NBA MVP odds tracker: Nikola Jokić building slight lead over Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
The NBA playoff race is heating up in both conferences with five weeks left in the regular season. Just six wins separate the No. 2 and No. 8 seeds in the Eastern Conference. In the Western Conference, the top-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves are nine games up on the No. 9 seed Los Angeles Lakers.
With more teams competing for playoff positions over the next month, teams will turn to their stars to keep them ahead or move up in the playoff race. A handful of those stars have already performed better than most this season and are in the thick of the MVP race.
Here's how the latest NBA MVP odds stand ahead of games on March 6 with odds from BetMGM:
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1. Nikola Jokić, C, Denver Nuggets (-155)
Jokić's entered March as the favorite after leading the odds through the end of February. The two-time MVP's stats this season fall in line with his award-winning seasons in 2020-21 and 2021-22. He's averaging 25.9 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 9.2 assists per game. In advanced metrics, the Nuggets star leads the NBA in box plus/minus (13.5), value over replacement player (8.1), and player efficiency rating (31.0) with defending MVP Joel Embiid sidelined with injury.
Denver's 117-107 overtime loss to Phoenix Tuesday snapped a six-game winning streak after the All-Star game. The Nuggets take on the NBA-leading Boston Celtics at home Thursday night in a matchup of the two NBA Finals favorites. A win there - likely powered by their MVP candidate Jokić - could be a huge confidence boost down the stretch and could bring the Nuggets into a tie at the top of the Western Conference standings.
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2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder (+225)
One of the other teams atop the Western Conference standings is the Oklahoma City Thunder, powered by MVP race newcomer Gilgeous-Alexander. His improvement this season's made him one of the top point guards in the league.
He's posting career highs in assists (6.5) and steals (2.2) per game in addition to sitting second in the league in scoring at 31.1 points per game. He leads in some advanced metrics ahead of Jokić, including win shares (12.8) and offensive win shares (9.3), and sits second behind the Denver star in player efficiency rating (30.7) and value over replacement player (6.3). The Thunder's rise to the top of the Western Conference is one of the stories of the season and Gilgeous-Alexander's a major factor in that.
Oklahoma City wraps up five road games in six matchups tonight at Portland. If the Thunder can rattle off more wins starting against the Trail Blazers, they could lock up the top seed and improve Gilgeous-Alexander's odds in the process.
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3. Luka Dončić, PG, Dallas Mavericks (+700)
Dončić's career year this season sees him lead the league in scoring at 34.6 points per game. He's averaging a career-high 9.8 assists per game (third in the NBA) and setting career-bests shooting totals from the field (49.6%), three-point range (37.8%), and free throw line (78.5%).
He's producing close to Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander's level but hasn't had the same team success this season. Dallas sits eighth in the Western Conference standings at time of publishing and have lost five of the last six games. The Mavericks host the Miami Heat tomorrow before a short road trip to play the Pistons on Saturday and the Bulls on Monday. If they can sweep all three games, they could move up the standings, likely thanks to their MVP candidate.
4. Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (+1400)
Another two-time MVP in this year's race, Antetokounmpo is four years removed from his last trophy. But despite the mid-season change in Milwaukee's head coach, the Bucks are rounding into playoff form behind their All-Star. Milwaukee's won six games in a row since the All-Star break and begin a four-game road trip tonight against the Golden State Warriors.
Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.8 points per game - second only to last year's average and more than both of his MVP seasons - along with 11.3 rebounds and a career-high 6.3 assists per game. He's also setting career-highs in field goal percentage (61.9%) and effective field goal percentage (63.3%).
He's right with the top three in most advanced metrics, sitting fourth in player efficiency rating (30.2) and value over replacement player (5.8), third in win shares (11.0), and fifth in box plus/minus (9.1). It'll take a lot to overtake the others but continuing to lead Milwaukee on a run could see his odds improve.
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5. Jayson Tatum, F, Boston Celtics (+2000)
Cleveland ended Boston's 11-game winning streak last night but Tatum's played extremely well over that stretch. He's shooting a career-best 47.6% from the field this season but can't quite match the counting stats of the other frontrunners at 27.1 points, 8.5 rebounds, and a career-high 4.8 assists per game.
Tatum's advanced stats are solid but not on the same level as the other frontrunners. He's eighth in value over replacement player (3.9) and win shares (8.5), 12th in box plus/minus (5.4), and 16th in player efficiency rating (22.5). But he is the best player on the best team in the NBA and that means he'll continue to be at least in the MVP conversation over the final month of the season.
Top NBA MVP candidates by major statistics
Next five NBA MVP candidates by odds
6. Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers (+20000)T-7. Kevin Durant, Phoenix Suns (+50000)T-7. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (+50000)T-7. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers (+50000)T-7. Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers (+50000)We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2024 NBA MVP race: Ranking the top 10 candidates by their odds
