MLB trade deadline fantasy baseball winners and losers

With trades spaced out over several days in the week leading up to the MLB trade deadline, there was plenty of action for fantasy managers to track, despite not witnessing an avalanche of deals in the final hours. Knowing that the trades from last week have been thoroughly reviewed in multiple places, this article will uncover the changes in fantasy value resulting from deals that were completed Monday and Tuesday.

Note: The statistics referenced below are accurate as of the start of play Aug. 1.

Justin Verlander to Astros

This trade gives off the feeling of something that’s going to be a very big deal in both the MLB landscape and fantasy circles. Verlander has been successful this year (3.15 ERA, 1.14 WHIP) and especially of late (1.69 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in July). He now returns to Houston, where he had some of the best seasons of his illustrious career from 2017 to '22. It should surprise no one if Verlander is the best starter in the American League and fantasy baseball from this point forward. Houston is clearly a comfortable place for him, and he will be backed by one of the best teams in baseball.

Aaron Civale to Rays

Civale has been effective across 13 starts this season, logging a 2.34 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. He hasn’t dominated opposing hitters (58:22 K:BB ratio) but has benefited from a .243 BABIP, which is not entirely unusual for him. His 3.67 xERA is a better indicator of his true talent, but he should continue to outperform his expected stats while pitching for a Rays squad that is famous for getting the most out of its pitchers. Add the benefit of shifting from a team that is 24th in runs scored to one that is fourth, and it’s easy to see why this deal is a major win for Civale managers.

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Paul Sewald to Diamondbacks

With a 2.78 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and 41 saves since the outset of last season, Sewald has by far the best résumé to hold sole possession of the closer’s role in Arizona for the rest of the season. The assumption here is that manager Torey Lovullo will go in that direction, with Kevin Ginkel and Scott McGough earning the occasional ninth-inning opportunity.

Back in Seattle, Andres Munoz gets a massive boost in fantasy value. The right-hander with a lifetime 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 12.8 K/9 rate is the top candidate to take over for Sewald as the Mariners' closer. In fact, Munoz earned Seattle’s first save of 2023 before landing on the injured list a few days later and watching Sewald take over closing duties. While acknowledging that Justin Topa and Matt Brash provide the team with enough options to form a closer committee, Munoz is a must-add player in most formats.

Scott Barlow to Padres

Barlow managers this season were not as lucky as those who had him rostered when he was on the trade block a year ago, as the right-hander’s reign as the Royals closer is now over. Barlow will be part of a setup committee in San Diego and can be dropped in most leagues. There is not a sure-fire replacement for Barlow in the Royals bullpen, but Carlos Hernandez (3.57 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 1 SV) is the best candidate and can be added in deep leagues. Of course, the 32-75 Royals might not generate too many opportunities down the stretch.

Jeimer Candelario to Cubs

Candelario is bouncing back nicely from a down year in 2022 and ranks 17th among third basemen in 5x5 production. Given that many of the players in front of him are also eligible at other positions, Candelario (94th overall among hitters) is lineup-worthy in most leagues despite his 49% roster rate. The 29-year-old gets a small value boost from this deal, as the Cubs have a superior lineup to the Nationals.

Jack Flaherty to Orioles

Although he is averaging roughly a strikeout per inning, Flaherty is otherwise having a forgettable season that includes a 4.43 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. The right-hander’s 45% roster rate is too high for a pitcher with his level of success this season, though there is some reason for hope now that he is a member of the Orioles. Baltimore pitchers have mostly exceeded expectations this year, thanks to a pitcher-friendly home park and talented supporting cast. Still, the advice here is to drop Flaherty in all 10-team leagues and many 12-team formats.

Michael Lorenzen to Phillies

Lorenzen leaves Detroit, where he had emerged as a reliable starter by posting a 3.58 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. The switch to Philadelphia should be a positive one in terms of offensive support, but he could be hurt by the change in home parks. Those who already have Lorenzen on the roster can keep him for now but should expect some ratio regression.

Tommy Pham to D-backs

By posting an .820 OPS and avoiding fantasy football drama, Pham has done a great job of rebuilding his value to an MLB team this year. He arrives to an Arizona team that has plenty of outfielders but few reliable ones outside of superstar Corbin Carroll. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has struggled mightily since June 1, while Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas each own an OPS under .700. Pham could turn some early August success into a full-time role down the stretch.

Josh Bell to Marlins

Bell has been consistently mediocre this season, and that is unlikely to change following a last-minute trade to the Marlins. The slugger moves from one below-average lineup to another, and the trade-off of home parks is not a favorable one. At the very least, Bell should continue to play every day.

Garrett Cooper to Padres

San Diego controlled much of the vibe of this deadline, as they chose to add a few small pieces rather than raise the white flag by trading Blake Snell and Josh Hader. As is the situation with Bell, Cooper’s fantasy value remains stable. He's still a streaming option in 12-team leagues when the Padres have favorable matchups.

Jake Burger to Marlins

With 25 homers, Burger has been a surprising power source after starting the season on waivers in most leagues. The slugger will play every day as a member of the Marlins, but this is a tough switch of home parks for someone who generates nearly all of his fantasy value via the long ball. Burger managers might want to sit him for home games against quality starters.