NBA draft: Ranking teams by their luck in the lottery
With the NBA draft lottery set to take place on Tuesday night with teams hoping for the No. 1 pick in order to add generational prospect Victor Wembanyama, we thought it would be a fun time to look back on history to see how teams have fared historically with their luck in the lotto.
The lottery system operates based on a team’s record, assigning them specific odds to secure picks 1 through 14. Take the Orlando Magic as an example from this season. With their 34-48 record, they were the sixth-worst team in the league. Consequently, they received a 9.0 percent chance of obtaining the No. 1 pick and a 37.2 percent probability of acquiring a Top 4 pick. However, it’s most likely that they will remain in the sixth spot.
There’s also a slight chance they move down in the draft if other teams jump up past them unexpectedly, despite their odds.
Below, explore the historical performance of your favorite NBA teams in the draft lottery. You’ll see the number of times they’ve moved up, down, or remained in their original spot.
Craig Jones /Allsport
Times moving up: 4
Times staying in same spot: 1
Times moving down: 0
Average spots moved: 1.20 up per lottery pick
Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 3
Times staying in same spot: 4
Times moving down: 1
Average spots moved: 1.13 up per lottery pick
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 8
Times staying in same spot: 11
Times moving down: 1
Average spots moved: 0.95 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 4
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 4
Average spots moved: 0.73 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 2
Times staying in same spot: 5
Times moving down: 2
Average spots moved: 0.67 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 2
Average spots moved: 0.50 up per lottery pick
Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Times moving up: 3
Times staying in same spot: 11
Times moving down: 7
Average spots moved: 0.48 up per lottery pick
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 5
Times staying in same spot: 11
Times moving down: 6
Average spots moved: 0.41 up per lottery pick
Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 2
Times staying in same spot: 5
Times moving down: 2
Average spots moved: 0.33 up per lottery pick
Orlando Magic
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 3
Times staying in same spot: 12
Times moving down: 7
Average spots moved: 0.32 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 3
Average spots moved: 0.27 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 2
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 4
Average spots moved: 0.23 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 10
Times moving down: 4
Average spots moved: 0.20 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 6
Times staying in same spot: 12
Times moving down: 8
Average spots moved: 0.12 up per lottery pick
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 2
Average spots moved: 0.10 up per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 5
Times staying in same spot: 2
Times moving down: 8
Average spots moved: 0
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 2
Times staying in same spot: 10
Times moving down: 5
Average spots moved: 0
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 3
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 5
Average spots moved: 0
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 4
Times staying in same spot: 4
Times moving down: 5
Average spots moved: 0.08 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 2
Times staying in same spot: 4
Times moving down: 7
Average spots moved: 0.15 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 10
Times moving down: 6
Average spots moved: 0.18 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 3
Times staying in same spot: 12
Times moving down: 11
Average spots moved: 0.19 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 6
Times moving down: 6
Average spots moved: 0.23 down per lottery pick
Times moving up: 3
Times staying in same spot: 11
Times moving down: 8
Average spots moved: 0.36 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 2
Times staying in same spot: 6
Times moving down: 10
Average spots moved: 0.39 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 0
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 8
Average spots moved: 0.67 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 9
Times moving down: 12
Average spots moved: 0.73 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 1
Times staying in same spot: 7
Times moving down: 6
Average spots moved: 0.79 down per lottery pick
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Times moving up: 0
Times staying in same spot: 8
Times moving down: 6
Average spots moved: 0.86 down per lottery pick
Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images
Times moving up: 0
Times staying in same spot: 5
Times moving down: 4
Average spots moved: 1.00 down per lottery pick
