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NASCAR odds at Charlotte: Kyle Larson favored, Bubba Wallace rolling; let's prop up a win

ken willis, the daytona beach news-journal
·5 min read
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Someone, quick, call the Boys in Scripting.

Anyone have any idea how we can draw up a Ty Dillon win Sunday night at Charlotte? If you do, and if you have a spare hundred bucks to toss across the counter, you’re gonna pay off the F-150, buy mama a diamond, and still have enough left over for that Carolina Skiff.

And live bait!

For a $100 wager, Ty is tempting you with a payoff of $150,000. Nope, 150 grand ain’t what it used to be, but I bet it’ll pay off that credit card might even buy enough gas to get you, the F-150 and the new bass boat two counties away for a day on the lake.

Who’s with me?

Oh, come on.

No?

Just as I feared. A pair of 15-car pileups and some good fortune with pit sequences, Ty has a shot. But I reckon we have to play the odds and stick with what got us here: With here being a serious hole.

You may or may not recall a few weeks ago when the plan was to keep plunging ahead, only more so, in an effort to eventually hit a winner, with $90 of our weekly $100 allotment on the line, and not only erase all previous debts, but build a cushion heading into summer.

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Don't surprised to see Kyle Larson strike this pose (again) Sunday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
Don't surprised to see Kyle Larson strike this pose (again) Sunday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Not the worst idea. Holds water, wouldn’t you say?

Well, scrap all that.

You don’t have to tell me to quit beating my head against the SAFER Barrier.

That’s right, time for some prop bets, courtesy of DraftKings. Here’s the deal, going forward, ’til death do us part, or until it’s decided we should change the rules again: $50 on a clear winner each week, $50 on a prop bet, and that prop bet could be a top-10 or top-5 finish, or $50 on a driver-versus-driver matchup.

Odds to win among favorites

Here are the odds on the favorites, as well as a few longer-shots that raise an eyebrow …

Kyle Larson +650, William Byron +700, Chase Elliott +800, Kyle Busch +800, Denny Hamlin +800, Joey Logano +1,000, Christopher Bell +1,000

Barring an issue or three, we all know Larson will win. But here’s the deal — this is 400 laps and 600 miles, so the possibility of issues is greatly enhanced.

Martin Truex +1,200, Ross Chastain +1,400, Ryan Blaney +1,400, Tyler Reddick +1,600, Kevin Harvick +1,600

You can see Truex winning this thing, can’t you? Put all $50 on him, and it gets you half of that +1,200 (that’s $600 for you English majors).

Some longshots worth eyeballing

Bubba Wallace has been on a bit of a roll this month.
Bubba Wallace has been on a bit of a roll this month.

Instead of going down the whole list, let’s go with those who you’d consider wagering upon, not those you’d only buy into at gunpoint.

Brad Keselowski +4,000, Ty Gibbs +5,000, Daniel Suarez +6,600, Bubba Wallace +6,600, Austin Dillon +30,000, Ty Dillon +150,000

Yep, kinda-sorta kidding on Ty Dillon. But if I used C-notes for hankies, I’d definitely try to turn my snot-rag into 150k each and every time a guy carried those odds into a stock-car race and wasn’t driving a ’68 Rambler.

Some potential prop-bets

Along with odds to win, some of your favorite betting apps give odds on top-5 and top-10 finishes. Kevin Harvick, for instance, is +225 for a top-10 finish, meaning you’d win $225 if you plunked down $100 on the wager.

Not a great payoff for a $100 wager, is it? Well, that’s all you can expect for a top-10, you know? The folks who lay down these odds aren’t fools. They know just where to set that thermostat to get you antsy.

Me, I’m more into the driver-versus-driver scenarios. This week, at least. And I see one I really like.

DraftKings has a prop on Christopher Bell versus Ross Chastain, and frankly, I like almost anybody against Ross this week because 400 laps is a long way to go with a target on your bumper.

DraftKings likes Ross in this matchup. He’s -125 while Bell is -105. So a bet on Bell, at $50, would net you a tad under $50. So, 50 to take in about 95 ain’t the worst thing in the world. Let’s ponder.

Last week

I had a good feeling that Brad Keselowski’s first  win as a co-owner could come at an exhibition like the All Star Race. That good feeling went where all the others have retired. Yep, debtors prison.

This week

Anyone else noticed the Bubba Wallace roll of late? Well, I’m glad no one told the odds makers. Give me all of Bubba I can get this week at +6,600. For our purposes, all I can get is $50, but that’d be worth $3,300 if Bubba sprays champagne late Sunday evening.

For the new prop bet, let’s take Christopher Bell at -105 to beat Ross the Boss, which would bring a tad under a $50 profit for our $50 wager.

New week, new rules, new bets. New results? We’ll see.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR Odds, Charlotte: Kyle Larson favored, but Bubba Wallace rolling