Monday Measure: How will the SEC shake out this season? Here's how the teams rank after Week 5
Even in a down year, the SEC is one of the deepest conferences in college football. But it doesn’t have many playoff contenders.
Georgia remained at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 after its 22nd consecutive win on Saturday, a close come-from-behind victory over Auburn. The Bulldogs are 2-0 in the SEC but their victories over South Carolina and Auburn came by a combined 17 points. Just two of the Bulldogs’ nine SEC victories a season ago were by 10 or fewer points.
Despite the Bulldogs’ sluggishness to start their wins over South Carolina and Auburn, they still look to be the best team in the conference by a decent margin. TE Brock Bowers is the best offensive player in college football who isn’t a quarterback and the defense is still absolutely loaded.
It’s apparent that Alabama is the No. 2 team in the SEC even though the Crimson Tide have questions of their own. Alabama easily dispatched Mississippi State on Saturday, but the passing game is still a concern. Especially against good opponents.
After that, it’s hard to decipher just what the hierarchy is as we enter October. Here’s our best guess through the first five weeks of the season.
1. Georgia (5-0)
Week 6 is a prime opportunity for Georgia to assert its dominance as undefeated Kentucky visits Athens. QB Carson Beck wasn’t great in the first road start of his career against Auburn, but he didn’t make any terrible mistakes either. Sometimes that’s good enough.
2. Alabama (4-1)
The Crimson Tide threw 13 passes and ran the ball 43 times in a 40-14 win over Mississippi State. A road game at Texas A&M in Week 6 looms large ahead of three consecutive home games. If Alabama loses to the Aggies, the SEC West could become real chaotic.
3. Ole Miss (4-1)
The Rebels bounced back nicely from a loss to Alabama in Week 4 with a wild 55-49 win over LSU. Ole Miss had over 700 yards of offense as Jaxson Dart had his best game in an Ole Miss uniform. If Dart keeps playing like he did against the Tigers, Ole Miss is a serious New Year’s Six bowl game contender.
4. Kentucky (5-0)
The Wildcats ran over, around and through Florida on Saturday as Ray Davis rushed for 280 yards and three scores. We’re not sure how well Kentucky matches up with Georgia, though the Wildcats have shown they’re capable of making it ugly against the Bulldogs. Georgia won 16-6 a year ago and beat Kentucky 14-3 in 2019.
5. Missouri (5-0)
QB Brady Cook has thrown an SEC-record 395 passes without an interception. If you believe in jinxes, he’ll throw three picks against LSU in Week 6. Wins over LSU and Kentucky over the next two weeks would make the Tigers the surprise team of 2023 in all of college football and establish Mizzou as the No. 2 team in the East.
6. Tennessee (4-1)
The Volunteers made easy work of South Carolina on Saturday in a 41-20 win, though the loss of WR Bru McCoy for the rest of the season is a big blow. McCoy suffered an ugly right ankle injury against the Gamecocks. Joe Milton has thrown for 1,164 yards so far and is completing 63% of his passes but he’s averaging just seven yards an attempt.
7. Texas A&M (4-1)
Max Johnson entered the 2023 season as one of the best backup quarterbacks in college football and is now the starter after Conner Weigman’s injury. Johnson threw for two TDs and rushed for 57 yards in A&M’s win over Arkansas on Saturday and his performance is the key to A&M’s chances of winning the SEC West. Alabama visits Kyle Field next.
8. LSU (3-2)
Now that the Tigers are likely out of the College Football Playoff picture, will the team fight for a 10-win season and another SEC West title or could things really go sideways? It’s a fair question to ask of a team that entered the season with such lofty expectations. The offense with QB Jayden Daniels and WRs Brian Thomas and Malik Nabers has not been the issue. The problem has been a secondary that was routinely torched in September.
9. Florida (3-2)
The Gators’ two losses are to ranked opponents in Kentucky and Utah. But those were ugly losses and overshadow Florida’s win over Tennessee. QB Graham Mertz has been much better than he was at Wisconsin, but something still feels off about this team.
10. Auburn (3-2)
We considered putting the Tigers at No. 9 after hanging with Georgia on Saturday. But the abject lack of a pass game makes us wary. And we also won’t be surprised if the Tigers upend either LSU or Ole Miss over the next three weeks.
11. Arkansas (2-3)
The Razorbacks need to get things turned around in a hurry after three consecutive losses. But here’s the problem: the next two games are road trips to Ole Miss and Alabama. The schedule lightens up after that, but Arkansas could be left needing to go 4-1 over the final five games of the season to become bowl eligible.
