MLB player odds: Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge headline stat favorites ahead of Opening Day
The 2024 MLB season is...underway? Almost underway? Depending on who you ask or whether or not you considered the Seoul series the official start of the season, the MLB season has begun! So, it's time to make a few predictions.
Every year, numerous athletes break out to approach the top of the statistical leaderboards and shock the world. Last season, who would've expected Yandy Diaz to lead the American League in batting average? Who would have expected Kyle Bradish to post a sub-3.0 ERA? These are all players who very well could've led MLB in those respective categories, who were very far down oddsboards at the start of the season.
Now, we're at that junction once again. Here are the odds-on favorites to lead MLB in every major category as well as someone who could make some waves by the end of the season. All odds via DraftKings.
MLB News: Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani says he was duped by his ex-interpreter, blindsided by gambling allegations
Home Runs:
Leaders:
NYY Aaron Judge (+350)
ATL Matt Olson (+600)
NYM Pete Alonso (+700)
PHI Kyle Schwarber (+750)
NYY Juan Soto (+900)
LAD Shohei Ohtani (+900)
HOU Yordan Alvarez (+1200)
ATL Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1800)
SD Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1900)
ATL Austin Riley (+1900)
Dark Horse:
TEX Adolis Garcia (+4500)
Garcia is a very consistent hitter. Sure, he watched his batting average drop from .262 in the first half of 2023 to .217 in the second half, but the power remained. Even when he wasn't getting hits, he still posted a .493 slugging percentage and his at-bats per home run did not dip. In fact, it improved in the second half.
Garcia has the tools to improve his average and 30 home runs might be his floor in 2024. With the right adjustments during the offseason, Garcia could see his undoubtedly home run totals sky rocket to 45 or even 50.
Runs Batted In:
Leaders:
LAD Shohei Ohtani (+650)
NYY Juan Soto (+750)
HOU Yordan Alvarez (+750)
NYY Aaron Judge (+800)
NYM Pete Alonso (+850)
ATL Matt Olson (+900)
LAD Freddie Freeman (+900)
TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1000)
ATL Austin Riley (+1100)
HOU Kyle Tucker (+1600)
Dark Horse:
BAL Gunnar Henderson (+5000)
The Baltimore Orioles finished 7th in MLB in runs scored a season ago (807). Now, several of their young stars have developed. More young studs like Rookie of the Year frontrunner Jackson Holliday are on the way, and the Orioles have positioned themselves to be frontrunners in the daunting AL East once again.
Henderson spent most of 2023 at the top of the Orioles' lineup, but didn't hit particularly well at that spot, slashing .259/.320/.506 when batting first in the lineup. That's great, but not as great as what Henderson accomplished when he was batting second or third in the Orioles' lineup. In 25 games batting second, Henderson slashed .303/.326/.523. In six games batting third, he slashed .370/.393/.778. The Orioles may have Henderson lead off often, but he should hopefully get more opportunities toward the middle of the lineup as well. With even more talent coming in to surround Henderson, he could break out for 100+ RBI easily.
Stolen Bases:
Leaders:
ATL Ronald Acuna Jr. (+150)
OAK Esteury Ruiz (+250)
CIN Elly De La Cruz (+600)
ARI Corbin Carroll (+700)
WAS CJ Abrams (+800)
KC Bobby Witt Jr. (+900)
SEA Julio Rodriguez (+3000)
PHI Trea Turner (+4000)
CHC Nico Hoerner (+4000)
ATL Michael Harris (+4000)
Dark Horse:
PIT Oneil Cruz (+7000)
Even though Oneil Cruz is related to one of the favorites, Elly De La Cruz, and has proven to be a bona fide base stealer, Oneil Cruz has seemingly been forgotten as a threat on the basepaths. Sure, he hasn't done much base stealing in the past, but if the Pirates ever let him off the leash, he could do some damage.
