McCarthy vs 1st-and-10 among 3 key matchups in Cowboys-Chargers
The Cowboys can’t turn the page fast enough after Week 5’s massacre and Monday Night Football against the Chargers gives them a chance to save a little face before heading into the bye week and recalibrate their strategies.
Winning the final Week 6 contests takes them to a record of 4-2 and in great position for a playoff run. Losing evens them at 3-3 and sends them on a completely different course heading into the meat of their schedule. As always, there are key players and matchups which should influence the game more than others.
As was pointed out earlier this week, Dak Prescott has never lost back-to-back road games before, so chances are he’ll bounce back in a big way.
With Kellen Moore leading the offense in Los Angeles, it will be a battle of play-callers on Monday night. McCarthy sent Moore packing just months ago so he could do things his way in Dallas. Needless to say, things haven’t gone great for McCarthy and now Moore gets an opportunity to show Cowboys fans the grass isn’t always greener.
Dan Quinn also factors big into the equation since he’ll be leading the Cowboys defense against Moore. Quinn didn’t fare well against his former coordinator when Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers embarrassed him last week. Like Shanahan, Moore also has intimate knowledge of Quinn’s defense.
An argument can be made the key matchups in Week 6 will be between coaches, but what fun is that? Instead let’s look at some of the matchups on the field and see what could determine the game.
Key Matchup No. 1: WR CeeDee Lamb vs NCB Ja’Sir Taylor
It’s been a week to forget for the Cowboys’ top wide receiver. After being held to just four receptions for 49 yards, Lamb was visibly upset during and after the game on Sunday night.
Playing in what is essentially a contract year, Lamb was hoping to light the league on fire. Instead, he’s found himself stuck in an offense that’s stuck in the past.
Criticism has been brutal and unrelenting this week for McCarthy and having his No. 1 WR mad at his usage isn’t making things easier on him. Look for McCarthy to feed the ball early and often to Lamb as the Cowboys lean on their playmakers to bounce back.
Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb on if Sunday night's loss to the 49ers was the most frustrated he's been since being with the Cowboys: "Absolutely. Obviously I had time to self reflect. I mean, I didn't go the best route to get my end result. But at the end of the day, I do have a job to… pic.twitter.com/3aMyzByoAI
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) October 13, 2023
Playing the bulk of his snaps in the slot, Lamb is unlikely to draw Asante Samuel often as a defender. Since Samuel usually sticks to the boundary, it’s Taylor, the primary nickel CB, who will get matched-up with Lamb.
Just last week the 49ers effectively shut the Dallas WR corps down with strong man coverage. The Chargers, who typically play a lot of zone defense, may be tempted to try the same thing on Monday night.
Los Angeles ranks just 26th in the NFL in EPA allowed per drop back. Opportunities should be there for Lamb and the Cowboys passing attack to right their ship.
A big day for Lamb could quiet the storm brewing and tip the game in Dallas’ favor.
On the other hand, shutting Lamb down could add fuel to his fire of discontent. It could smother the Cowboys offense and once again shift all the burden of winning onto the defense.
Key matchup No. 2: Damone Clark vs Austin Ekeler
When the Cowboys lost Leighton Vander Esch to his latest neck injury, they lost their last true proven LB.
A unit that started the season thin, now stands nearly translucent. Previous holes were covered by converting safety Markquese Bell to the LB position. Out of sheer necessity, it’s expected much of Vander Esch’s slack will be picked up by another safety, Jayron Kearse.
The Cowboys scrambled over the week to add Rashaan Evans, a veteran free agent LB, to the roster. But according to Stephen Jones, “It may take a week or so before he’s ready to go.”
The LB position plays a critical role in both phases of the game. Occupying the second layer of Dallas’ defense they are also the assurance their defense can match up against bigger personnel packages.
The Chargers have likely taken note of the Cowboys issues and rightfully expect the safety room to help cover the absence. The obvious response will be more packages that feature two tight ends. The Chargers are currently third in the NFL in 12 personnel usage on first downs so the Cowboys can expect a heavy dose.
The return of running back Austin Ekeler makes this even more dire.
Don’t sleep on Ekeler’s return to the Chargers. He’s averaging a ridiculous 2.35 RYOE to the running game and should be a key part of their attack pic.twitter.com/AjJQsOyUxh
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) October 14, 2023
Ekeler is a gamebreaker in every sense and the Cowboys should expect heavy doses of him in both phases of the game. 5-foot-10, 200-pounds, Ekeler is someone who can take over a game and is one of the most value-added RBs in the NFL.
Rushing yards over expected measures what the ball carrier adds to a certain play beyond what is provided by his blockers. For context, Tony Pollard currently ranks No. 17 in RYOE with 0.20 per play. Ekeler? He’s averaging a cool 2.35 which would qualify for tops in the NFL if he had enough carries to qualify for league rankings.
Damone Clark will be looked to heavily after the loss of LVE to IR.
I asked him how ready is he and the #Cowboys defense to get back onto the field after what happened in SF:
“The only way to get the bad taste out of our mouths is to go kick somebody else’s ass.”
— Patrik [No C] Walker (@VoiceOfTheStar) October 12, 2023
Stopping Ekeler will take a team effort, but the Cowboys desperately need Clark, their last true starting LB, to lead the charge. He’s the most physically equipped and in the best position to stonewall a potentially game-breaking advance.
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Key matchup No. 3: Mike McCarthy vs 1st-and-10
The Cowboys are losing the early down battle in 2023. While McCarthy may be embracing the passing game more in these situations, his use of the quick game is seemingly cancelling it out.
Short passes delivered quickly is a great way to make up for poor pass protection and limit turnovers, but it’s a poor way to gain yards and move the chains. In a great write-up by Steven Ruiz at The Ringer, he details all the failures of McCarthy’s play design.
McCarthy’s attack is transparent and toothless. Defenses know what’s coming because there’s no creativity or attempt as disguise.
Of the completed passes on early downs, over 35 percent have been deemed “unsuccessful” because they’ve been so short, they’ve produced a negative EPA. In other words, the Cowboys were in better shape before the completed pass than they were after it.
Averaging just 6.6 yards per target downfield overall, Dallas is conservative to a fault. Play design isn’t setting up pass catchers for run after the catch and completed passes are ending in failure. Even play-action has failed this season, which is abnormal for Dak Prescott and is a clear indictment on play design.
If the Cowboys want to get their offense back on track, they have to fix early downs. And that falls on McCarthy and his playcalling.
First down, particularly, offers huge gains against the Chargers. Los Angeles is the worst first down defense in the NFL, giving up an average of 7.09 yards per play. They aren’t a defense to dink and dunk but rather someone to take shots on.
This is a chance for McCarthy to expand his playbook and try something new. It could be the difference in the game, and it could set them on a path that would save their season.
