MLB experts offer realistic comp for Ohtani trade package
MLB experts offer realistic comp for Ohtani trade package originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
If the Los Angeles Angels were to trade Shohei Ohtani this summer, what should they expect in return?
Trading the two-way superstar and American League MVP frontrunner certainly would net the Angels a historic haul of prospects. Or would it?
The Orange County Register's Angels beat writer Jeff Fletcher spoke with former MLB general manager Jim Duquette and one anonymous current executive about what the Ohtani's value is, and offered a possible comp for what a trade package might look like.
Both Duquette and the anonymous executive believe the haul of prospects could be limited because Ohtani is a rental and that the fair market value might not match Ohtani's perceived value.
“There are many teams that will say, ‘I don’t care how good a rental he is, I can’t give you hundreds of millions of dollars of future value,’” the executive told Fletcher. “That’s going to wipe out a handful of clubs. … I just don’t know where the obvious fit is, where someone is desperate to give that complete overpay.”
“That’s why it’s so difficult to trade him,” Duquette added. “Anything less and you feel like you’re getting cheated. And you have to sell Arte Moreno, who is one of the most difficult owners in the sport.”
So, realistically, what would it cost to trade for Ohtani?
"The best comp for an Ohtani trade in recent years is probably a trade in which there were two premium players moved -- ace Max Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner were traded from the Washington Nationals to the Dodgers at the deadline in 2021," Fletcher wrote.
"Scherzer was a rental pitcher, like Ohtani. Turner is obviously not as valuable offensively as Ohtani, but he plays shortstop and — more important — had a whole year of control remaining."
The Nationals traded both Scherzer and Turner in exchange for Los Angeles' top two prospects at the time, catcher Keibert Ruiz (No. 41 in MLB) and right-hander Josiah Gray (No. 42 in MLB) plus the team's 17th overall prospect in right-hander Gerardo Carrillo and outfielder Donovan Casey.
Duquette told Fletcher that it’s “fair” to say Ohtani by himself is worth about the same as Scherzer and Turner, while the anonymous executive said that’s “probably pretty good,” in terms of a comparison. However, if the Angels received a similar haul of prospects, Duquette believes the move would not go over well within the organization and throughout the fanbase.
“People would be outraged if you look at it that way,” Duqette said. “But that’s the reality. Within the Anaheim fanbase, you’d say that isn’t enough.”
If the Dodgers and Nationals' blockbuster trade were to serve as an accurate framework for the Giants' possible trade package to the Angels, what would a deal look like? First off, the Giants' top two prospects (Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano) currently are ranked 11th and 15th on MLB.com's Top 100 prospect list compared to Ruiz and Gray who were ranked 41 and 42 at the time, respectively.
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However, Ohtani certainly will be valued more by Angels owner Arte Moreno and general manager Perry Minasian than Scherzer and Turner were by the Nationals' front office at the time. A similar framework likely would include the Giants' top two prospects (Harrison and Luciano), a middle-tier prospect (Keaton Winn, Will Bednar, Jairo Pomares, Carson Seymour or Heliot Ramos?) and a lower-tier prospect.
Would that package of prospects convince the Angels, who previously were dead-set on not trading Ohtani under any circumstances before reportedly "considering" the idea in recent days? Probably not.
As unlikely as an Ohtani trade is at this point, it might be even more unlikely that a team will come closer to meeting the asking price of an Angels brass that is seeking a historic haul for a historic player.
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