embarrassing Game 7 loss to Luka Dončić and company, the NBA suspended Suns owner Robert Sarver for the entire year.
Eight games into the season, Cameron Johnson, who usurped Crowder's spot in the starting lineup, tore his right meniscus. Three days later, 37-year-old future Hall of Fame point guard Chris Paul experienced soreness in his right heel, which sidelined him for a month. All-Star guard Devin Booker expedited his return from a groin injury to play on Christmas, when he made it worse and missed another six weeks. Not great.
Through it all, the Suns managed to hover above .500, clinging to a tie for the West's final guaranteed playoff berth at the end of January, when word came down that Sarver's sale of the franchise to Mat Ishbia would be finalized before the trade deadline. It was, and Ishbia's first order of business was a godfather offer for superstar Kevin Durant, whose patience in Brooklyn had worn thin following the Nets' trade of Kyrie Irving.
The Suns dealt All-Defensive wing Mikal Bridges, Johnson, Crowder and the rights to five first-round draft picks for the 34-year-old Durant, who was still recovering from another MCL sprain. The deal both stripped Phoenix's depth and sent its championship odds soaring, because Durant is that talented when healthy.
Except, Durant sprained his left ankle warming up three games into his return from his latest MCL sprain. That cost him another three weeks, which nearly ran the course of the regular season. In the end, he played just eight games with his new teammates in Phoenix — and won all eight of them. Durant, Booker, Paul and Ayton played a total of 159 minutes together, outscoring their opponents by 62. That is damn promising.
We really have no idea how good they will be. We trust they will be very good, so long as they are healthy, since the talent at the top of the roster is so impressive, but we also cannot trust them to remain healthy.
Los Angeles Clippers (44-38)
The Clippers got here in a very Clippers way. Sixteen months after tearing his right ACL, two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard came off the bench for the season opener, rested for their second game, returned for one more game as a reserve, missed the next 12 games on injury management, started three games, missed six more and played no more than five games consecutively for the remainder of the regular season.
Leonard's co-star, Paul George, played for a month, missed two weeks with soreness in his right hamstring and knee, played for two weeks, rested a sore left knee for a couple games, played a few more weeks, sat a handful of games to rest the right hamstring again, played for two months and sprained his right knee. He will miss the series.
Around the two stars, the Clippers entertained a point guard battle between Reggie Jackson and John Wall and abandoned both at the trade deadline. Out went Jackson, Wall and Luke Kennard. In came Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland and Mason Plumlee. In the final game of the regular season, an altercation between Hyland and Plumlee was overshadowed by another involving Minnesota Timberwolves star Rudy Gobert. It was all emblematic of how disheveled and irrelevant a so-called contender has been.
In the meantime, Clippers coach Tyronn Lue tried to figure out which of his many wings — Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Terance Mann, Nicolas Batum and Robert Covington among them — worked best with two stars who could not stay on the court and another (Westbrook) who switched L.A. teams in late February. Morris started 65 games and fell out of the rotation. Covington's most consistent playing time came in the final two weeks of the regular season. Powell missed two long stretches with groin and shoulder injuries.
The Clippers started 30 different lineups, practically one every other game, settling into the No. 5 seed and a first-round matchup they apparently did not want. I guess all you really need to know is this: They were 20-24 without either Leonard or George this season (-8.1 points per 100 possessions when neither were on the court), 24-14 with both of them (+8.3 points per 100 when they shared the floor), 8-10 with George and no Leonard (-1.4 per 100 in his minutes) and 9-5 with Leonard and no George (+1.8 per 100 in his minutes).
Head to head
The Suns and Clippers tied their regular season series, 2-2. If you are looking for context, there is none.
Two of the games were played before the Suns traded Bridges and Johnson in the draft picks-laden deal for Durant, who also played in neither of the games they played against the Clippers after the swap. The Clippers' starting point guards in the four meetings were (in order): Jackson, Wall, Mann and Westbrook. Leonard won his two starts — one with George at his side and the other when the Suns rested their stars.