12. South Carolina (2-3)
The Gamecocks have alternated losses and wins so far this season. If that continues, you can pencil in a win over Florida on Oct. 14 and a loss to Mizzou on Oct. 21. Perhaps WR Juice Wells can return after the bye week after suffering a left foot injury against Georgia on Sept. 16. That would be a big boost for QB Spencer Rattler and the offense.
13. Mississippi State (2-3)
The Bulldogs’ offensive transition from the Air Raid isn’t going well. Will Rogers is completing fewer than 60% of his passes and has thrown just seven TDs and four interceptions. Western Michigan should be a welcome respite in Week 6 before trips to Arkansas and Auburn.
14. Vanderbilt (2-4)
The Commodores have lost four in a row and three of those losses have been by either 16 or 17 points. If QB AJ Swann can return to the lineup, Vanderbilt has enough juice to get an upset somewhere down the line. But with three ranked opponents remaining (including Georgia), a bowl game is extremely unlikely.
- Nick Bromberg
Texas living up to the hype with Red River looming
For nearly 15 seasons, Texas has fallen short of expectations.
Often the source of offseason hype, the Longhorns have finished ranked in the top 10 just once since playing for the national championship back in 2009. This year, though, things seem to have changed for the better.
Now in his third season in Austin, Steve Sarkisian has assembled a loaded roster that has quickly risen to No. 3 in the AP poll through five games. The Longhorns made a statement in Week 2 when they went into Tuscaloosa and knocked off Alabama.
It was the first non-conference home loss for the Crimson Tide since 2009, and Texas was clearly the better team that day. The defense was clicking on all levels, while quarterback Quinn Ewers put together the best game of his young career and did on a major stage. There will be more of those stages for Ewers and company to play.
In addition to the road win over Alabama, Texas also took care of business against overmatched opponents like Rice, Wyoming and Baylor. The Longhorns were 4-0 headed into their matchup with No. 24 Kansas over the weekend with the rivalry showdown with No. 12 Oklahoma on the horizon.
Past Texas teams may have overlooked the Jayhawks, a well-coached team with a unique offense. Texas didn’t do that. Though the score was close into the third quarter, the Longhorns were crisp and completely outplayed the Jayhawks before pulling away as the second half progressed. What was once a 20-14 game turned into a 40-14 blowout as Texas out-gained Kansas 661 yards to just 260.
In the win, Ewers threw for 325 yards and a touchdown and also scored twice on the ground. Adonai Mitchell, a transfer receiver from Georgia, had his best game in a Texas uniform as he posted 10 catches for 141 yards and a score. It was also a breakout performance for redshirt sophomore running back Jonathon Brooks as he went off for 218 yards and two TDs.
A performance like that bodes well for this week’s meeting with Oklahoma. The Sooners went 6-7 last year in Brent Venables’ first season in Norman. Included in that record was an embarrassing 49-0 loss to the Longhorns.
Oklahoma will be out for revenge, so Texas needs to bring its A-game to stay undefeated headed into the second half of the season.
- Sam Cooper
Group of Five teams to keep an eye on
The Group of Five conferences tend to fly under the radar, but there are a few teams you should be aware of that could compete for a New Year's Six bowl berth.
Air Force: The Falcons are 5-0 and have been dominant. Air Force has outscored its opponents 188-61 and is already 3-0 in Mountain West play. The Falcons destroyed San Diego State 49-10 over the weekend and outscored the Aztecs 28-0 in the second half. AFA will host Wyoming this weekend. The Cowboys are 4-1 with their only loss coming to Texas.
Fresno State: Fresno State is the only Group of Five team ranked in the Top 25. The No. 24 Bulldogs are 5-0 with road wins over Purdue and Arizona State. They're on a bye in Week 6 before returning to action on the road against Wyoming on Oct. 7.
Georgia Southern: Clay Helton is quietly doing an excellent job in Statesboro. Helton, the former USC coach, brought an Air Raid offense to a program that has traditionally run the option. It has worked out quite well. The Eagles made a bowl game last year and are off to a 4-1 start in 2023 with Tulsa transfer Davis Brin running the show at quarterback. Georgia Southern, whose lone blemish is a loss at Wisconsin, will be a factor in the Sun Belt race.
Marshall: Another Sun Belt team off to a strong start is Marshall, which is 4-0 following a weekend win over Old Dominion. Before coming from behind to beat ODU, the Thundering Herd posted an impressive home win over Virginia Tech. Charles Huff is 20-10 in three seasons coaching the program.
Texas State: There aren't many first-year coaches who have made a bigger impact at their new program than G.J. Kinne at Texas State. Kinne has the Bobcats off to a 4-1 start, including a season-opening win over Baylor. Since it transitioned to the FBS level in 2012, Texas State has topped the four-win mark only two times — in 2013 and 2014 under Dennis Franchione. Kinne could have the Bobcats bowl eligible by mid-October.
- Sam Cooper
