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May madness? Picking the first round of Denny Hamlin's proposed head-to-head NASCAR tournament at Dover

ryan pritt, the daytona beach news-journal
·8 min read
8

Denny Hamlin’s idea, should it ever come to fruition, would be like Christmas in July for NASCAR fans.

Or, March in May. And the last day of April, to be exact.

Confused? Let’s explain.

This week on his podcast, Actions Detrimental with Denny Hamlin, Hamlin proposed the idea of a single-elimination, 32-driver, midseason tournament to drive up interest and ratings in NASCAR's summer months.

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We liked Denny Hamlin's idea of a mid-summer, five-week, single-elimination tournament so much that we built the bracket and picked this week's first round at Dover.
We liked Denny Hamlin's idea of a mid-summer, five-week, single-elimination tournament so much that we built the bracket and picked this week's first round at Dover.

As he explained, the competition would play out over the course of five weeks, beginning after the 10th race of the season, which occurred at Talladega on Sunday. At that point, drivers would be seeded in a March Madness-style bracket, 1-through-32 by the points standings.

Head-to-head matchups would then ensue with winners advancing to the following week and so on and so forth until just one wheelman was left standing.

If there’s anything we love here more here than filling out a tournament bracket, it’s making predictions that reveal just how little we know. So, while Hamlin’s proposal lives only on the web, we figured, "Hey, why not play this thing out?"

That’s right, we’re going to do the grunt work for you, Denny. We’ve built the bracket and we’ll fill it out each week, as long as you guys want to read it.

And, while we certainly don’t have the prize money that would likely be needed to sweeten the pot in making this a reality (blame Ken, he's lost it all), if the winning driver wants to cash in the week of the summer Daytona race, we’ll take ‘em down to the flea market and buy ‘em a bag of candied nuts. How’s that?

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One fly in the PJ1 is Alex Bowman’s broken vertebrae, sustained in a sprint-car race this week, that will keep him sidelined for around a month. Instead of putting relief driver Josh Berry into the field, we just took Bowman out. Congratulations, Ty Dillon, who is now in as the 32 seed. His prize? A date with top-seeded Christopher Bell this weekend at Dover.

So, who is the Fairleigh Dickinson of NASCAR? (Hey! Watch the name calling!)

Let’s find out as we look at all of the (theoretical) first-round matchups at the Monster Mile.

(1) Christopher Bell vs. (32) Ty Dillon.

Again, welcome to the field Ty, we hardly knew ye.

The pick: Bell.

(16) Daniel Suarez vs. (17) Austin Cindric

Daniel Suarez has a career average finish of 13.3 at Dover.
Daniel Suarez has a career average finish of 13.3 at Dover.

Dover has quietly been one of Suarez’s best tracks (13.3 career average finish) and he has five top 10s in 10 career starts. Cindric meanwhile finished 36th in his only Dover race in the Cup Series last year. He figures to be better, but not good enough.

The pick: Suarez.

(9) Denny Hamlin vs. (24) Erik Jones

It may surprise you to know that Jones (13.6) actually has a better career average than Hamlin (16.4) at the Monster Mile. But Hamlin picked up a win there in 2020 and, hey, this is his idea, right? He can’t bow out in Round 1.

The pick: Hamlin.

(8) Ryan Blaney vs. (25) Justin Haley

We like Justin Haley's first-round, upset potential in his matchup with Ryan Blaney.
We like Justin Haley's first-round, upset potential in his matchup with Ryan Blaney.

Haley impressed in his lone Cup Series Dover start last year, finishing 11th and leading 19 laps. Meanwhile, Delaware has hardly been a vacation for Blaney, who has but two top-10 finishes in 12 starts and his average finish of 19.5 is just 18th best among active drivers. And none of that factors in his rotten luck so far in 2023.

Just like the NCAA Tournament, early upsets are bound to happen, right? This one passes the smell test.

The pick: Haley.

(5) Kyle Busch vs. (28) Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing’s two combatants will square off at the start and one has significantly outperformed the other so far this season. Busch’s three Dover wins are tied for the most among active drivers with Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex. Let’s not overthink this one.

The pick: Busch.

(12) Ricky Stenhouse vs. (21) Todd Gilliland

Gilliland has been a feel-good story thus far. His has more top-10 finishes (three) than Cindric, Jones, Bubba Wallace, Dillon, Aric Almirola, AJ Allmendinger and Ryan Preece, among others. At many tracks, this is an upset special, but Stenhouse is pretty good at the Monster Mile, which is just a supersized Bristol where he’s always been strong. If Ricky can keep it out of the fence, he can advance.

The pick: Stenhouse.

