New Mexico vs. Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
New Mexico vs. Fresno State: Game Preview, How To Watch, Odds, Prediction
Lobos looking for an upset win
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New Mexico will have its work cut out
WEEK 7: New Mexico (2-5) vs. Fresno State (2-4)
WHEN: Saturday, October 22, 2022
TIME: 6:30 PM ET, 4:30 PM MST
WHERE: University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
WEATHER: 76° High & Low in evening 52 ° partly cloudy
TV: Fox Sports 2
LIVE STREAM: FUBO TV (free trial)
RADIO: Lobo Radio Network
ANALYST: Robert Portnoy (play-by-play) & DonTrell Moore (Color)
SERIES RECORD: Bulldogs lead the series 14-5
LAST WEEK: Lobos lost to NMSU 21-9; Bulldogs won 17-10 against San Jose St
WEBSITES: golobos.com | gobulldogs.com
GAME NOTES (PDF): New Mexico I Fresno State
ODDS: Lobos (+10.5)
SP+ PROJECTION: Fresno State by 11.2
FEI PROJECTION: Fresno State by 10.5
OVER/UNDER: 40.5 points
The Fresno State Bulldogs (2-4) play on Saturday at 6:30 PM ET against the New Mexico Lobos (2-5) at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Jeff Tedford‘s Fresno State Bulldogs head into Albuquerque on Saturday to take on Danny Gonzales UNM Lobos for a battle on the gridiron at University Stadium.
The Bulldogs come into this game with a record of 2-4 for this year, and last week Bulldogs took the field against the San Jose State Spartans and came away with a victory by a final score of 17-10.
The Lobos head into this game 2-5 for this season, and last week the Lobos took a defeat with a final score of 21-9 when they faced their interstate rivalry, the New Mexico State Aggies.
This week, the Lobos are sitting at 2-5 overall and 0-3 in the Mountain West. The goal is to win their first Conference against the 2-4 Bulldogs.
This will be the Lobos homecoming game with all the festivities that that brings, and UNM will honor cancer survivors in the annual Lobos Love Pink game.
This Lobo football team has lost four games in a row, the last three in excruciating fashion, as these were very winnable games.
It’s been a gut-wrenching season the last few weeks for Lobo fans, seeing a team that has been so solid on defense struggle on the offensive side of the ball.
UNM Lost 17-0 and 14-0, leading to both UNLV and Wyoming losing 31-20 and 27-14, and last week the Lobo offense controlled the clock limiting the Aggies to 200 yards and just ten first downs.
But some very costly penalties at just the wrong time and drives ending in field goals instead of touchdowns would cost the Lobos the game.
The Bulldogs just ended a four-game losing streak by beating one of the hottest teams in the Mountain West Conference, the San Jose State Spartans, in a 17-10 victory to win the Valley Trophy.
They did this without the Mountain West top Quarterback Jake Haener who is still out injured; this occurred against USC Saturday, September 17.
The win against San Jose State puts the Bulldogs at 2-4 and tied with San Diego State and Hawaii, but San Jose State with just one conference loss.
So they come into the game against the Lobos with post-season goals, including a potential berth in the Mountain West title game six weeks from now.
Despite their record, they have tons of athletic talent on both sides of the ball so the Lobos will have their hands full at home against these Bulldogs.
Fresno State still has the weapons that have always made it a tough Mountain West matchup, and this has proven to be true in the history of the Lobos and Bulldogs games on the gridiron.
For this Lobo team to succeed, they will need to overcome a few more injuries and get some takeaways. The Lobos have started 42 players this season, the most in the FBS.
Three Keys to a Lobo Victory
— Score Touchdowns!
he Lobos are currently sitting 121st in the country, averaging 17.9 PPG. The They have compiled 864 passing yards and an average of 123.4 passing yards per contest, ranking them 124th in the nation.
The New Mexico Lobos average 261.0 yards per game, ranking them 127th in the country. The New Mexico offense has totaled 425 yards of penalties on 51 infractions, ranking them 15th in the country in terms of hurting your team.
Coach Danny Gonzales made staff adjustments in relieving Coach Derek Warehime of his duties and hired QB Coach Heath Ridenhour as the interim Offensive Coordinator.
Ridenhour was one of the most successful high school head coaches at Cleveland High School in Rio Rancho, New Mexico.
The Cleveland Storm was not only state Champions under his watch, but many of his teams averaged over 40 points a game.
Ridenhour, who happens to be from Brian Urlacher‘s country, is from Lovington, New Mexico, and a close friend of Urlacher growing up in high school.
