Michigan vs. Illinois: Three keys to a Michigan football victory
Michigan’s last home game of the season will be played on Saturday when the Wolverines host the Illinois Fighting Illini (7-3).
Illinois has lost two games in a row and needs a win on Saturday against the undefeated Wolverines to stay relevant for a Big Ten West title.
The maize and blue have not played Illinois since 2019 when Michigan won, 42-25. But the Wolverines have dominated the series against the Illini. Michigan holds the all-time series edge against Illinois, 71-23-2, and the Wolverines have won the last five meetings.
As long as Chase Brown suits up to play, this game will feature, arguably, the best two running backs in football. The strong suit of both teams is their running attacks. Blake Corum and Brown will look to have big days against stingy run defenses.
Here are our three keys to a Michigan victory over Illinois.
Limit the Illini run game
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If Chase Brown suits up against Michigan, Bret Bielema told the media he was trending that way, this will be the best run attack the Wolverines have faced all season.
Illinois has the 40th-ranked rushing offense in football, averaging 183.6 yards per game, and Brown is the second-leading rusher in football, 144.2 yards per game.
Illinois gains just about as many yards on the ground as it does through the air — 218.7 yards passing per game. If Brown doesn’t suit up, the majority of the Illini’s offense is down the drain. The second-leading rusher on Illinois is sophomore Reggie Love III and he averages 18.8 yards per game.
While Michigan has the best run defense in all of football, it’s hard to believe it can completely shut down Brown. But if the Wolverines can limit Brown from averaging his usual five yards per carry and take it down to two or three yards per carry, then the maize and blue will force Illinois into some tough third-down conversions.
Tommy DeVito has been good for the Illini, but he doesn’t have much of a long ball. He completes 70% of his passes but he only averages 7 yards per attempt. The Illini doesn’t have much of an explosive passing attack which is why they rely so heavily on Brown.
Now, if Brown doesn’t suit up on Saturday this game could get really ugly, quickly.
Get into the red zone and punch it in
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Michigan will be up against one of the better running offenses it has faced this season. In addition, the Wolverines’ offense is going up against the toughest defense, statistically, on Saturday.
Illinois has the third-ranked scoring defense (12.5 ppg) and the second-ranked total defense (246.9 ypg). Illinois has a really sound red zone defense as well allowing teams to score points 76% of the time and the Fighting Illini allows touchdowns just 42% of the time.
Michigan has vastly improved in the last two weeks in the red zone. The Wolverines are scoring points 94% of the time they reach the red zone, and in the past two weeks, they have scored nine touchdowns in 11 attempts.
The only way to put sneaky, potential trap games away is to score touchdowns when opportunities present themselves. If the Wolverines can continue their ascend in the red zone against Illinois then the maize and blue could put this game away sooner rather than later.
Focus on the current opponent
Photo: Isaiah Hole
Every single year you hear the magic words ‘trap game’. Those two words are being said around the country this week for a couple of different teams and Michigan is one of those.
The Wolverines are favored by 18 points against the Illini (7-3) who have lost two straight games, but Illinois was looking like a top-10 team a few weeks ago. It’s not a secret that Michigan has its biggest game of the year next week when the Wolverines will travel to Columbus to take on Ohio State. Both teams should be undefeated with everything on the line, but the key word there is should.
The Illini not only wants to make a statement by defeating the undefeated Michigan Wolverines, but Illinois wants to win the Big Ten West and a loss on Saturday will basically eliminate the Illini from contention.
Michigan is going to get everything Illinois has, especially if Chase Brown plays, so the Wolverines can’t be caught looking at Ohio State. The Wolverines have an undefeated season on the line and the Illini should be the only thing the maize and blue are looking at.
If Michigan comes into the game focused then the Wolverines have a great chance of covering the spread. Let’s be honest, this is the most talented team Illinois will have faced all year.
