NASCAR Playoff Bubble Watch: Bubba Wallace leads heading to Richmond

NBC Sports

Thu, Jul 27, 2023, 5:00 PM·7 min read

Five races remain in the Cup Series regular season. Time to highlight the drivers battling on the playoff bubble.

There are five drivers within 30 points of the playoff cutline and seven within 56 points. They are all vying for likely the two final spots in the 16-driver field, provided there is not a run of new winners.

The term “likely” is key. There are five spots remaining above the cutline after 11 drivers have won their way into the playoffs. Three are currently held by Kevin Harvick (+163), Brad Keselowski (+122) and Chris Buescher (+111). These drivers are less likely to falter in such a significant way that would open up more spots, so this realistically leaves the 15th and 16th positions.

The Bubble

15th: Bubba Wallace (+27)

Season stats: 21 starts, six top-10 finishes and four top fives. Five DNFs.

Best opportunity to win: Two main tracks stand out as the best options for Wallace – Michigan and Daytona. He finished second behind Harvick at Michigan in 2022 after winning his first career pole, and the Toyotas were strong with four drivers in the top 10 as the checkered flag waved. Wallace has never failed to finish a race at Michigan.

Daytona stands out due to Wallace’s history as a superspeedway racer. He has a win at Talladega and four top-10 finishes at Daytona. This includes three runner-ups (2018, '21, '22).

16th: Michael McDowell (+17)

Season stats: 21 starts, five top-10 finishes and one top five. One DNF.

Best opportunity to win: McDowell has multiple tracks where he could capitalize and win his way into the playoffs. Watkins Glen and Indianapolis are two examples. McDowell posted top-10 finishes at both tracks in 2022, and he has been consistently strong on road courses in the Gen 7 era.

McDowell also has past success at superspeedways. He won the 2021 Daytona 500, and he has eight top-10 finishes in 24 starts at the Florida track.

17th: AJ Allmendinger (-17)

Season stats: 21 starts, four top-10 finishes and one top five. Three DNFs.

Best opportunity to win: Allmendinger’s focus will be on the road course races. He won Kaulig Racing’s first Cup race at Indianapolis in 2021 and finished seventh there last season. He has one Cup win at Watkins Glen (2014) from his time with JTG Daugherty Racing, and he finished second behind Kyle Larson last season.

Daytona is an under-the-radar pick for Allmendinger. He finished sixth there in February, and he has seven career top-10 finishes in 20 career starts. Kaulig Racing's superspeedway history includes Kaz Grala finishing sixth at Talladega in 2021, Justin Haley posting two top-10 finishes at Atlanta (2022 and '23), and Allmendinger finishing third at Atlanta in July.

An interesting decision: Allmendinger will take a different approach to this weekend's Cup race. He will first fly to Road America for Saturday's Xfinity Series race while Kaulig Racing sim driver Derek Kraus practices and qualifies for the Cup race at Richmond. Allmendinger will then head to Richmond and start Sunday's race from the back of the field as he tries to point his way into the playoffs.

18th: Daniel Suarez (-23)

Season stats: 21 starts, six top-10 finishes and two top fives. Four DNFs.

Best opportunity to win: The road courses are the obvious choice for Suarez. His first career Cup win was at Sonoma Raceway last season, and he has three top-five finishes in five starts at Watkins Glen.

Richmond and Michigan could be options for Suarez. He has five combined top-10 finishes between the two tracks, but they were with Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing. Suarez finished 25th at Michigan last season for Trackhouse Racing after scoring nine points in stage 2.

19th: Ty Gibbs (-28)

Season stats: 21 starts, six top-10 finishes and one top five. Two DNFs.

Best opportunity to win: As a rookie, Gibbs is an unknown. He has limited Cup experience at the remaining tracks on the regular-season schedule, including only one start at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen. Both tracks could present winning opportunities given Gibbs' road course success in the Xfinity Series (three wins) and the potential for chaos at Indy.

Gibbs finished 10th at Michigan last season and ninth at Richmond in April as Toyota teams remained in contention for wins. Joe Gibbs Racing has also been very successful at Richmond with nine wins in the past 15 races.

20th: Alex Bowman (-46)

Season stats: 18 starts, six top-10 finishes and three top fives. One DNF. No top-10 finishes since returning from a back injury.

Best opportunity to win: Richmond is a prime opportunity for the No. 48 team. Bowman won in 2021 after taking the lead from Denny Hamlin on the final restart. He also started from the pole this season before finishing eighth. Bowman has four top-10 finishes in the past six races at Richmond.

21st: Chase Elliott (-56)

Season stats: 14 starts, eight top-10 finishes and five top fives. Two DNFs.

Best opportunity to win: Elliott has 18 career Cup wins, so there are multiple tracks where he could break through and secure his spot in the playoffs. Watkins Glen is an obvious choice with Elliott posting four straight top-five finishes (two wins). He was on the front row for the final restart last season, but Kyle Larson took the lead from him entering Turn 1.

Michigan is another track where Elliott could contend for the win. He has top-10 finishes in 10 of his 12 Cup starts. This includes three straight runner-ups in 2016-17. His worst finish at Michigan was 20th in 2019.

The Owners Bubble Watch

While Elliott is 21st in the driver standings, the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet is 14th in the owner standings. Bowman is 20th in the driver standings while the No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet is 17th in the owner standings. Michael McDowell is 16th in the driver standings while the No. 34 Front Row Motorsports Ford is 18th in the owner standings.

Why there is a difference: Bowman and Elliott missed out on driver points during the races they missed due to injuries. The two Hendrick Motorsports entries continued to score owner points as replacement drivers controlled them. Josh Berry contributed three top-10 finishes and one top five while driving both entries.

Why this matters: The driver's championship gets the most attention. It adds to legacies and bolsters Hall of Fame resumes. This championship is one that the fans remember while celebrating their favorite drivers.

The owner's championship is more important from a financial perspective. NASCAR uses the owner standings to determine the end-of-the-year payouts. This also correlates to the value of the charter. The better a car performs over a span of three years, the more valuable it is.

14th: No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports (+75)

Drivers: Chase Elliott (14 starts), Josh Berry (five starts), Jordan Taylor (one start) and Corey LaJoie (one start)

Season stats: 21 starts, 10 top-10 finishes and six top fives. Two DNFs.

15th: No. 47 JTG-Daugherty Racing (+39)

Driver: Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Season stats: 21 starts, seven top-10 finishes, two top fives and one win. One DNF.

16th: No. 23 23XI Racing (+10)

Driver: Bubba Wallace

Season stats: 21 starts, six top-10 finishes and four top fives. Five DNFs.

17th: No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports (-10)

Drivers: Alex Bowman (14 starts) and Josh Berry (three starts)

Season stats: 21 starts, seven top-10 finishes and three top fives. One DNF.

18th: No. 34 Front Row Motorsports (-10)

Driver: Michael McDowell