Michigan's J.J. McCarthy will be center of 2024 NFL Draft debate storm

J.J. McCarthy is known for walking barefoot out onto the pregame field, leaning up against the base of the goal post and meditating. He so appreciates the soothing beats of reggae that he named his dog "Marley." His teammates say his day-to-day demeanor never sways — positive vibes only.

Maybe he is perfectly equipped for what is coming.

The NFL Draft ringer.

There is always one. There is always a player, often a quarterback, who inspires not just debate, but at times passionate support and/or vitriol, concerning his projected abilities at the next level. He serves, unwittingly, as the cornerstone for the two or three months of “draft debate.”

It can be anyone. Future MVPs — Cam Newton, Lamar Jackson. Future flameouts — Johnny Manziel, JaMarcus Russell. They can be famous college players — Tim Tebow — or small-school unknowns — Trey Lance.

Hand size can become a thing. Accuracy rates on second-down throws outside the numbers can become a thing. Weird charts and analytic formulas can become a thing. One incredible toss during a scripted Pro Day can change everything (ahem, Zach Wilson).

At its worst there are leaked test scores, sourced claims of poor interviewing skills or nebulous concerns over “character.” No one knows what’s true or what’s planted in the media to scare off other teams.

How it will play out for McCarthy, fresh off leading the University of Michigan to a national championship, is unknown. It appears clear, however, that it is coming — the prospect at the center of a coming storm.

Trying to project who will and won’t succeed as a quarterback in the NFL is a vacuum of uncertainty. The entire league passed on Jackson despite winning a Heisman at Louisville for all to see. He’s a two-time MVP for Baltimore, which got him with the last pick of the first round.

San Francisco traded a ransom to pick Lance third overall, even though he was coming off a single-game season at FCS North Dakota State. Of course, the same front office responsible for that blunder had a keen enough eye to land Brock Purdy with the last pick of the seventh round.

Nobody knows. Nobody.

Yet stories need to be written, air time needs to be filled and arguments from bars to barbershops need to be had. It’s all fun and games, unless, perhaps, you are the guy getting ripped to shreds.

McCarthy is the debate point this year and there is ample reason to believe or not believe in him as an NFL prospect.

You can begin with his 27-1 record as a starter. Or the national title. Or the testimonials from his coaches — Jim Harbaugh grades him “A-plus, plus, plus” in just about every category and declared that at the college level, no Michigan quarterback has ever been better (Tom Brady gets the nod in the NFL, naturally).

McCarthy is not just mobile, but very effective throwing on the run. He makes plays. His third-and-long conversion percentage is among the best of any prospect ever. He completed 72.3 percent of his passes last season and his touchdown-to-interception rate over the past two seasons is 44-9, if you want old-school numbers.

That said, Michigan didn’t rely on him the way most top-10 draft prospects are relied on. There aren’t a lot of highlight reel throws and McCarthy was not good (two picks and a fumble) in a playoff semifinal loss to TCU in 2022. The Wolverines were about blocking and running, and tackling. They famously ran the ball 32 consecutive times to beat Penn State in 2023 (there was one pass but it was negated by penalty).

Is it a concern that a team would have a high first-round pick at quarterback and not call pass plays? Or is it a positive that McCarthy is so team-first he not only wouldn’t care about such a thing but instead celebrated the strategy because he just wants to win?

Those are the kind of questions that lack a definitive answer.

Yahoo Sports' Nate Tice had McCarthy as his 35th overall draft prospect on his top 40 big board. "I think coaches from Kyle Shanahan offenses will like McCarthy more than others because of his ability to throw on the move and drive the ball in the intermediate areas," Tice wrote. In his latest mock draft, Tice has McCarthy going 11th overall.

NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah didn’t initially have a first-round grade on McCarthy. Now he’s slated to go No. 8 in his latest mock draft. ESPN’s Mel Kiper said the “top 10” is too high for McCarthy and said the New York Giants should stick with Daniel Jones instead because he has more “upside.”

Of course, how McCarthy throws Saturday in Indianapolis could change all of those opinions, in any direction.

“With J.J., I have said he is an acquired taste,” Jeremiah said. “When … you are watching TV, and you are like, ‘Gosh, they don't ask him to do much.’ They run the ball. They play great defense. He will manage the game …

“When you dig into the tape and really watch it and watch on third downs where they throw the ball and they do put the ball in his hands, there's a lot to like with him,” Jeremiah continued. “He has a really quick mind. He has a quick release. Just everything he does is real smooth.”

And then there is this, perhaps a new metric of evaluation:

“He never gets bored with completions,” Jeremiah said. “Some other guys in his class get in trouble [by] big-play hunting. If you are going to get him check-downs or completions, he is never going to get bored taking those.”

Never bored with completions?

Let the debate machine begin. Good luck to J.J. McCarthy.