NBA DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Sunday, April 23
The opening round has been incredible. We've had great games almost every day, and we should be in line for some more on Sunday. We actually have four Game 4s, and only one could be an elimination. That means these series will swing after today's slate because the difference between a 3-1 series and a 2-2 one is massive. The best matchup has been the Warriors-Kings, so let's start there.
Guards
De'Aaron Fox, SAC at GSW ($35)
Some matchups couldn't be better. That's what we have for Fox because he's the fastest player in the NBA going up against the fastest-paced team. That's a recipe for fantasy success, especially since Golden State surrenders the second-most fantasy points to opposing PGs. It's been on full display in Fox's form as he's scored at least 47 Yahoo points in five of his six meetings with the Warriors. He's also notched at least 52 Y! in every game this series and needs a salary bump with so much in his favor.
Jamal Murray, DEN at MIN ($32)
It's sad that Murray wasn't able to play in the postseason last year because he's been special in these big games. In 35 career playoff outings, Murray is averaging 24.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. That equates to 40 Yahoo points per game when adding his defensive statistics, but he's been even better in this series. Jamal has at least 45 Yahoo points in the first three games of this series, en route to a 49-point average. That's no surprise since Minnesota allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing PGs in the regular season.
Caris LeVert, CLE at NYK ($17)
This is a risky recommendation, but we have to trust our eyes. LeVert has been one of the keys for the Cavs in this series having logged 35 and 40 minutes in the two most recent outings. He got a start in Game 3, and would be an elite option if he keeps receiving major playing time. In the 34 games that Caris has seen at least 32 minutes, he's averaging 29 Y! points. He also lists a 31-point average in 30 starts, and it'll be tough to keep him off the floor in such a critical game. Not to mention, New York allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing SFs this year - which is where LeVert will be starting.
Guard to Avoid
Jordan Poole, GSW vs. SAC ($19)
Poole has been amazing when filling in at times this year, but he's really struggled in a reserve role. We expect him to move back to the bench with Draymond Green returning to the starting lineup. That's scary because Poole produced 11 and 25 Yahoo points in the first two games of this series. That's what we saw during the regular season, with him only averaging 24 Y! over 41 games coming off the bench. The minutes and shot attempts plummet when this roster is fully healthy, making Poole impossible to trust.
Forwards
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN vs. DEN ($32)
It's so bizarre to see Towns at just $32. He earned it with some terrible play at the start of this series, but he's too good to be this undervalued. KAT averaged 39 Yahoo points during the regular season and dropped 39 in Game 3. That's all you need from a $32 player, and we have to believe Towns will be locked into 40 minutes and 20-plus shots in this elimination game. He also faces a terrific individual matchup against an undersized Aaron Gordon.
Michael Porter Jr, DEN at MIN ($22)
Porter has always been one of the most talented forwards in the league, and we're recently seeing glimpses of it. He's posted at least 26 Yahoo points in 11 of his last 15 games while generating a 31-point average. MPJ is also averaging 36 fantasy points in this series and is clearly due for a salary increase behind his elite production. The success is no surprise when considering the matchup, with Minnesota ranked 20th in total defense during the regular season.
Forward to Avoid
Keegan Murray, SAC at GSW ($12)
It's tough for rookies to perform in the postseason, and that's certainly been the case for Murray. He's only managed 33 combined Yahoo points through the first three games on 18 minutes a night. Murray's also shooting 23 percent from the field, and it's obvious he's overwhelmed in such big matchups. That might force him out of the starting lineup altogether, and a hostile environment like Chase Center won't help him look any better.
Centers
Nikola Jokic, DEN at MIN ($52)
Jokic endured a rough final month of the season, but that's because Denver had things locked up back in March. The two-time reigning MVP was averaging nearly 60 Yahoo points before that while providing triple-double averages on the year. That's what we've seen in the last two games of this series as Jokic has averaged 23.5 points, 10 rebounds and 10.5 assists. There's no safer option right now, especially the way he's mauled Minnesota with at least 48 Y! points in 11 of their last 12 meetings and an average of 57.
Draymond Green, GSW vs. SAC ($24)
You better believe Draymond is going to be feeling it in his first game back from suspension. The former All-Star has always been a better performer in the postseason since he's averaged nearly 40 Yahoo points across his career. That's the form we've seen over recent months with Green posting a 33-point average since Christmas Day. He should duplicate that stellar play against the Kings as they ranked 26th in points allowed and defensive efficiency in the regular season.
Center to Avoid
Clint Capela, ATL vs. BOS ($22)
Capela's current role isn't ideal as he hasn't played more than 26 minutes in this series, but was over 30 for most of the year. The limited playing time has led to some lackluster production, with no more than 30 Yahoo points over six of his last seven appearances. The poor stretch is no surprise when considering the matchup as Boston surrenders the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing centers. And through five meetings this season, Capela never cracked 25 Y!.
