Memphis football vs Tulane: Scouting report, score prediction vs Michael Pratt, AAC champion

It's the biggest game of the year for Memphis football.

The Tigers will welcome defending AAC champions Tulane to Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium on Friday (6 p.m., ESPN) with a chance to announce themselves as legitimate contenders for the conference championship. Tulane won the AAC title and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last season and entered this year as the AAC favorites.

But Memphis (4-1, 1-0 ACC) has a chance to upset the apple cart on Friday. A win would set the Tigers (4-1, 1-0) up as favorites in the AAC heading into the second half of the season and create real chatter about New Year's Six bowl possibilities. A loss would leave the Tigers with a mountain to climb to get to the conference title game.

Both teams are coming off open weeks.

Here's a scouting report and a prediction.

The Green Wave go as Michael Pratt does

Tulane's remarkable 2022 — two wins in 2021 to 12 wins in 2022, the biggest turnaround in college football history — didn't just happen because of one player. There was running back Tyjae Spears, who ran for 1,581 yards in 2022 and who is now a rookie with the Tennessee Titans.

But there was also quarterback Michael Pratt, who threw for over 3,000 yards in 2022 and is back for his fourth season.

"I watch other teams that play him," Memphis defensive coordinator Matt Barnes said. "And when they've got guys that are covered, he throws them open. He's an NFL type quarterback. Sometimes you play a guy that can find guys that are open, but has a little bit of hesitancy about throwing to a guy that's a little bit covered. This guy, he'll throw to a covered receiver and just find the right window. He's like (Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan) in that way. He's an NFL style quarterback."

Pratt was injured earlier this season but has played in the last two games. He's getting NFL Draft buzz and is considered one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Why is this game so important?

First off, it's a chance for Memphis to test itself against the best team in the AAC. The Tigers have played better competition over the past few games, traveling to St. Louis for a close loss against Missouri and then coming from behind to beat Boise State at home. Those were essentially non-conference tune-up fights for this critical matchup.

Memphis has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way — at UAB, at North Texas, vs. South Florida, at Charlotte, vs. SMU, at Temple — and a win Friday would put the Tigers a game ahead of Tulane with the tiebreaker.

SMU has an easy schedule and could be undefeated in conference play when the Mustangs visit Memphis on Nov. 18, so the Tigers would probably need to win out if they lose Friday to get to the AAC title game.

Tulane's schedule after Friday? North Texas, at Rice, at East Carolina, vs. Tulsa, at Florida Atlantic, vs. UTSA.

Something's gotta give in the run game

Memphis running back Blake Watson leads the AAC in yards by a running back (South Florida QB Byrum Brown is the conference's leading rusher overall). Watson, a transfer from Old Dominion, has stepped in to Memphis' offense and played a major role from day one.

He's rushed for 455 yards and six touchdowns so far this season, including 100-plus yard performances in two of his last three games. He's also been a dynamic weapon as a pass-catcher, with 26 receptions for 233 yards and a touchdown.

But Tulane comes in with the conference's top rush defense. The Green Wave are allowing just 86.2 yards per game on the ground. The Tulane defense is also first in the conference in points allowed per game.

Watson, quarterback Seth Henigan and the rest of the Memphis offense will have their hands full with this defense.

How important is home-field advantage?

Memphis and Tulane have played every year since 2014. And the home team has won every matchup since 2016, when Memphis won in New Orleans.

Still, Memphis opened as a three-point underdog and climbed to 4.5-point underdogs by Wednesday.

In particular, Tulane has had a rough time in Memphis for almost 25 years. The Green Wave last beat Memphis at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in 1998, then returned later that season for a Liberty Bowl win over BYU.

Last year, Tulane jumped out to a 35-0 halftime lead and held on for an eventual 38-28 win in New Orleans.

More: What Memphis football is emphasizing before playing Tulane and its 'NFL-style' QB

Memphis-Tulane score prediction

Memphis 41, Tulane 38. It feels like we're set up for a wild game one way or the other. Memphis jumps out to a fast start and rides the home crowd to what would be Ryan Silverfield's biggest win as Tigers head coach.

Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @thejonahdylan.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis football vs Tulane: Scouting report, score prediction