MLB betting: Milwaukee Brewers, of all teams, might be a good World Series value bet

There are three teams with better than a 10 percent chance to win the World Series, based on Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings.

The first two are obvious. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the World Series favorite at BetMGM with +500 odds, are at 17.7 percent. The New York Yankees (+1100 odds) are at 15.5 percent. Two of the biggest brands in the sport. Two of the biggest payrolls, too.

The third team that has better than a 10 percent chance to win it all? How about a team that hasn't even been to the World Series since 1982?

If you're looking for a value play on a World Series futures bet, maybe it's the Milwaukee Brewers.

Are the Brewers a contender?

The release of the PECOTA standings by Baseball Prospectus is an annual event for stat nerds and bettors too. It's a great resource to cross-check season win totals, divisional odds and World Series favorites.

The Brewers are pretty far ahead of everyone but the Dodgers and Yankees. They have a 10.1 percent chance to win it all. The Chicago White Sox have the fourth-best World Series odds at PECOTA, with 7.7 percent.

That doesn't match BetMGM's odds. The Brewers are tied for the ninth-best odds, at 16-to-1. Based on implied odds, that's about a 5.9 percent chance. That's the kind of discrepancy bettors looking for value would find interesting.

There also might be some value in the Brewers' win total (93 at PECOTA, 89.5 at BetMGM) and to win the NL Central (-150 odds at BetMGM, 86.4 percent chance to win the division at PECOTA) too. The only issue might be believing the Brewers — who have had such little success through their five decades — can live up to expectations.

Brewers' pitching is impressive

If you don't believe in PECOTA, Fangraphs' World Series odds have the Brewers at 6.1 percent, which is lined up with their BetMGM odds.

But there are reasons to believe the Brewers could be quite good this season. They have an impressive top three at the beginning of their rotation: last season's Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. Their bullpen is anchored by Josh Hader, perhaps the best reliever in baseball. The bats disappeared in the playoffs last season and offense might be an issue, but it would be a big boon if Christian Yelich regained his MVP form after two down seasons.

If you buy into the Brewers' playoff odds (81.9 percent Fangraphs, 93.8 percent PECOTA), you'd at least have a playoff team at +1600 odds when October rolls around. The Brewers might not have the money or minor-league system depth to make a huge move at the deadline, but they have been aggressive before. If the hitting is decent and the pitching stays healthy, the Brewers should be good.

Maybe they'll end up looking like a good bet on those World Series odds. That hasn't been the case since 1982.