Is Michigan basketball favored by analytics to win another game? Let’s take a look
In case you missed it, Michigan basketball is imploding. It’s actually somehow kind of impressive.
15 times in 2023-24, the Wolverines have had a halftime lead only to lose. After letting Rutgers go on an 18-2 run to end the game and overcome a 12-point deficit relatively late in the game this past Saturday, Michigan is now 7-15 on the season and 2-9 in the Big Ten.
Which leads us to the question: can Michigan basketball win another game this season? Will it?
Using ESPN FPI, we take a look at each of the remaining nine games in the 2023-24 season and the chances that the maize and blue have to getting another W at any point this year.
Feb. 7: 6 Wisconsin Badgers
Chances of winning: 21.7%
Wisconsin is coming off a loss and is three of the last five. However, the Badgers are 8-3 in the Big Ten and ranked among the top teams in the nation.
Feb. 10: at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Chances of winning: 19.4%
Once upon a time, a bad Michigan basketball team playing Nebraska would be the elixir that cures all ills, but the Huskers are 16-6 on the season and playing a lot better under head coach Fred Hoiberg.
Feb. 14: at 14 Illinois Fighting Illini
Chances of winning: 6.2%
Juwan Howard has yet to beat Illinois in his tenure as the Michigan basketball head coach. It seems unlikely that playing a ranked Illini team on the road will suddenly turn things around.
Feb. 17: Michigan State Spartans
Chances of winning: 22.8%
The Wolverines collapsed in the second half in East Lansing last week, so could there be something to a rivalry game at home?
Feb. 22: at Northwestern Wildcats
Chances of winning: 18.4%
15-7 on the season and generally tough, Northwestern has been good this season, and unlikely to be a bounce-back game if the Wolverines don’t have any wins previous to this one.
Feb. 25: 2 Purdue Boilermakers
Chances of winning: 8.5%
The best team left on the schedule and the final ranked team, if Michigan pulls off the upset, it would be a huge moral victory. At least it’s a home game?
Feb. 29: at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Chances of winning: 30.8%
This is probably Michigan’s best chance to win another game. But we just saw Michigan play the second-worst team in Rutgers on Saturday and after an 18-2 run to finish the game, the Scarlet Knights appear to be in another category.
Mar. 3: at Ohio State Buckeyes
Chances of winning: 22%
The last team that Michigan basketball beat happens to be the rival Buckeyes. This is on their home court, but Ohio State appears to have similar issues and cannot seem to beat the Wolverines in any sport at the moment.
Mar. 10: Nebraska Cornhuskers
Chances of winning: 49.7%
The second time in the next month-plus that Michigan will face Nebraska, this time ending the regular season. It’s the best statistical chance the Wolverines have and it’s senior day.
