NBA odds 2022: First-round playoff betting shows wide-open race even with Suns, Bucks as favorites
Betting who will be the next NBA champion is akin to taking a personality test.
The enigmatic bettor will flock to the Brooklyn Nets. But first, the Nets — boosted by the return of unpredictable guard Ben Simmons — must survive play-in action.
The defiant bettor may take a liking to the Philadelphia 76ers, whose key defender Matisse Thybulle decided to bypass a second COVID-19 vaccination and will now miss the team’s first-round games in Canada against the Toronto Raptors.
The trend-following bettor will align with the reunited core of the Golden State Warriors, counting on Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to win a fourth NBA title together.
And those playing it safe will latch onto the future-book favorites — regular-season champion Phoenix Suns (+270 to win their first NBA title) and defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks (+480).
“This feels like the most wide open the playoffs have been in a little while," Tipico Sportsbook spokesman Sunny Gupta said. “The East, especially, with five legitimate contenders over there and most of them hailing from bigger markets – Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Boston, Miami – makes us very excited for the playoffs.”
There’s something for everyone, beginning with the play-in games.
Tuesday:
Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 at Brooklyn Nets in the Eastern Conference
Clippers +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference
Wednesday:
Charlotte Hornets +4.5 at Atlanta Hawks in the East
San Antonio Spurs +5.5 at New Orleans Pelicans in the Western Conference
LET'S GET IT ON: Nets, Cavaliers to open play-in Tuesday
PLAY-IN PREDICTIONS: Our experts pick the winners of which teams advance
Here’s a complete betting breakdown for the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Eastern Conference
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. First play-in winner
Simmons nearing his debut for the Nets could coincide with Brooklyn sending their mercurial point guard Kyrie Irving into action against his former team, the Boston Celtics. If that's the case, the "buzz will be crazy" for this game, according to Gupta.
“That whole wrinkle of expecting Ben Simmons’ return comes even as the Nets were favorites without him," Gupta said. "If Simmons is coming in, having one of the NBA’s strongest defenders arriving looks to be super helpful, especially on the defensive end, where they’ve had some struggles. Offensively, we’ll see what he can do, but we know he can guard players one through five."
At +650, the Nets are Tipico’s third choice to win the NBA title. The Celtics are a +900 fifth choice. In the Eastern Conference, Brooklyn is +320 to reach the NBA Finals. Boston is the +425 third choice.
No. 1 Miami Heat vs. Second play-in winner
Should the Nets defeat Cleveland, Wednesday’s Hawks vs. Hornets winner meets the Cavaliers to reach this unenviable spot.
The top-seeded Heat — led by experienced players Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry — are 10/1 to win the NBA title and +480 to win the East.
“The Heat do provide great value, likely meeting the Hawks in the first round and then the scraps of the Sixers-Raptors grueling series," Gupta said. "So reaching the conference finals shouldn’t be too difficult. They have the chemistry, the veteran leadership and Erik Spoelstra is a top-five coach in the NBA.”
No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers vs. No. 5 Toronto Raptors
The 76ers are favored by 4.5 points in Saturday’s Game 1, and they’re -190 to win the series, but Gupta raises doubts around the team led by MVP front-runner Joel Embiid.
“Don’t be surprised if that series goes to six or seven games because (Toronto’s) Nick Nurse might be the best coach in the NBA and because Matisse Thybulle can’t play in the away games — crazy move there,” he said. “With the 76ers not being very deep, that’s going to hurt on away games.”
MORE: 76ers' Matisse Thybulle ineligible for playoff games in Toronto because of vaccine status
It’s also no secret Philadelphia’s James Harden has much to prove during the postseason.
“They’re in for a first-round grind, so I wouldn’t pick them to come out of the East (at 5/1 odds),” Gupta said.
No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Chicago Bulls
The defending champions are a solid choice for a repeat. They are -1205 to win this opening series.
“My personal pick is the Bucks,” Gupta said. “They get a lighter first-round schedule. They’re built for it. They did it last year. Giannis looks as good as ever.
"Everybody seems on the same page. The morale is a plus. And they’ve been hot of late. They look to be a strong option.”
Western Conference
No. 1 Phoenix Suns vs. Second Play-in winner
The Suns set a franchise record for regular-season victories. They are determined to redeem themselves after letting a 2-0 series lead over the Bucks slip away last year.
Phoenix meets whoever emerges from Wednesday’s game between the San Antonio-New Orleans winner and the Clippers-Timberwolves loser.
“The Suns are the obvious favorite after dominating the regular season and reaching the NBA Finals last year,” Gupta said.
And yet, on April 1, No. 2 seed Memphis defeated the Suns 122-114 without Ja Morant.
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. First play-in winner
Gupta is hearing the skepticism: The Grizzlies are here too early. You can’t bet on them to come out of the West. They’re too young. They haven’t done it before.
He replies, “But we literally just saw it last year with the Suns. A couple injuries break, and the Grizzlies can be right there. We saw (Dallas’) Luka Doncic get hurt with a calf strain. How long will that take? This is not as strong as a West as we’ve seen the last decade."
MORE: Ja Morant invites Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson to Memphis Grizzlies playoff game
With a deep squad that knows how to play without Morant, a victory isn't so far-fetched for the Grizzlies (+650) to win the West. And they are 13/1 to win the NBA title.
No. 3 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets
Denver has returning MVP Nikola Jokic (27.1 points, 13.8 rebounds, 7.9 assists per game), but how will the Nuggets cover the perimeter?
The Warriors have their own questions, considering the vulnerability they showed with health woes (going 2-9 from Feb. 9 through March 7 and 1-7 from March 16-30) before closing impressively with five consecutive victories.
Do they deserve to be +350 to win the West and +750 to regain the NBA title?
“If you’re talking about that core of Draymond, Klay and Steph, they haven’t played that many games together. The belief is that when they’re on the court together, they’re one of the best teams in the NBA," Gupta said. “We saw Steph at that high level at the beginning of the season, and they’ll be playing the Nuggets in the first round and that looks like a tough assignment for the Nuggets, who are not quite ready to confront that star power.”
Golden State is favored by 4.5 points in Saturday night’s Game 1.
The betting lines aren't as long as they were for Tiger Woods to win the 86th Masters, but sportsbooks need to hedge their risk because there are a lot of people wagering on the Warriors "simply because of those names and the fact they've won it so many times before," Gupta said.
No. 4 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
Before results come in on Luka Doncic's strained left calf injury from the regular-season finale, Tipico lists Utah as a 2.5-points Game 1 favorite.
“We don’t know. If he can’t be ready for the first couple games, that looks to be very tough on the Mavericks because he’s the heart of their team," Gupta said. “If he’s ready to go in Game 1, the Mavs have proven to be very resilient in the playoffs.”
Meanwhile, the Jazz haven’t made it past the second round in the past five seasons, with two first-round exits spliced in.
“The Jazz are a confusing team. Everyone knows there’s tension between (Rudy) Gobert and (Donovan) Mitchell. Their chemistry is not there, and if they can’t get past a hobbled Luka, they’ll trade one of them," Gupta said. "I’m certain of it.”
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA odds 2022: First-round playoff betting with Suns, Bucks favored
