NASCAR betting, odds: Ford heads to Atlanta looking for its third win of 2023

There’s no clear favorite for Sunday’s Cup Series race at Atlanta (7 p.m. ET, USA).

Sunday night’s race is the fourth at the reconfigured 1.54-mile oval. Track owner Speedway Motorsports raised the banking at the track and repaved the surface to make it more conducive to the type of racing seen at Daytona and Talladega than what had previously happened in Georgia. The old Atlanta track was a driver favorite because of its wide corners and worn-out asphalt.

The first two races on the current configuration were crashfests. The two races a season ago produced a combined 24 cautions — the same number of combined caution flags over the last five Atlanta races on the old configuration.

However, the 2023 spring race had just five cautions as it appeared drivers had figured out they needed to be a little more patient. Joey Logano led 140 of the race’s 260 laps on the way to his first and only win of the season so far.

That victory was the first of just two wins for Ford drivers through the first 18 races of the season. Ford is clearly at a disadvantage to Chevrolet (11 wins) and Toyota (five). Kevin Harvick in seventh is the highest Ford driver in the points standings.

The parity Atlanta is designed to produce could favor a Ford driver this weekend. Ryan Blaney — the only other Ford driver with a win this season — is the favorite at +1200 at BetMGM and has the same odds as his former Team Penske teammate Brad Keselowski. Keselowski was second to Logano at Atlanta this spring. With Blaney, Logano and Keselowski, Ford has three of the best drivers when it comes to drafting-style races.

Here’s what you need to know to bet Sunday’s race.

The favorites

• Ryan Blaney (+1200)

• Brad Keselowski (+1200)

• Chase Elliott (+1300)

• Kyle Busch (+1300)

• Denny Hamlin (+1300)

• Joey Logano (+1300)

All of the drivers at either +1200 or +1300 have recently won a race at either Daytona, Talladega or the new Atlanta. Elliott is the defending champion of the summer Atlanta race and needs to get a win to secure his spot in the playoffs after missing races because of a broken leg and a suspension for crashing Hamlin in Charlotte.

Good mid-tier value

• Bubba Wallace (+2500)

• Alex Bowman (+3000)

Wallace has been very competitive at Daytona, Atlanta and Talladega this season, and bad luck has resulted in terrible finishes. Sunday night could be a spot where he finally gets a result to match the speed he’s shown. Bowman’s teammates, Elliott and William Byron, each have wins at Atlanta, and he should have a competitive car.

Don’t bet this driver

• Corey LaJoie (+3000)

The reconfigured Atlanta is LaJoie’s best track by far. He has finishes of fifth and fourth in three races and they’re the only two top fives of his career. But a top five feels like the ceiling for LaJoie. It won’t be a shock to see him have another good run Sunday. He’s just likely not going to win.

Looking for a long shot?

• Michael McDowell (+4000)

The 2021 Daytona 500 champion is 18th in the points standings and has four top-10 finishes. None of them has come at Daytona, Atlanta or Talladega, which means that his team has shown some legitimate speed.