Michigan election could see 'red mirage' with early returns showing Republicans ahead
Early election returns in Michigan could produce a so-called "red mirage" showing Republicans ahead as precincts begin reporting in-person votes while thousands of absentee ballots remain uncounted.
The results of key races in Michigan could remain unclear even as voters head to bed. And when they wake up, they could see the candidate who was ahead in early election night returns fall behind by the morning.
That's what happened in 2020 in Michigan when unofficial election night results showed then-President Donald Trump ahead of now-President Joe Biden. But the unofficial count on election night did not include thousands of absentee votes. Shortly after 9 a.m. the day after the election, Biden pulled ahead of Trump for the first time after polls closed the previous evening.
In Michigan, election officials cannot begin tabulating absentee ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Absentee ballots take longer to count than ballots cast in person. The voter signature on the absentee ballot must be verified, the ballot stub number checked and removed and the ballot flattened before it can be inserted into the tabulator.
More:You won't know full Michigan election results right away. Here's why.
Voters, meanwhile, have until 8 p.m. when the polls close to return their absentee ballots in person at their local clerk's office or via a ballot drop box. Polling locations close at that time and will begin reporting results. At the same time, election workers will fan out to collect absentee ballots from drop boxes, verify them and then send them to counting rooms. It's a process that takes time and means that absentee ballots delivered by the deadline for returning them might not delivered to the counting board responsible for processing them until several hours later.
A recent poll commissioned by the Free Press and its statewide media partners indicates a partisan divide in how voters in Michigan cast their ballot in the midterm. That could also contribute to early election returns that show Republican candidates ahead before the vote count is complete.
The poll found that Republican voters are more likely to vote in person than Democratic voters. It found that 91% of Republican voters plan to vote in person compared with 68% of Democratic voters. Only 9% of Republican voters plan to cast an absentee ballot compared with 32% of Democratic voters.
The poll conducted by Lansing-based EPIC-MRA was conducted Oct. 28 through Nov. 1 via live interviews, including 70% by cellphone. The poll surveyed 600 active and likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
The Secretary of State's Office estimates that it could take roughly 24 hours after polling locations close at 8 p.m. Tuesday to have complete unofficial election results from communities across Michigan.
More:Voter guide for Michigan election 2022: Macomb, Oakland, Wayne counties
Clara Hendrickson fact-checks Michigan issues and politics as a corps member with Report for America, an initiative of The GroundTruth Project. Make a tax-deductible contribution to support her work at bit.ly/freepRFA. Contact her at chendrickson@freepress.com or 313-296-5743. Follow her on Twitter @clarajanehen.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why election night in Michigan could show Republicans ahead
