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MLB betting: Which teams can reach 100 wins?

Pete Truszkowski
·6 min read
3

We are just over one week away from the start of the MLB season, which means baseball is coming to the front of mind over the next few days. Hope is abundant during spring training as every fan base hopes this year will be the one for their team. If you're truly feeling good about your team, now is the time to put your money where your mouth is and invest in the futures market at BetMGM.

While looking over the odds, one particular market stood out. Currently, you can bet on whether you think a team will reach the 100-win mark during the regular season, and almost all of the payouts are extremely lucrative. Is there reason to consider investing in this market?

The frequency of 100 win seasons is up

If you take a look at the betting odds for this market, the Los Angeles Dodgers are +120 to reach the 100-win mark. Every other team is at least 9-to-1 to get there. That means that the oddsmakers consider 29 of the 30 MLB teams an extreme long shot to get to the 100-win threshold. While they aren't wrong, 100 win seasons are becoming more common than they were a few years ago.

From 2005 through 2016, over 12 seasons, only six teams won 100 games. That's one every other year on average. In no season did more than one team win 100+ games. Winning 100 games was truly a rare and commendable feat that was the cap on a dominant season.

However, from 2017 through last year, 13 teams have won 100+ games in a single season. This doesn't even account for the fact that 2020 was a shortened season. So in the last four normal seasons, we're averaging over three 100-win teams per year. Each season during this time has featured at least three 100-win teams.

Why is this the case? The best guess is the separation between good teams and bad teams. These days, it seems like a whole bunch of teams have no interest in winning games. Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Baltimore all currently have payrolls under $40 million. How are they supposed to compete in a league where six teams currently have payrolls over $195 million? Teams like the Reds, Athletics, Nationals and Cubs have all entered in rebuilds and traded away top talent over the last calendar year. If there's more bad teams, the good teams have more opportunities to pile up wins.

The Dodgers are basically expected to reach 100 wins

The Dodgers have reached 100 wins in three of the last four full seasons. They've appeared in the World Series in three of the last five years and oddsmakers have no reason to expect them to take a step back. As a result, the Dodgers are just +120 to reach the 100-win threshold. They are the only team with better than +900 odds.

SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - MARCH 24: Infielder Freddie Freeman #5 of the Los Angeles Dodgers walks to the dugout during the second inning of the MLB spring training game against the Colorado Rockies at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on March 24, 2022 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Freddie Freeman and the Dodgers are the most likely MLB team to reach 100 wins. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Los Angeles lost to the Atlanta Braves in the World Series last year after a 106-win regular season. This offseason, they made one of the biggest acquisitions of the winter when they signed Freddie Freeman. They'll also have reigning MLB hit leader Trea Turner for a full season. Cody Bellinger can't possibly have a worse season than he did in 2021. Mookie Betts is also a much better player than he showed last year. They won't have Max Scherzer this year, but their rotation is still very good and the organization has no issue developing pitchers. If Trevor Bauer pitches in 2022, that'll simply be icing on the cake for Los Angeles.

Which other teams can push for 100 wins?

Now that we got the boring chalky pick out of the way, let's take a look at three teams that offer lucrative potential payouts if they can get to the 100-win mark.

  • Chicago White Sox: The White Sox have one of the best lineups in baseball with Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez. They also have three very good starting pitchers in Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease. Dallas Keuchel has pitched at a Cy Young level in the past and Michael Kopech looks to transition from the bullpen to the rotation. The bullpen also might be the best bullpen in baseball. The AL Central is also far from scary. Chicago will play 76 games against the Twins, Tigers, Guardians and Royals. There's some potential in those teams, but Chicago is clearly the cream of the crop. The White Sox are +900 to win 100-games after winning 93 last year.

  • Milwaukee Brewers: Yahoo Sportsbook's Frank Schwab took a look at the Brewers as a potential value-bet to win the World Series. The offense has some intriguing pieces, but definitely isn't the most frightening part of this team. Milwaukee has three legitimate aces in Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta. They also have arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball with Josh Hader. However, the main reason I'd consider backing the Brewers is their division. I don't think the Cubs, Reds or Pirates are particularly interested in winning baseball games this summer. The Cardinals will be competition, but the rest of the division offers an opportunity to collect a lot of wins. Milwaukee is 30-to-1 to win 100 games, a year after finishing with 95 wins.

  • San Diego Padres: No team was more disappointing last season than the San Diego Padres. Many had them pushing for the division with the Dodgers, but they fell apart in the second-half and missed the postseason completely. This year, they'll start the season without their star player in Fernando Tatis Jr. However, I'm still bullish on the Padres. Mike Clevinger will pitch this year, joining a rotation with Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell. In Tatis' absence, the Padres will likely get to take a look at top prospect CJ Abrams. The Padres will also get to beat up on the Rockies and Diamondbacks in the NL West, while everyone in the world expects the Giants to take a step backward this season as well. Even without Tatis, there's enough talent on the Padres to be a good team which will make his return feel like trading for an MVP-level talent mid-season. The Padres are 40-to-1 to win 100-games, and I don't hate the value there.

Odds for teams to win 100 games

Which teams do the oddsmakers view as most likely to win 100 games this season?

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (+120)

  • Houston Astros (+900)

  • Toronto Blue Jays (+900)

  • Chicago White Sox (+900)

  • New York Yankees (12-to-1)

  • Atlanta Braves (12-to-1)

  • New York Mets (20-to-1)

  • Tampa Bay Rays (20-to-1)

  • Milwaukee Brewers (30-to-1)

  • San Diego Padres (40-to-1)

  • San Francisco Giants (100-to-1)

  • St. Louis Cardinals (100-to-1)

  • Los Angeles Angels (200-to-1)