Michigan Football Keys To The Game: Florida
Brandon Brown
We’re only a few days away from the opener now, at which point many questions about this Michigan team will be answered.
Florida, the opponent, has many of its own, but there is one thing certain — the Gators, for any of their shortcomings, still have plenty of athletes. They’ve hauled in the country’s No. 23, No. 14 and No. 9 recruiting classes in the last three years, and the team speed is impressive.
First games aren’t always an indicator of how a season will go, but a loss here would be akin to losing the first game of a double-elimination baseball or softball tournament … lose, and it’s a long climb back to the top with no margin for error, especially since each team is starting just outside the top 10 of the national rankings (Michigan opens No. 11 in the Associated Press poll, Florida 17).
A setback would probably push the loser down the polls, and with a second loss likely given their tough schedules, all but out of the College Football Playoff race.
The Gators seem confident, with head coach Jim McElwain and his players having done plenty of pregame chirping. Michigan appears to have some advantages, however, including an experienced quarterback and a defensive front that could be among the best in the nation.
Here are the Wolverines’ keys to winning in the opener:
Make Florida Earn Its Points: In other words, make them drive the field with sustained drives and not give up big plays. Florida State pulled out a win over Michigan last year with a handful of big plays in both the running and the passing games, and it proved enough in a one-point Orange Bowl win. Nine of their possessions were three-and-outs or turnovers early in drives, but a 92-yard touchdown pass and some big Dalvin Cook runs led to touchdowns in a 33-32 FSU win.
Florida will be without its best wide receiver in Antonio Callaway, suspended for the Michigan game, but this will still be a test for the young Michigan corners. Defensive coordinator Don Brown is not flexible in his demands of the position group. He’ll call for press man coverage 90 percent of the time, and sophomores Lavert Hill and David Long — the presumed starters — need to keep the ball in front of them.
They could get some help from a defensive line that figures to be outstanding at rushing the passer, as well, and a blitzing defense that will come from all angles. If they’re as good as advertised, the line should be able to stifle the run and force some early (or errant) throws to help protect a secondary with new starters at all four positions.
Establish A Running Game: Florida’s front is athletic, and it’s especially good at defensive end. Michigan will roll out three new starters on the offensive line, so manageable down-and-distance situations would be beneficial. The best way to do that would be to prove early they can run the ball, keeping the Gators guessing by picking up four or five yards a carry on first down.
The left side of the line seems to be in good hands with senior left tackle Mason Cole and sophomore left guard Ben Bredeson, but how will fifth-year senior center Pat Kugler, sophomore right guard Mike Onwenu, and redshirt sophomore right tackles Nolan Ulizio (presumably) and/or Jon Runyan fare in their first taste of big-time competition at their positions?
We’ll find out. Their predecessors were talented, but mental mistakes deep into some of their careers plagued them. There will always be a few missed assignments, but they need to limit them — and to strike and get a push up front — to make this offense go.
Be Solid On Special Teams: Michigan doesn’t have to be great … just solid. The Wolverines will have a new field goal kicker in redshirt freshman Quinn Nordin, a new punter (likely true freshman Brad Robbins), and a number of new players on coverage and return teams.
They’ll also have new return men, none of them named Jabrill Peppers. Sophomore Nate Johnson put a few balls on the carpet during the spring game, and the Wolverines need to avoid those against a good opponent.
This unit will continue to get better in time, and a mistake or two in the several weeks following the opener won’t be devastating. A gaffe at the wrong time or a missed field goal could be costly against the Gators, however.
The Breakdown: Most are predicting a lower-scoring game, and that seems to make sense. Both offenses are unproven with new players at many positions, and each of the defenses is athletic and capable of making it tough to move the ball.
Experience at quarterback works in Michigan’s favor. The Gators have three potential QBs, and the old saying — ‘If you have three, that means you don’t have one good one’ — might apply here. Redshirt junior Wilson Speight has been through some wars, has played injured, is experienced in some tough environments … which results in advantage, Michigan in one of the biggest areas of concern, especially with redshirt frosh Felipe Franks getting the starting nod for UF.
This Florida team will be motivated, however. This isn’t the team that quit during the 41-7 Citrus Bowl drubbing a few years ago, and there are more than enough athletes on that team to hang with Michigan.
Lon Horwedel
TheWolverine.com Staff Picks
TheWolverine.com Senior Editor Chris Balas: Michigan 23, Florida 13
Michigan still has plenty to prove up front offensively and in the secondary, but this is not vintage Florida. The Gators are missing a number of players, some of their best, and U-M will take advantage.
The Wolverine Senior Editor John Borton: Michigan 31, Florida 20
The Wolverines endure some stumbles, but then pull away.
TheWolverine.com Recruiting Editor Brandon Brown: Michigan 35, Florida 13
Michigan comes out and proves a point beating the Gators handily.
TheWolverine.com Writer Austin Fox: Michigan 28, Florida 20
Florida is going to have an incredibly difficult time moving the ball on Michigan’s defense, regardless of who plays quarterback for the Gators. On the flip side, though, I don’t expect Michigan’s offense to exactly light up the scoreboard either.
Fortunately, Michigan’s offense doesn’t have to be clicking on all cylinders to defeat the offensively challenged Gators. Michigan gets it done and moves to 4-0 all time against Florida.
TheWolverine.com Writer Andrew Vailliencourt: Michigan 27, Florida 17
Michigan will have a field day getting to Gator quarterbacks and will be steady enough on offense to grab the win.
TheWolverine.com Analyst Doug Skene: Michigan 24, Florida 20
Michigan scores a late touchdown to overcome the Gators.
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