NASCAR betting, odds: Chase Elliott is the favorite ahead of the Chicago street race

Betting the NASCAR Cup Series race at the Chicago street course could be incredibly difficult.

Sunday’s race (5:30 p.m. ET, NBC) is the first top-level NASCAR race on a street circuit. The circuit is new and drivers will just have a 50-minute practice session ahead of qualifying for the race. Sure, teams and drivers have been preparing for the race via simulations, but there’s no substitute for real track time.

The 2.2-mile track in Chicago’s Grant Park has 12 turns and seven of them are approximately 90-degree corners. At a glance, it’s hard to see where the best passing opportunities will be. There aren’t any exceptionally long straightaways leading into heavy braking zones. Our best guess is that drivers will make most of their moves entering Turn 1 and entering Turn 6.

And since this is a street course, there won’t be any room for drivers to run wide if they miss a corner. It could be a race that features a lot of cautions and it wouldn’t be surprising if the track becomes totally blocked behind crashes.

If you’re familiar at all with NASCAR betting, you know that people like to bet on Chase Elliott. Combine that with Elliott’s prowess on road courses and it’s clear why he enters the race as the BetMGM favorite at +500.

With so many unknowns entering Sunday’s race, BetMGM has played it pretty straight. Eight drivers have odds at +1200 or better. Eight other drivers have odds between +2000 and +3000 and then the rest of the field is at +4000 or longer.

Here’s what you need to know if you’re willing to make a bet on the race.

The favorites

• Chase Elliott (+500)

• Tyler Reddick (+650)

• Martin Truex Jr. (+700)

• Kyle Larson (+800)

• AJ Allmendinger (+800)

Each of these five drivers has won at a road course since the start of the 2021 season. Reddick won at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season after two road course wins in 2022, and Truex won at Sonoma in June. Larson won at Watkins Glen a year ago and Allmendinger won the Indianapolis Grand Prix in 2021.

Good mid-tier value

• Christopher Bell (+2500)

• Denny Hamlin (+3000)

Bell won at the Daytona road course in 2021 and on the Charlotte Royal in 2022 while Hamlin started from the pole at Sonoma and ran well until a late-race crash. His prowess on short tracks could be a benefit.

Don’t bet this driver

• Daniel Suarez (+2500)

Suarez has just one top-five and five top-10 finishes this season. In our eyes, his odds are juiced because of his win at Sonoma a season ago. He’s not worth a flier at the price.

Looking for a long shot?

• Chase Briscoe (+5000)

It’s been a miserable season for Briscoe after making the playoffs a year ago. But four of his 17 career top-10s have come on road courses and he’s also finished in the top 10 at Martinsville on three occasions. We’re applying the same logic we did with Hamlin above here. Briscoe’s probably not going to win. But this could be a race that’s good for his confidence.