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Michigan State basketball: Win over Illinois critical for Spartans' path to postseason

EAST LANSING — It was much more than a lifeline. Knocking off No. 12 Illinois gave Michigan State basketball’s NCAA tournament push a massive jolt.

For the Spartans, it was not only a second victory over a ranked opponent, but a flood of confidence heading toward the postseason, on top of the toughness Tom Izzo’s team showed in getting it done.

Assuming MSU avoids an upset over the final seven games of the regular season — no easy task considering the topsy-turvy nature of the Big Ten this winter — Izzo likely will extend his NCAA streak, a record for a coach with a single school, to 26 straight appearances. And much like Saturday’s 88-80 comeback victory from eight points down against the Illini, it hasn’t come easy.

“Let’s face it: Our backs are a little bit against the wall. But I deal with that,” Izzo said after watching his team close the win on a 13-4 burst over the final 2:15. “I tell them right out. … I just think that they don’t understand. They just think they’re at Michigan State, so it’s in the cards that you’re in the tournament and you’re this and you’re that. So we’ve had some hellacious meetings on that.”

Michigan State's A.J. Hoggard, left, celebrates with Tyson Walker late during the second half in the game against Illinois on Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
Michigan State's A.J. Hoggard, left, celebrates with Tyson Walker late during the second half in the game against Illinois on Saturday, Feb. 10, 2024, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.

SHAWN WINDSOR: Tom Izzo, A.J. Hoggard often at odds. Michigan State basketball's win shows it's worth it.

Said senior point guard A.J. Hoggard, who keyed the victory with 13 of his 23 points in the final 12:27: “It was definitely like a March Madness type feel. It was good to just be able to win this one.”

At 15-9 overall and 7-6 in Big Ten play, the Spartans moved up a spot in the NCAA's NET rankings, entering Sunday at No. 23 thanks to the win over the Illini, who are No. 14. Asked where that victory can take his team with the postseason fast approaching, senior Tyson Walker gave a smile and a quick, correctly circumspect response: “In the right direction.”

Because every loss from here out could negate the gains made Saturday.

Into the NET

With the Illinois road win, MSU's 11th victory in 15 games, the Spartans are now 3-7 against Quad 1 opponents and 2-2 against Quad 2 foes, along with a 10-0 record against the lower two quadrants. Izzo's team also has a résumé-boosting neutral-court victory — in Detroit, but still, technically, a neutral court — against Baylor, which is No. 13 in both the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll and the NCAA's own NET rankings. The other Quad 1 win came at home against Indiana State, which is No. 20 in the NET.

The Spartans have another chance to get their second road victory this season when they visit Penn State on Wednesday (6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network). The Nittany Lions (12-12, 6-7), who lost by five points Sunday at Northwestern, entered the day ranked No. 98 in the NET, which would make Wednesday a Quad 2 game for MSU.

Here is a quick refresher on what those quadrants mean based on the opponents’ NET ranking:

  • Quadrant 1: Home, 1-30; neutral, 1-50; away, 1-75.

  • Quadrant 2: Home, 31-75; neutral, 51-100; away, 76-135.

  • Quadrant 3: Home, 76-160; neutral, 101-200; away, 135-240.

  • Quadrant 4: Home, 161-353; neutral, 201-353; away, 241-353.

Although those rankings fluctuate throughout the season, the Illinois game was vital because the Spartans have only one other chance remaining at a Quad 1 win — March 3 against No. 2 Purdue in West Lafayette, Indiana, where MSU has not won in a decade.

Path to postseason

Like the upcoming visit to Penn State, the Spartans' have five other games remaining that (as of Sunday) fall into Quad 2.

That includes their rivalry game next Saturday at Michigan (No. 111 in NET entering Sunday), along with home games with Iowa (No. 65) and Ohio State (No. 72) before the trip to play Purdue. MSU wraps up the season with a home game March 6 against Northwestern (No. 55) and on the road March 10 at Indiana (No. 100).

Illinois coach Brad Underwood pointed to the parity across the conference making it difficult for any team, other than Purdue, to get separation in the standings.

“You know 75% of the games are gonna be two-possessions,” he said, “because everybody's equal. Everybody's got the same thing. And it becomes toughness and it becomes grit and it becomes a mental toughness and focus. And that usually decides the game.”

The game against the Nittany Lions won’t be nearly as easy as the Spartans’ 92-61 home blowout win Jan. 4. Penn State had won three straight, including on the road at Rutgers and Indiana, before Sunday’s loss. PSU also has home wins over No. 11 Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa and is 10-3 this season at Bryce Jordan Center.

MSU’s only road win came Jan. 21 at Maryland. The Spartans are 1-5 in other Big Ten venues, including Tuesday’s 59-56 collapse at Minnesota that was a Quad 2 loss.

Hoggard said it is imperative for MSU to bottle the focus it showed against the Illini and carry it into the final month before the Big Ten tournament, set for March 13-17 in Minneapolis.

“We just kind of gotta put that together every game, no matter who we're playing. Not just when a top-10 team comes in here or we go on the road and play one,” he said. “We just kind of gotta put it together every game and continue to build our résumé for later on this season.”

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State basketball: Win over Illinois vital to postseason path