MLB Team Roundup: Pittsburgh Pirates
Should managers target 'safe' starting pitchers?
In the wake of injuries to starting pitchers and a higher league ERA, D.J. Short and Eric Samulski discuss whether fantasy managers should pursue reliable starting pitchers in the draft or rely on the waiver wire.
2023 Record: 76-86 (.469)
Fourth Place, NL Central
Team ERA: 4.61 (22nd in MLB)
Team OPS: .707 (22nd in MLB)
What Went Right
After back-to-back 100-loss seasons, the Pirates ended the season at 76-86 and finished fourth in the NL Central Division. They start out of the gate hot, finishing 20-9 through the end of April, but then went into a tailspin, going 27-49 through the summer, before finishing an even 28-28 in August and September. Jack Suwinski became a bona fide roto power source, hitting a team-leading 26 bombs while also stealing 13 bases. Ke’Bryan Hayes began to showcase some over-the-fence power, and his 15 homers were the most that he has hit in a season in the major leagues. After making a swing change after he was demoted to the minor leagues, Jared Triolo showcased some intriguing hard-hit numbers and could have secured his spot on the Opening Day roster next season. Mitch Keller reached 200-plus strikeouts for the first time in his major league career, and David Bednar became one of the best closers in the league.
What Went Wrong
Oneil Cruz was limited to nine games after he fractured his ankle in a play at the plate. Going into the season, many were wondering if the colossus shortstop would be able to make the adjustments to become a star. With the truncated season, we still have the same questions. Top prospects Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Quinn Priester, and Nick Gonzales made their debut and promptly fell on their faces. Mitch Keller’s second half looked much worse than his first half, so which is the real Mitch Keller? Outside of Keller, the lack of reliable starters is quite noticeable. Johan Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, and Roansy Contreras had ERA’s above 4.30 and at times, looked unrosterable. Hopefully, first-round pick Paul Skenes will be ready to take a spot in the rotation next season.
Get an assist with your fantasy basketball draft with the Rotoworld Basketball Draft Guide. Use promo code PRESEASON25 at checkout and score a 25% discount, a $10 eGift card to Fanatics and free Season Tools with your draft guide.
Fantasy Slants
**After telling the team that he wanted to be traded, Bryan Reynolds inked a contract extension of $106.75 million and will be in Pittsburgh for the next eight seasons. He hit .263/.330/.460 on the season with 24 homers and 12 steals. He spent time on the injured list with lower back inflammation, and his production dropped after he returned. He hit more groundballs, dropping his barrel rate from 14 percent to 8.5 percent. We are now two seasons removed from his 2021 performance, where he put up 24 jacks while hitting .302/.390/.522. Could some of the contract negotiations and injury be the cause? Maybe but hopefully the older version of Bryan Reynolds returns in 2024.
**Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a bit of a tease for fantasy managers as he has always had great plate discipline. He never chased balls outside the strike zone much and made above-league average contact. However, he hit the ball on the ground too much and when he did put it in the air, it was usually to the opposite field, which is not ideal for home run production. However, after a stint on the injured list in late July, Hayes pulled the ball in the air more often. After August 1, Hayes swatted ten of his 15 dingers while hitting .299/.335/.539. Is this for real? Who knows but it is a great development for the defensive standout.
**Oneil Cruz’s season ended suddenly when he fractured his ankle sliding into home in early April. There was a small chance that the dynamic shortstop would return by the end of the season but the team ultimately decided to play it safe and gave him the entire season to rest and rehab the ankle. The biggest question going into the winter for fantasy managers is whether the gains he made during his brief nine games are to be believed or not. The 6’7” giant lowered his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate but again, it was only nine games. He will surely go later in drafts this year and his ceiling remains tantalizing.
**It was a breakout season for the Pirates center fielder, Jack Suwinski, hitting .224/.339/.454 with 26 homers and 13 steals across 534 plate appearances. He’s a worm’s best friend with a 53 percent fly ball rate and his 15.7 percent barrel rate is in the 94th percentile. However, with .608 OPS against left-handed pitching, the Pirates can easily find a place on the bench for the 24-year-old. He finished the season strong, hitting .289/.359/.489 in the season's final month but questions still remain. Will we see steady production or will it be feast and famine for Captain Jack?
**Henry Davis, the Pirates' first pick in the 2021 draft, made his debut this season, and it was a disappointing debut. The 24-year-old hit .213/.302/.351 with seven homers and three stolen bases across 255 plate appearances. He also didn’t start enough behind the plate, so he will only be outfield-eligible going into draft season this spring. He hit just .234 against fastballs this season so it might be a good idea for the Pirates to send him back to the minors to get back into the swing of things.
**Will the real Mitch Keller please stand up? Keller had a season of two halves. He looked like he was on track to have a breakout season, posting a 3.31 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 27 percent strikeout rate. After returning from All-Star festivities, the 27-year-old posted a 5.59 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 24 percent strikeout rate. After May, his average vertical release point began dropping before it bottomed out in August. He lost about an inch of vertical break on his four-seamer and his cutter lost around two inches. As far as we know, Keller wasn’t dealing with any nagging injuries but it is a bit worrisome to see this much change over the course of the season. Even with all the negatives, Keller finished the season with a career-high in games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, and wins.
**How do you follow up a 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 19 save season? David Bednar said Hold my Beer. The 28-year-old has turned into a bona fide closer, posting a 2.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 80/21 K/BB ratio to go along with 39 saves, which was tied for second most in the league. There have been rumblings since last winter that the Pirates could trade Bednar and receive a haul of prospects in return but nothing has materialized yet. Even if he is traded, he will likely remain as closer, so fantasy managers should feel confident they drafted a reliable closer when they select him in drafts this winter and spring.
**After much back and forth before the draft, the Pirates selected right-hander Paul Skenes from LSU with the first overall pick this summer. Most teams play it safe with college pitchers after the draft but the Pirates decided to give him a few starts after the draft. He started five games and finished the season in Double-A, and should debut with the Pirates sometime next season. There has been much talk about Skenes’ fastball shape and while there are concerns about it, when you can paint the corners with the amount of velocity that he can, he should be a major league starter for years to come, as long as he stays healthy, of course.
Key Free Agents
Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez
Team Needs
As Celine Dion sang “There were moments of gold and there were flashes of light”. It was quite an up and down season for Pittsburgh. The Pirates had the seventh youngest offensive group and the third youngest pitching staff, and clearly were trying to find the right mix of players from their minor league system. They have a great core of Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, and David Bednar but it might be in their best interest to sign a free agent or two to add to the mix. The team was very up and down so some veteran steadiness might be just what the doctor ordered.
If I held all the chips, I would go in on improving the starting rotation. It would likely take a lot to reel in one of the big free agent starting pitchers but I think Lucas Giolito or Sonny Gray would be a nice fit. For some offensive help, Jung Hoo Lee would be a great addition to the outfield mix and it would be great if you could sign Rhys Hoskins to add some much needed thump in the middle of the lineup.