He had a reputation for being a great play caller and was known for being able to adjust and have a plan behind the plan with Defensive Coordinators.
That said, the same offense remains and only so much can be done in the middle of the season when he would have time to install his offense and his wrinkle on the Lobos.
Last week against the NMSU Aggies, Lobo QB Miles Kendrick threw for 160 yards for the Lobos against the Aggies, going 19-for-30 (63.3%) with no touchdowns and one interception.
Christian Washington carried the ball 14 times for 64 yards (4.6 yards per attempt). In the passing game, he added nine catches for 48 yards.
Wide Receiver Luke Wysong recorded five catches for 75 yards (on nine targets); the Lobos were without one of their most explosive wide receivers Gordon Porter, the ASU transfer who was out on account of a heel injury he has been dealing with.
The Lobo offensive line will have their hands full with David Perales, who was named the Mountain West Defensive Player of the Week following a career-high four sacks and five tackles for loss against San Jose State.
They must be aware of where he is at when they run their offense, or it could be a long night for quarterback Miles Kendrick.
This Lobo offense must find a way to protect their quarterback during dropbacks and give him time to able to get the ball into the hands of their player makers.
Also, the offensive line must be physical at the line of scrimmage as the Bulldogs will be very physical, and if the holes are there, give the ball to Christian Washinton, Nate Jones, and Sherod White.
— Lights out Lobo Defense
The Lobo Defense has been a source of inspiration for this Lobo team. The grit, tenacity, and flying to the ball are hallmarks of all Rocky Long, now Danny Gonzales’s defensive teams.
New Mexico has allowed opposing teams 802 yards rushing (114.6 yards per game) and eight touchdowns via the rush so far this year and only allowed eight touchdowns via the pass and 215.0 yards per game, which has them ranked 48th in the FBS.
This Lobo defense is surrendering 22.6 points per game, which puts them 42nd in Division 1. This year, they have given up 158 total points.
They can either be facing the return of starting quarterback Jake Haener who suffered an ankle injury during the game at USC on September 17.
Right now, it looks like Logan Fife will be the starting quarterback (his fourth straight start) for the Bulldogs on the road against the Lobos in Albuquerque this Saturday.
Fife went 22/32 with 230 yds through the air and 1 TD. He had a QB rating of 133.2 and finished the game with one interception.
Jordan Mims was the best rusher for the Bulldogs with 16 carries for 71 yds (4.4 yards per carry). The Fresno State Bulldogs ran the football 36 times and amassed 104 yards, earning them an average of 2.9 yds per attempt.
Wide Receiver Nikko Remigio had 54 yards on six catches (9.0 per reception) with one touchdown in that game.
An enormous challenge for the Lobos will be Jalen Moreno-Cropper and Jodan Mims, one of the top receiver-running backs combos in the MWC and the FBS.
While UNM is still top 10 nationally in takeaways with 13, they have zero in the last two games, and UNM hasn’t won a game without a takeaway since October 15, 2015, so the defense needs to return to the form of the first five games.
This Lobo defense must get back to takeaways from the opposing teams they play and pressure on the quarterbacks or sacks.
Bulldog head coach Jeff Tedford sees another challenge from a defense led by Rocky Long, a unit currently ranked fourth in the Mountain West.
“For years, every time you play this scheme, Rocky’s scheme, you run up against the same stuff,” Tedford said of the Lobo defense. “It’s very similar to playing against Air Force and the option to try and simulate the option in practice. You cannot do it the way they do it.”
— Play Mentally Smart Football
Some of the frustration of the lack of offensive production can spill over to the special teams, the defense on personal fouls, and an overall lack of staying in the game mentally.
You saw this last week when a defensive tackle pushed an Aggie out of bounds on a crucial third downplay, and the Lobos were close to getting good field position to score, only to see the Aggies score two plays after this penalty. Ouch!
A few plays before, that was another penalty by a tight end for the Lobos, and, sure enough, it was a crucial time for them to get back in the game as well.
These kinds of penalties are killers in football games. The players must mentally know down and distance and not allow their emotions to get the best of them to affect the game’s outcome.
This happens on all levels of football. After all, we are dealing with young men in a very emotional and violent impact sport such as football.
A good indicator is that many of these penalties happen in the heat of the game and in the second half when players’ frustrations start to show.
It’s as if they compound and become more and more costly to a team’s effort to get back in the game when behind the opponent.
The reality is when you are not the most talented, in Lobo’s case, it’s more youth than talent (8th youngest FBS team). A team must make up the youth/talent gap by playing disciplined and intelligent & smart football for them to have a chance to compete and win against good teams!
Prediction
New Mexico 34 Fresno State 24
