MLB Team Roundup: San Diego Padres
Should managers target 'safe' starting pitchers?
In the wake of injuries to starting pitchers and a higher league ERA, D.J. Short and Eric Samulski discuss whether fantasy managers should pursue reliable starting pitchers in the draft or rely on the waiver wire.
2023 record: 82-80 (.506)
Third Place, NL West
Team ERA: 3.73 ERA (2nd)
Team OPS: .742 OPS (13th)
What Went Right
The Padres wound up missing the postseason, despite boasting the third-highest payroll in baseball during the 2023 campaign. If San Diego’s metaphorical luxury yacht began taking on water during the 2023 campaign, it was Blake Snell that kept the ocean liner afloat by putting together one of the most complete start-to-finish pitching performances in recent memory, recording a microscopic 2.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 234/99 K/BB ratio across 180 innings (32 starts). The 30-year-old southpaw is a virtual lock to secure his second career Cy Young Award in a few weeks after allowing three earned runs or fewer in a staggering 30 of his 32 starts, including 23 consecutive outings to close the season. Perhaps the biggest question facing the Padres this offseason is whether they'll have the financial flexibility to bring Snell, who is set to reach free agency for the first time in his career, back on a massive multi-year commitment. San Diego's front office has shown a willingness to spend on upper-echelon talent, which would make it a significant loss if Snell, who boasts a stellar 3.15 ERA across 83 starts over the past three years with the Padres, were to wind up somewhere else this offseason.
He seems far more likely to depart via free agency, but it's undeniable that southpaw Josh Hader remains an elite fantasy closer after converting 33 saves this season to accompany a sparkling 1.28 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 85/30 K/BB ratio across 56 1/3 innings (61 appearances). There were some question marks regarding his situational availability in the closing weeks of the season, but those would presumably disappear once the ink is dry on a significant multi-year commitment this offseason. It's possible he'll wind up back in San Diego as the anchor of one of the best pitching staffs in baseball, but that remains to be seen. The Padres received stellar full-season efforts from unheralded relievers like Tom Cosgrove, Nick Martinez, Pedro Avila, Luis Garcia and Steven Wilson, who each eclipsed the 50-appearance threshold as part of one of the better relief groups in the game.
What Went Wrong
If you’re paying attention, you’ll notice that we haven’t mentioned San Diego’s star-studded lineup yet. Despite solid performances from Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim and offseason import Xander Bogaerts, it was sub-replacement level performances from the rest of San Diego's positional player groups that ultimately led to them missing the postseason. The superstars will receive the majority of the blame, but it's impossible to overlook how the Padres' lack of production at catcher, first base, center field and designated hitter torpedoed their playoff hopes. It looks like Luis Campusano is the long-term answer at catcher, and scrap-heap pickup Gary Sánchez managed to clobber 19 homers in 72 games out of nowhere, but underwhelming performances at the dish from Jake Cronenworth, Trent Grisham, Matt Carpenter, Rougned Odor, Austin Nola and Nelson Cruz were simply too much to overcome.
The Padres’ offensive issues can’t be glossed over, but the starting rotation also played a role in the club’s inability to edge out upstart rosters like the Marlins and Diamondbacks for a spot in the playoffs as both Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove were limited to fewer than 25 starts due to injury, and were both unavailable during the closing stretch of the regular season. It’s worth noting that offseason acquisitions Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha were excellent as back-end rotation stabilizers. However, a smorgasbord of temporary stopgap solutions, including Ryan Weathers, Rich Hill and Matt Waldron, were unable to adequately replace the typically steady performance of veterans like Darvish and Musgrove throughout the year.
Fantasy Slants
** Arguably the biggest non-Ohtani offseason storyline in baseball concerns whether the Padres will elect to trade Juan Soto prior to the 2024 season as he enters his final year before free agency. The 24-year-old generational superstar is likely to command one of the biggest contracts in baseball history after recording a stratospheric .946 OPS with 160 homers in 779 games over the last six seasons. Among the most consistent offensive forces in the game, thanks to his sublime plate discipline, Soto batted a robust .275/.410/.519 with 97 runs scored, a career-high 35 round-trippers, 109 RBI and 12 stolen bases across 708 plate appearances in 162 games this year in his first full-season with the Padres. He led the majors with 132 walks this season and only struck out 129 times during that span. He’ll wind up as a borderline first-round selection in traditional (non-OBP) fantasy drafts next spring as one of the premier high-floor four-category anchors in the entire landscape.
** It was a bit of a nightmare season for Joe Musgrove, who wound up missing a couple weeks at the outset of the regular season after suffering a fractured big left toe during a spring training weight room accident. The 30-year-old right-hander also wound up being shut down for the remainder of the season in early August, after posting a stellar 1.88 ERA across his previous 11 starts dating back to June 1, due to right shoulder inflammation. All indications heading into the offseason are that he'll be fully healthy heading into spring training, following an injury-plagued 2023 campaign where he was limited to just 17 starts. He'll be a popular middle-round bounce-back candidate in fantasy drafts next spring.
** Manny Machado still managed to reach the 30-homer threshold for the second straight season despite playing through a lingering right elbow issue for the majority of the 2023 campaign, which prevented him from playing third base during the final month of the year, and ultimately required offseason surgery. The surgical procedure carries a 4-6 months recovery timeline, so there's a strong possibility he winds up missing the outset of next season. It'll knock his draft-day acquisition cost down slightly in fantasy drafts next spring, but he's been one of the more reliable four-category fantasy stalwarts for nearly a decade at this juncture.
** There are very few underrated pitchers in the current landscape, but Nick Martinez might be one of them. The unheralded 33-year-old veteran right-hander has excelled the last two seasons as a versatile swingman in San Diego, compiling a pristine 3.45 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 201/81 K/BB ratio across 216 2/3 innings (110 appearances, 19 starts). Barring an onslaught of free agent acquisitions, he figures to open next spring as a full-fledged member of the Padres' starting rotation, and will be a worthwhile late-round selection for fantasy managers, especially in deeper mixed leagues.
** Fernando Tatis Jr. didn’t show any signs of rust in his return from missing the entire 2022 season due to injury and a performance-enhancing drug suspension, finishing with a .770 OPS with 25 homers and 29 stolen bases across 141 contests. The 24-year-old fantasy superstar will be a first-round selection in fantasy drafts next spring and possesses the ultra-rare combination of an extremely-high realistic floor, while also offering an extraordinarily wide range of outcomes regarding his potential upside and downside. If everything comes together, it's realistic that Tatis Jr. could wind up finishing as the top hitter in fantasy baseball next season.
Key Free Agents
Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Gary Sánchez
Team Needs
There aren't any easy answers, but the Padres' front office is seemingly going to have to roll the dice on some low-cost offseason acquisitions at several offensive positions, in addition to bracing for the potential loss of both their primary starting rotation anchor and elite closer. It’s within the realm of possibility that they manage to retain both Snell and Hader, but that seems like a long shot. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them make a serious run at some high-profile free agents in an effort to capitalize on the final season before Soto reaches free agency, but it’s possible they’ll wind up taking a step back and pivoting towards a long-term rebuilding effort. The most likely outcome would be to pivot towards some lower-cost stopgap solutions to replace both Snell and Hader, while also making an effort to sign Soto to a massive contract extension. There’s enough talent here to envision a deep postseason run, but it’s clear that San Diego is entering a bit of a transitional phase this offseason.
