Memphis football vs Missouri score prediction, scouting report: Tigers battle in St Louis

Memphis football was a big favorite for each of its first three games this season. And the Tigers are 3-0.

But that changes Saturday (6:30 p.m., ESPNU) in St. Louis, as Memphis enters the matchup with Missouri (3-0) as an underdog. The game represents a chance for Memphis to earn a victory over an SEC team and pick up momentum heading into a two-game home stretch against Boise State and Tulane.

Missouri is coming into St. Louis with confidence, fresh off a last-second win over then-No. 15 Kansas State on a 61-yard field goal from Harrison Mevis as time expired.

The winner of Saturday's game is likely to earn a ranking in next week's AP poll. Here's your primer for the Tigers vs. Tigers matchup.

Missouri field goal range? Maybe across the Mississippi

Missouri was locked in a back-and-forth battle with Kansas State for much of last week's game in Columbia. Quarterback Brady Cook led his team down the field during the two-minute drill, hoping to get into range for a game-winning field goal.

A critical delay of game penalty pushed the attempt from 56 yards to 61 yards, but Mevis still connected — bringing a euphoric sellout crowd onto the field.

Mevis was 3-for-4 on the day but is just 4-for-7 on his field goal attempts this season. But keep his 61-yarder in mind if Missouri needs to drive down the field for a late-game score.

Why is Memphis-Missouri game being played in St. Louis?

Memphis and Missouri signed a home-and-home agreement in 2010. The first game took place in Columbia in 2018, when Missouri crushed Memphis 65-33. The return game in Memphis was supposed to take place at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium in 2023. But Missouri expressed interest in buying out of the agreement, and the schools went back to the negotiating table.

Those negotiations led to the new agreement — this game in St. Louis, a neutral site in theory but also one that will clearly be more palatable for Missouri fans. Memphis was not exactly thrilled about the way things worked out.

"To be clear, we are very disappointed that this game could not be played in Memphis," Memphis athletic director Laird Veatch said when the announcement was made last year. "However, once we were made aware that would no longer be an option, we explored every possible alternative. In the end, rescheduling the game with Missouri in St. Louis was the best remaining option for our football program."

Said Memphis coach Ryan Silverfield this week: "They refused to play us at our place, so we're going to have to go make it a home-field advantage in St. Louis."

Know where Luther Burden III is at all times

Missouri has weapons all over the field, but it's clear to everyone that wide receiver Luther Burden III is the standout player. A five-star recruit out of high school, Burden chose Missouri over offers from basically everywhere.

He played as a freshman last year but has seen an expanded role this season. He caught seven passes for 114 yards with two touchdowns against Kansas State and figures to be a major part of the game plan this weekend.

"He's dynamite," Silverfield said.

Both Silverfield and defensive coordinator Matt Barnes said the emphasis is on containing Burden and limiting explosive plays. Tackling was a serious problem for Memphis against Navy, and improving that will be critical in trying to defend Burden.

Will Missouri quarterback Brady Cook play?

Missouri quarterback Brady Cook was injured during the second quarter of the Kansas State game, suffering what coach Eli Drinkwitz called a hyperextended knee. He missed practice Tuesday and is "day to day," Drinkwitz said.

Silverfield said Monday that Memphis was preparing for Cook to play, but also noted that Missouri has capable backups and Memphis would have to be ready for them to play as well. Sam Horn replaced Cook for two plays during Saturday's game and would likely be the starter if Cook can't go.

Even though he was battling through injury, Cook had a big game against the Wildcats. He was 23-of-35, passing for 356 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing touchdown.

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How will the Memphis defense respond after being tested?

Memphis' defense had been cruising after two games — the Tigers were the only FBS team not to allow a touchdown on defense through two weeks and Memphis was second in total yards allowed among FBS teams.

But that changed against the Midshipmen, who ran through arm-tackles and missed assignments to put up 432 yards and give Memphis a scare down the stretch.

Barnes said Tuesday that Memphis had to face adversity and came through it, which gives the defense plenty of things to clean up but should also give them confidence going into Saturday's game.

"We knew we weren't going to go the whole season without letting up a touchdown," he said. "We certainly didn't execute the way we wanted to, particularly in the first half. But defense won the game in the fourth quarter. So we're very pleased with the way we played down the stretch. We knuckled up when we had to knuckle up."

Memphis-Missouri score prediction

Missouri 28, Memphis 20. The Memphis defense makes things difficult for Missouri's offense, but Memphis struggles in the trenches and falls just short of pulling off the upset in St. Louis.

Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @thejonahdylan.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis score prediction vs. Missouri: College football Week 4