For starters, he ranked in the 83rd percentile among MLB players in sprint speed a season ago, according to Baseball Savant. However, in 2022, he was in the top 2% of all MLB players in sprint speed. In fact, Oneil's 90-feet sprint time is just .12 seconds slower than Elly's. Give Oneil some opportunities, and he can be a nightmare for opposing catchers. Obviously, the biggest drawback is that he hasn't given himself much opportunity.
Strikeouts:
Leaders:
ATL Spencer Strider (+150)
TOR Kevin Gausman (+900)
CIN Hunter Greene (+1200)
BAL Corbin Burnes (+1500)
MIN Pablo Lopez (+1500)
KC Cole Ragans (+1700)
LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+1700)
DET Tarik Skubal (+2000)
SF Blake Snell (+2000)
SD Dylan Cease (+2500)
Dark Horse:
MIN Joe Ryan (+5000)
Of all players with at least 185 strikeouts a season ago, only Freddy Peralta (11.4), Kevin Gausman (11.5), Blake Snell (11.7), and Spencer Strider (13.5) struck out opposing hitters at a higher rate than Joe Ryan (11.0). Ryan is an innings eater with devastating stuff, and he could get much better in 2024 considering both BABIP (.305) and HR/FB (14.9%) were both rather high in 2023.
Wins:
Leaders:
ATL Spencer Strider (+650)
LAD Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+800)
PHI Zack Wheeler (+1000)
HOU Framber Valdez (+1000)
BAL Corbin Burnes (+1200)
ATL Max Fried (+1500)
LAD Tyler Glasnow (+1600)
SEA Luis Castillo (+1800)
ARI Zac Gallen (+2000)
DET Tarik Skubal (+2000)
Dark Horse:
LAD Bobby Miller (+3000)
When it comes to predicting wins, it's best to go with really good teams. The Dodgers are undoubtedly one of the best teams in baseball and they have suffered a flurry of injuries to their starting rotation. Although Miller pitched a worrisome amount of innings between Triple-A and MLB a season ago, Miller has refuted claims that his arm was worn out, even claiming "[He's] feeling better than ever."
Miller is backed by one of the best offenses in baseball, and has the luxury of competing on a decimated rotation, meaning his spot in the rotation is likely very safe. At +3000 odds, going with the pitcher currently listed as the No. 3 starter on Los Angeles isn't a bad bet at all.
Saves:
Leaders:
CLE Emmanuel Clase (+450)
HOU Josh Hader (+650)
NYM Edwin Diaz (+800)
SF Camilo Doval (+800)
BAL Craig Kimbrel (+1200)
NYY Clay Holmes (+1200)
ARI Paul Sewald (+1400)
MIN Jhoan Duran (+1400)
ATL Raisel Iglesias (+1500)
PIT David Bednar (+1500)
Dark Horse:
MIL Devin Williams (+7000)
The Milwaukee Brewers are not as good as they were a season ago. That's undeniable, but Devin Williams is still arguably the best closer in baseball. He doesn't mess up very often, so when the Brewers need a win in a close game, they'll turn to him more often than any other team in the league will with their own closer.
Furthermore, The NL Central will not be a good division this year. As underwhelming as Milwaukee is heading into the season, there's still a good chance the Brewers will be in contention for a division title late into the year, meaning more opportunities for Williams to rack up saves.
Williams was fifth in MLB in saves just last season. Although the team might not win as many games this year, the team will probably lean on Williams more often in 2024 than they have in the past. Not one closer with more saves than Williams in 2023 pitched fewer innings than the Brewers' southpaw, meaning there is certainly room for the save statistic to grow in Williams' favor.
When does the MLB season start?
Although the Seoul series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres is behind us, the rest of the league kicks off their MLB regular seasons on Thursday, March 28. The first game that day will be Brewers-Mets, scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET/10:10 a.m. PT.
MLB's very bad week: Shohei Ohtani gambling scandal, union civil war before Opening Day
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB odds: Favorites to dominate home runs, wins, and more player bets
