Michigan State vs. Michigan football: 5 determining factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State's football game vs. Michigan (7-0, 4-0 Big Ten), 7:30 Saturday. TV: NBC. Betting line: Michigan -24

1. Can MSU score against the Wolverines?

Michigan is allowing a paltry 6.7 points per game, best in college football. I know the Wolverines haven’t played a dynamite schedule, but they’ve played four Big Ten teams and none of them have scored more than 10 points against them. MSU’s three offensive touchdowns last week at Rutgers were more than the Spartans had produced in their three previous games combined. There’s both hope and concern for MSU in that last sentence.

By most statistics, in Big Ten play, MSU is a middling offense — on the ground and through the air. Capable, but not scary. The Spartans are likely to get three to five real chances at scoring on Saturday. If they don’t turn that into 27-plus points, they’ve got no shot. If you’re looking for hope, the offense with Katin Houser at quarterback showed a knack for finishing in the red zone last week at Rutgers, putting up 24 points on five red zone trips. Problem is, Michigan beat Rutgers 31-7. MSU will have to show a gear offensively we haven’t seen yet.

2. Can the Spartans’ defense make J.J. McCarthy and U-M’s offense uncomfortable

The Wolverines know who they are offensively and they haven’t been forced to deviate to this point. They’ve got the line, the weapons and the quarterback and know they’ve got the juice to wear you down and a defense that allows them to take their time to do so. At some point, someone is going to make Michigan a little uncomfortable, to force J.J. McCarthy to make plays in unfavorable downs in a close game.

For MSU to have any chance, the Spartans are going to have to be that team. Their defense has been sound and timely with its aggressiveness over most of the last five halves. It’s worth taking some risks to get to McCarthy and test his mettle. Because straight up, MSU just doesn’t have the dudes defensively — or enough offensive punch of its own — to get this done. Not without turnovers and without the Wolverines being thrown off-kilter. If Michigan doesn’t look flustered offensively at some point deep into this game, MSU won’t be closer than three touchdowns at the end.

3. MSU’s special teams

I don’t think MSU’s players could stomach another game they have in their grasp only for their special teams units to blow it. If MSU’s offense and defense pull out some magic this week and challenge the Wolverines, the Spartans’ special teams units better do their part. No dropped punts, no low kicks that are easily returned, no muffed returns, no illegal formation penalties. MSU’s special teams — its punting and returns units especially — owe themselves, and the roster at large, the most crisp, mistake-free game they’ve played.

4. Just how good is Michigan

One can make the case that Michigan hasn’t played any serious competition yet. By that same standard, MSU isn’t serious competition, either. So, for the purposes of this game, the fact that the Wolverines have suffocated seven straight opponents is relevant. I do think this has a chance to be a great Michigan team. Because part of being great is consistency, identity and discipline. And the Wolverines appear to have all three (MSU, conversely, to this point, has shown none of the three.). Michigan leads the nation in fewest penalty yards at 17.6 per game. Meanwhile, MSU is last in the Big Ten at 66 per game. The difference there is almost a full drive per game, never mind the multiple drives MSU hinders for itself or extends for its opponents.

The Wolverines have playmakers to worry about — McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, receivers Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson, tight end Colston Loveland. All of those guys would be standouts on the Spartans’ roster. And Michigan has the offensive line that allows those guys to cook. Defensively, while the Wolverines haven’t played a vibrant Big Ten offense yet, they’ve got difference-makers and what appears to be collective discipline and trust. They haven’t yet allowed any opposing offense any hope. That might change when they face Penn State in a few weeks. But it’s hard to imagine MSU’s offense being the group to punch holes in them.

MORE: Couch: In the Michigan State and Michigan football rivalry, two years feels like a decade

5. The vibe at Spartan Stadium

Tom Izzo is doing his part to fill Spartan Stadium, hosting a men’s basketball scrimmage in the afternoon, one more incentive to get fans on campus and to the football game. It’ll be interesting to see what percentage of the crowd is Michigan fans and, if things turn dark for the Spartans, what it looks like in the second half. I think a lot of MSU fans are torn — they don’t want to abandon these players and be part of the problem, but nor do they really want to watch this game up close in person. My guess is that it’s a decent MSU fan showing at kickoff, that at least 50,000 of those in attendance when the game starts will be Spartan fans. But this could also turn into a fourth quarter where Michigan fans outnumber the MSU faithful and all you hear is their voices.

Prediction

There is no evidence thus far this season that MSU has any shot in this game. Plus, Michigan is now being investigated for illegally scouting its opponents ahead of time. That can't help. To predict an upset, you’re leaning on history, games where the Spartans pulled off an unexpected win. None of those matchups were quite like this one in terms of where the two teams are. Perhaps Katin Houser in his second start at quarterback becomes John Elway or channels Rocky Lombardi’s 2020 showing and starts raining deep passes on the Wolverines. That, however, turned out to be a bad Michigan defense. This isn’t. This isn’t going to happen for the Spartans. Best-case scenario for MSU is a final score in the range of 31-10 that doesn’t feel all that embarrassing. Worst case … you don’t want to go there.

Make it: Michigan 40, MSU 10

MORE: Couch: Michigan State football coaching search is a defining period for MSU's program

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.

This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: Michigan football at MSU: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line