NASCAR Cup playoff bubble watch entering Watkins Glen

Two races remain in the Cup Series regular season. Three spots are open above the playoff cutline after Michael McDowell won at Indianapolis.

McDowell entered Indianapolis three points below the cutline. He jumped into a playoff spot with a dominant win. This dropped Bubba Wallace from 15th into the final playoff spot as he lost a large portion of his points cushion.

There are three open spots in the playoff picture, but that could change after Watkins Glen. Kevin Harvick (+145) and Brad Keselowski (+143) can both lock themselves into the playoffs if there is not a new winner. They each have to be at least 56 points ahead of the driver in 16th to secure a playoff spot.

If one of the drivers listed below wins at Watkins Glen, Harvick and Keselowski would enter the regular-season finale in a tenuous position. One of these former champions could miss the playoffs if another driver below the cutline wins.

This is something that happened last season as Austin Dillon eliminated Martin Truex Jr. with his win at Daytona. Ryan Blaney moved on by virtue of points.

The Bubble:

16th: Bubba Wallace (+28)

Season stats: 24 starts with six top-10 finishes and four top fives. Five DNFs. Finished 18th at Indianapolis.

Best opportunity to win: Wallace has made positive strides at NASCAR’s road courses, but his best opportunity to win remains at Daytona.

Wallace has four top-10 finishes and four top fives in 12 career starts at Daytona. Three of these finishes were runner-up results. It is possible that he enters the regular-season finale in a must-win situation if any of the drivers below him win at Watkins Glen. He would no longer be able to point his way in.

17th: Daniel Suarez (-28)

Season stats: 24 starts with eight top-10 finishes and three top fives. Four DNFs. Finished third at Indianapolis after scoring 17 points in the first two stages.

Best opportunity to win: Suarez lost 28 points at Indianapolis due to McDowell winning from below the cutline. They were separated by only five points before Sunday's race. The next driver ahead of Suarez is Wallace, who previously had a 58-point advantage over the cutline.

Suarez showed that he could contend for the win at Indianapolis early and then he finished third after an issue on pit road. Now he heads to Watkins Glen, a track where he finished fifth last season.

18th: Ty Gibbs (-49)

Season stats: 24 starts with six top-10 finishes and one top five. Two DNFs. Finished 12th at Indianapolis after missing out on stage points.

Best opportunity to win: Gibbs has a strong enough car that he could win in either of the two remaining races, but a road course will present an opportunity. He won at Watkins Glen in the Xfinity Series, and he recovered from a spin at Indianapolis on Sunday to finish just outside of the top 10.

19th: Chase Elliott (-80)

Season stats: 17 starts, nine top-10 finishes and six top fives. Three DNFs. Finished second at Indianapolis.

Best opportunity to win: Elliott’s last road course win was Road America in 2021. He has not reached Victory Lane at a road course in the Next Gen era, but he put himself in contention at Indianapolis.

Watkins Glen remains Elliott’s best opportunity to punch his ticket to the playoffs. He went back-to-back at the road course in 2018 and 2019, and he finished fourth last season.

20th: Alex Bowman (-80)

Season stats: 21 starts, seven top-10 finishes and four top fives. Two DNFs. Finished fifth at Indianapolis after scoring six points in the first two stages.

Best opportunity to win: Bowman does not have a win at any of the remaining tracks on the regular-season schedule, but he has performed consistently at NASCAR’s road courses. His fifth-place finish at Indianapolis was the latest example. Watkins Glen presents an opportunity to challenge for the win.

21st: AJ Allmendinger (-87)

Season stats: 24 starts with four top-10 finishes and one top five. Three DNFs. Finished 26th at Indianapolis after getting spun by Ryan Blaney and falling a lap behind the leaders.

Best opportunity to win: Allmendinger finished 26th in the past two Cup races while falling further below the cutline. If he makes the playoffs, it will potentially be at Watkins Glen. He has one Cup win at the New York road course (2014), and he finished second behind Kyle Larson last season.