Mets 2023 trade deadline predictions: Who stays, goes and where they'll end up
The unfortunate reality is here. The Mets need to sell at the trade deadline.
It started late Thursday night, with the team dealing David Robertson to the Miami Marlins in exchange for two prospects.
New York spending more on a team than ever before in baseball history and having to have this conversation is certainly beyond disappointing. Unfortunately, sometimes you just need to not be stubborn and face reality.
Once the Mets lost two out of three to the Red Sox, to me that was it. Once they did not sweep the Yankees, that should certainly have been it. At bare minimum to get the third Wild Card spot, you must target 87 wins (and that could potentially not even be enough). Hope is not a strategy.
With that said, the Mets are not, and should not be entering any kind of a rebuild. This should be a moderate-level sale. This is about adding to the farm system and retooling to try this again in 2024. One factor that needs to be considered at the deadline is wanting to give a potential President of Baseball Operations (maybe David Stearns?) the right to evaluate players under control beyond 2023, if he were to take this job after the season concludes. At the same time, it would be smart to listen and see what could come back for certain pieces.
Some of the returns could be elevated with the Mets' willingness to eat salaries in trades as they did when they traded Eduardo Escobar to the Angels. Contenders love to add talent at the deadline, but contenders really love to add talent that also does not impact their payroll.
Below is a primer on what to expect over the next few days as we lead into the Aug. 1 trade deadline. We'll see how my predictions do...
RENTALS
TOMMY PHAM
Pham has a chance to be one of the better available right-handed bats. Pham has a .813 OPS and plays an average left field. Analytically driven teams will be very into Pham. He is in the 96thpercentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in max exit velocity and 94th percentile in chase rate. He has not chased much, and he hits the ball as hard as almost anyone in baseball. The Phillies, Dodgers and Guardians all seem like fits for Pham. I suspect they can get a prospect within an organization’s top 15 for a guy whom they signed to a one-year $6 million deal this past offseason to be a fourth outfielder.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
CARLOS CARRASCO
Carrasco has been very uneven this season. He struggled mightily before his extended IL trip and since has had some good outings and some poor ones. There is always a need for starting pitching depth. Teams like the Orioles and the Reds look to me as possible fits for Carrasco. They are smaller market teams with deeper farm systems that can afford to trade a lottery ticket-type prospect for Carrasco.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
UNDER CONTROL BEYOND 2023
MARK CANHA
PREDICTION: I almost consider Canha a rental, as I don’t believe the Mets or an acquiring team would pick up an $11.5 million team option on him for 2024. However, he is a fit for teams looking for a veteran leader-type presence who can play all three outfield spots, and when he is at his best can be an average regular with plus on-base skills. The Phillies, Guardians, Dodgers and Mariners have all been teams linked to Canha. He feels very reminiscent of the Escobar trade, where the Mets ate the remaining salary and got a prospect who could fit inside their top 20, and another inside their top 30.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
Many in baseball are weary to trade with the Rays, as they generally know when to sell. However, Raley has been great for the Mets with a 2.50 ERA in 44 games. He also has one more arbitration year remaining which gives him additional value in trade. I imagine much like Robertson, a lot of contenders would have interest here. I personally would not and don’t believe Raley will be moved. The Mets need bullpen arms for 2024, and Raley can be a high leverage guy for them next year.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
Ottavino has not been as good in 2023 as he was in a great 2022 in Queens. He has a $7 million player option for 2024 that I imagine he would exercise. The question is are there teams in the market prepared to pay the soon-to-be 38-year-old Ottavino $7 million next year? I would not give him away, but if a contender with a current bullpen need and 2024 payroll flexibility had interest, I think I could replace Ottavino in free agency this offseason.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
OMAR NARVAEZ
With the emergence of Francisco Álvarez, the Mets must consider if paying $7 million next year to Narváez on a player option to be a backup is good value when they have Tomás Nido in Triple-A and could also acquire a different catcher in the offseason at a lower price point. Catching is scarce in baseball and that could lead to getting a moderately interesting return for Narváez, who could be the long side of a platoon behind the plate. The Yankees and Twins are two teams that stand out as possible options.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
SNY’s Andy Martino has reported that teams have been scouting Quintana since his rehab outings and also in his first two starts with the Mets. Quintana has $13 million guaranteed in 2024, which is a very reasonable number for a back-end starter. The Mets need more starting pitching, not less, so I would need a good return to move Quintana. In his last three full seasons as a starter, Quintana has made 32, 31 and 32 starts. He has been durable for his whole career, and I think the Mets need someone like that in 2024.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
POSSIBLE, BUT UNLIKELY TO MOVE
MAX SCHERZER & JUSTIN VERLANDER
I figure we can lump these two together. Do I think the Mets should listen if a team were to call on one of them? Absolutely. But I do not believe they would get a return that would warrant everything that comes along with trading one of the two veterans. First off, they both have full no trade clauses, which is probably the least of the concerns, but nonetheless is a factor.
Both Scherzer (player option) and Verlander (guaranteed year) are due roughly $14 million for the rest of the season and $43.3 million in 2024. Also, as I noted above, the Mets need more starters in 2024, not less. In the case of Scherzer, given it is not guaranteed money in 2024, the Mets could not absorb theoretical dollars next year if they wanted to with Scherzer. They could, however, absorb money on Verlander’s 2024 salary.
The questions would be: How much money has to be absorbed and what is the return? If you operate as if they will absorb all of 2023, and a good chunk of 2024, that return better be very strong. If the Mets are essentially buying prospects, it better be a darn good one if you are hypothetically paying $30 million or more to not have Verlander on the team and then on top of that, you have to replace him in the rotation.
It simply doesn’t add up to me. There are too many complications here, and it is another scenario where you can re-visit in the offseason if there is a president of baseball ops and then maybe more teams could be in as they attempt to contend in 2024.
I expect you will see some activity from the Mets over the coming days, and heck, I would not be against buying a controllable reliever if the right one is available while also selling. At bare minimum, they should look to move the rentals that I listed above, plus Canha. At maximum, GM Billy Eppler could be creative with some players under control beyond this year or perhaps shock by finding the right fit to move one of Verlander or Scherzer. The focus for the Mets, unfortunately, needs to shift to 2024.
WHAT HAPPENED: TBD
