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Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders: Who has the edge?

david furones, south florida sun-sentinel
·5 min read

Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (8-3) and Washington Commanders (4-8) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday’s Week 13 game at FedEx Field (1 p.m., Fox):

When the Dolphins run: Rookie running back De’Von Achane’s status could once again come down to game day, but whether he’s in or out, the Dolphins are coming off an impressive performance on the ground in last Friday’s win over the New York Jets. Raheem Mostert had 94 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries. Jeff Wilson Jr. went for 56 yards on 11 rushing attempts.

The Miami offensive line has paved the way through all kinds of shuffling. The unit entered the game at the Meadowlands with two starting guards out, and then they lost two tackles — Terron Armstead due to a quadriceps injury and Austin Jackson to ejection — during the game. Armstead is working to get back in the lineup, but Kendall Lamm could also start at left tackle and push through his bad back. Robert Hunt would provide a boost at right guard if he can return to the starting lineup and overcome his hamstring injury after he was active against the Jets but didn’t play.

Against the Dolphins’ No. 2 run game, the Commanders have an average 17th-ranked run defense. They do possess a strong defensive tackle combo in Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, and safety Kamren Curl is good in run support, leading the team with 93 tackles. Edge: Dolphins

When the Commanders run: Brian Robinson Jr. is a 6-foot-2, 228-pound power back that is the bell-cow for the Washington run game. He is averaging 4 yards per carry with 611 yards on the season. Right tackle Andrew Wylie is one to watch with his power run-blocking. The Commanders’ run game is 25th in the league.

The Dolphins’ run defense is ranked sixth in the league and has been consistent since the poor effort in the opener. Led by Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler up front, it has consistently bottled up opposing run games, making offenses one-dimensional late in games once the Dolphins are playing with a lead. Since the bye week, Miami has allowed just 36 rushing yards to Josh Jacobs and the Las Vegas Raiders and 29 to Breece Hall and the Jets. Edge: Dolphins

When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has hit a bit of a midseason lull, but he’s still leading the NFL’s top passing attack. Individually, he’s fourth in passing yards (3,177) and passer rating (103.7), third in passing touchdowns (22) and second in yards per attempt (8.4). But it’s the turnovers for him right now. He has 10 interceptions on the season after two more before halftime against the Jets and four fumbles lost with one more on a handoff exchange last game.

Nonetheless, he’s getting the ball to his top targets. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle had 100-yard receiving games against New York, accounting for 216 of Tagovailoa’s 243 passing yards. Hill continues to be on pace for the NFL’s first 2,000-yard season, at 1,324 through 11 games. They’ll see a lot of Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St. Juste at cornerback, along with Curl at safety in the NFL’s 30th-ranked pass defense.

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The Commanders, who recently fired defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, have a pass rush that took a hit at the trade deadline when edge rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat were traded to the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears, respectively. They still have Allen and Payne on the interior and Casey Toohill on the edge. Even if Miami continues to shuffle on the offensive line, expect the Dolphins to be able to hold up against Washington pressure. Edge: Dolphins

When the Commanders pass: Washington has the league’s No. 9 passing offense, but it takes the Commanders throwing the ball more than any other team for them to be that high. Quarterback Sam Howell has thrown 18 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and is throwing for 6.9 yards per attempt.

Howell has been sacked a league-leading 55 times, so expect the Dolphins pass rush, which has been on fire coming off a seven-sack performance, to keep it going. Outside linebacker Bradley Chubb will draw the matchup against left tackle Charles Leno Jr., and with Jaelan Phillips’ season done after his Achilles tear, Andrew Van Ginkel should go against Wylie on the other side. Wilkins has a career-high 6 1/2 sacks with the interior pressure, and Emmanuel Ogbah can also expect some more opportunities working in with Van Ginkel, along with the newly signed Jason Pierre-Paul.

The Dolphins secondary has been elite since Jalen Ramsey came into the fold. He’s opposite Xavien Howard, and Jevon Holland has been holding down the back end — and even scoring goal line to goal line, like on the Jets’ Hail Mary before halftime returned for a touchdown. Terry McLaurin is a legitimate receiving threat that has to be accounted for as he leads the team with 60 receptions for 694 yards. Howell also spreads the ball out to fellow receivers Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson and tight end Logan Thomas. Edge: Dolphins

Special teams: Jason Sanders has hit from 50-plus yards in back-to-back games, although his make against the Raiders came after a long miss. Commanders kicker Joey Slye is 17 of 21 on field goals and has missed two extra points. The teams’ punting games are about equal. Edge: Even

Intangibles: Washington’s in shambles and probably firing coach Ron Rivera by season’s end, while Del Rio was already let go following the Thanksgiving loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Miami is rolling, and it shouldn’t matter too much that this game is played at FedEx Field. The Dolphins have a chance to clinch the division by Week 15 if they win their next three games against the Commanders, Titans and Jets, if the Buffalo Bills just lose to the Chiefs in Kansas City two weeks from now. They won’t mess around with this opportunity. Edge: Dolphins

PREDICTION: Dolphins 31, Commanders 13