(13) William Byron vs. (20) Bubba Wallace

Bubba Wallace (23) got stuck with a tough first-round draw thanks to a points penalty for William Byron (24), who already has two wins this season.
Bubba Wallace (23) got stuck with a tough first-round draw thanks to a points penalty for William Byron (24), who already has two wins this season.

Poor Bubba just can’t catch a break. Based on performance alone, Byron, who already has two wins this season, is at least one of the top four seeds but a points penalty relegates him back to here. Hendrick Motorsports has won four of the last seven at Dover and while Byron hasn’t checked that box just yet, he has two top fives in the last four starts there.

The pick: Byron.

(4) Kyle Larson vs. (29) Harrison Burton

Larson boasts some ridiculous numbers at Dover. For instance, a 6.9 average finish over 14 races, best among active drivers. He’s finished in the top five in half of those starts with 11 top 10s. Burton finished 24th in his only start last year.

The pick: Larson.

(2) Ross Chastain vs. (31) Noah Gragson

How fitting, Chastain takes Gragson out at Talladega last week, then takes him out of the tournament this week.

The pick: Chastain.

(15) Chris Buescher vs. (18) Michael McDowell

Amazingly, McDowell is 0 for 22 when it comes to finishing in the top 10 at the Monster Mile with a career best of just 17th. It hasn’t exactly been Buescher’s forte either, but his average finish is nearly 10 full spots (21.1 to 31) better than the 2021 Daytona 500 winner’s.

The pick: Buescher.

(10) Joey Logano vs. (23) Aric Almirola

Joey Logano has never won at Dover. The good news is, he likely won't have to in order to advance past Aric Almirola.
Joey Logano has never won at Dover. The good news is, he likely won't have to in order to advance past Aric Almirola.

Yes, Logano is winless in 26 starts at Dover. But Almirola has never won here, either. And yes, we know, we’re picking a lot of chalk. And yes, Almirola has shown signs of life over the last couple of weeks. But Logano has finished in the top eight in five of his last seven races at the Monster Mile. Do you think Almirola betters that this week?

We'd need to see it first.

The pick: Logano.

(7) Martin Truex vs. (26) AJ Allmendinger

Allmendinger may already be on the phone with Hamlin, screaming that a road course should be somewhere in the five-race tourney. But under this set of fictional parameters, there isn’t one with Kansas, Darlington, Charlotte and Gateway following Dover. Oh yeah, and Truex is a stud at Dover.

The pick: Truex

(6) Tyler Reddick vs. (27) Ryan Preece

Ryan Preece has had a strong car in each of the last three races. The law of averages says, a good finish is soon to follow. We're betting, it's this week and it's enough for a first-round upset.
Ryan Preece has had a strong car in each of the last three races. The law of averages says, a good finish is soon to follow. We're betting, it's this week and it's enough for a first-round upset.

Would you believe that, while running for Rick Ware Racing, Preece (25th) beat Reddick (26th) in this very race last year? Now, in a much better ride, Preece has had race-winning speed in each of the last three starts, but has come home 24th, 15th and 34th. His luck figures to change sometime. We’ll step out on that limb and say it changes here.

The pick: Preece.

(11) Brad Keselowski vs. (22) Corey LaJoie

If this was 2023 LaJoie vs. 2022 Keselowski, we may lean upset here. But, while LaJoie has been significantly better this season, so has Keselowski, even if the finishes don’t necessarily tell the whole story. For what it’s worth, Keselowski has a win at Dover and his average of 13.1 is sixth among active drivers. LaJoie’s career best finish on the Monster Mile is 18th.

The pick: Keselowski.

(14) Chase Briscoe vs. (19) Ty Gibbs

Gibbs finished third and fifth in two Xfinity Series starts at Dover. Briscoe has finished 13th and 35th in two Cup Series races there. While Gibbs is making his major league debut on the Monster Mile, so to speak, we like the speed that car has shown in recent weeks.

The pick: Gibbs.

(3) Kevin Harvick vs. (30) Chase Elliott

The feud between drivers Chase Elliott, left, and Kevin Harvick, began at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sept. 18, 2021.
The feud between drivers Chase Elliott, left, and Kevin Harvick, began at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sept. 18, 2021.

Well, you don’t have to look too hard to find the premier matchup of this first round. Sheesh. There’s a combined five wins, 19 top fives and 32 top 10s at Dover in this pairing and Elliott won this race a year ago. We think Elliott will have the stronger car but Harvick is riding a string of eight straight top 10s in Delaware and hey, they don’t call him the closer for nothin’.

The pick: Harvick.

This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR: Denny Hamlin proposed a tournament. We picked the first round.