Maybe the most consequential result was that regular season finale, when the Clippers played the rotation they expect to carry into the first round (sans George) and barely survived against Ish Wainright, Josh Okogie, Jock Landale, Landry Shamet and Saben Lee in a game they had to win to clinch a playoff berth.
Closing lineups
Phoenix Suns
We know (or think we know) Durant, Booker, Paul and Ayton will be in the closing lineup. That group has manhandled foes in a limited sample size. The Suns have experimented with the fifth spot, rotating through an uninspiring group of wings. Okogie has received the most run with them by a wide margin, and Phoenix has won those 128 minutes by 38 points. The Suns are also +15 in 22 minutes when Torrey Craig plays with that group, and he is the far more experienced playoff performer and more proven 3-point shooter.
Williams might just ride the hot hand or try his hand at everyone depending on his desperation. He might also bench Ayton again, weaponize Durant as a small-ball center and play multiple wings alongside him. That would require a pretty significant meltdown, which is never out of the realm of possibility in Phoenix.
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have far more questions about their closing lineup. Leonard is probably the only guarantee.
Starting center Ivica Zubac should be able to stay on the floor opposite Ayton, but Plumlee has gotten just as much burn in clutch situations since the trade. Powell is their second-best scoring option when George is on the shelf, and Mann sent the franchise to its first-ever conference finals appearance with a Game 7 performance for the ages in 2021. Westbrook, Gordon and Batum all have the experience. Little help that has been for Morris and Covington. Your guess is as good as Lue's when he is trying to find consistency.
The Clippers' most effective non-George lineup since the Westbrook acquisition has been the one-time MVP, Leonard, Gordon, Batum and Zubac, who have outscored opponents by 34 points in only 83 minutes.
Matchup to watch
Durant and Leonard's teams met six times in the playoffs in Leonard's first eight NBA seasons. They are respectively the most dangerous scoring and defending forwards of their generation (and arguably the most lethal ever at each). Leonard suffered a series-ending ankle injury in Game 1 of his Spurs' 2017 conference finals loss to Durant's Warriors, and he still was not healthy when Golden State ousted San Antonio a year later. Then, Durant tore his Achilles midway through the Warriors' 2019 Finals loss to Leonard's Raptors.
When they both actually finish a series, Durant holds a 2-1 advantage, although the first of his victories came in Leonard's lockout-shortened rookie season. Leonard's loaded Spurs beat Durant's Thunder in the 2014 conference finals, 4-2, and Durant's loaded Thunder repaid the favor in the 2016 conference semis.
(Let us also not forget Westbrook has twice ended Paul's season in the playoffs — in 2014 and 2020.)
Leonard's ability to limit Durant on one end and lead the offense on the other will go a long way toward determining whether the Clippers have any chance against the Suns. A monumental task for a player who has not carried so heavy a burden since he tore his ACL in the 2021 conference semifinals.
Therein lies the problem. The Suns got healthy at just the right time, and the Clippers never could.
BetMGM series odds
Los Angeles Clippers (+400)
Phoenix Suns (-600)
Series schedule (all times Eastern)
Game 1: L.A. Clippers at Phoenix on Sunday (8 p.m., TNT)
Game 2: L.A. Clippers at Phoenix on Tuesday (10 p.m., TNT)
Game 3: Phoenix at L.A. Clippers on Thursday, April 20 (10:30 p.m., NBA TV)
Game 4: Phoenix at L.A. Clippers on Saturday, April 22 (3:30 p.m., TNT)
*Game 5: L.A. Clippers at Phoenix on Tuesday, April 25 (TBD)
*Game 6: Phoenix at L.A. Clippers on Thursday, April 27 (TBD)
*Game 7: L.A. Clippers at Phoenix on Saturday, April 29 (TBD)
Prediction
Suns in six.
