Mavericks offseason primer: Kyrie Irving, the Luka Doncic situation, more
The downfall of the Dallas Mavericks has been one of the most disappointing developments of the season while also feeling inevitable for the past few weeks. After making it all the way to the Western Conference Finals last year, the Mavericks didn’t even qualify for the play-in tournament this campaign. Their inability to get over .500 despite another All-NBA season from Luka Doncic shows how decimated the roster is of talent.
The Mavericks now have the task of putting together a playoff contender over the offseason with limited trade ammo and cap flexibility. Most of their resources will likely go towards retaining players like Kyrie Irving, leaving them with few free agent and trade opportunities. Doncic may have three years left on his deal but the Mavericks are probably already operating with the pressure as if he’s on an expiring contract. Things could get ugly if they don’t turn it around next season.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Dallas Mavericks.
State of the roster and how the new CBA affects them
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The sins of the Mavericks’ past are finally catching up to them. Doubling down on not extending Jalen Bruson, and ultimately losing him to the Knicks in free agency, made their trade for Irving much riskier. This is because they moved two of their most important rotation players off a roster already light on talent. Aside from the selections of Doncic and Brunson, a decade of draft misses has led to one of the weaker supporting casts for a team competing for a playoff spot this season.
Dallas’ top-tier defense from last season completely fell off after the Irving trade, particularly with the loss of Dorian Finney-Smith. Their top priority aside from free agency could be acquiring a new starting forward that could provide shooting, defense, and versatility. After trading their 2029 first-round pick, they are limited to moving just two this offseason. Trading their available picks for a new starter could be the move with the pressure to make a playoff viable roster around Doncic significantly rising.
The Mavericks will have their work cut out for them in terms of improving their roster. Assuming they re-sign Irving this offseason, they will be limited to the mid-level exception to adding another impactful role player in free agency. They would still have four more roster spots to fill, one of which could be their 2023 first-round pick, and two of which could go to Christian Wood and Dwight Powell.
Dallas owes their Top 10 protected 2023 first-round pick to New York. They now project to have the 10th worst record in the league, giving them a 77.6 percent chance at keeping it this year and rolling over their obligation into 2024. Keeping the pick this season doesn’t change the number of first-rounders they’re allowed to trade this summer, but it gives them at least one valuable pick to play with in trades. They also have an 11.6 percent chance of moving up into the Top 4, which would change their future outlook entirely.
Re-signing all of Irving, Wood, and Powell could put the Mavericks deep into the luxury tax next season, especially if Irving gets a maximum or near-maximum salary. Maximizing their spending power could also put them in a position to be near or above the newly implemented second apron. Teams above the second apron lose access to the mid-level exception and can only increase payroll by re-signing players and signing draft picks and minimum players. They may have to choose between re-signing one of their role players and having access to the mid-level exception this season.
If the Mavericks don’t re-sign any of their top free agents, they could generate up to $21 million in cap space. That isn’t significant cap space nowadays as they’d only be able to replace just one of their top free agents with that amount. Operating over the cap and re-signing most or all of their top free agents is the better option this offseason. And that reality could be used as leverage against them in negotiations.
Kyrie Irving free agency
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Kyrie Irving will be the Mavericks’ top free agent this offseason. As detailed in his free agency analysis, he should be in a good position to receive a lucrative contract from them considering how much they gave up in the trade for him, and how limited their options are if he leaves.
Irving will be eligible to re-sign with the Mavericks for up to a maximum of five years, $272 million. He could also avoid free agency by extending by June 30 for up to two years, $78.6 million, but he seems set on entering free agency to pursue more. He requested a trade out of Brooklyn largely due to their resistance to giving him a long-term extension, so his current maximum extension would appear to be a non-starter.
Christian Wood and Dwight Powell's free agency
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Christian Wood’s tenure in Dallas has been strange in terms of his minutes’ distribution. He is their best scorer outside of Doncic and Irving and often times the only player who consistently scores off the bench. On a per-possession basis, his current season is on par with his previous two in Houston. And despite all that, he’s being marginalized because of his defensive deficiencies.
It feels like Wood and the Mavericks are headed for separation but it’s still possible he returns. As mentioned earlier, they will not be able to replace him or his salary slot if he leaves in free agency. It would make sense to pursue a deal for him at least at his current salary range to see if things could work out later. At worst, he would still be on a tradeable contract. He is also extension-eligible through June 30 for up to four years, $77 million, but the Mavericks reportedly are willing to extend him for half that amount.
Dwight Powell is another important free agent for the Mavericks this offseason. He’s been one of the team’s most reliable big men and has the trust of Kidd. It seems like a good bet the team will look to re-sign him this summer and could still be extended through June 30. His next contract could have him earning around his $11 million salary or potentially a little less to put him on par with big men like Kevon Looney, Mason Plumlee, and Isaiah Hartenstein.
Josh Green extension
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The Mavericks have a handful of players who will become extension-eligible this offseason with Josh Green being the most prominent of the group. Part of their willingness to give up Finney-Smith in the Irving trade was their confidence in Green. He was elevated into the starting lineup and although he was removed from it recently, head coach Jason Kidd is high on him and believes he should get a lucrative contract.
Green is having his best season yet on both ends of the court. He averaged 9.1 points per game on 64.5 percent true shooting while shooting 40.2 percent from three. He generally has low usage and is a good play-finisher with his athleticism and his ability to hit enough open three-pointers. He still barely gets to the free-throw line but has steadily improved his attempts and percentage, with more room to grow with his ability to get to the basket.
Green’s effort on the defensive end is arguably the strongest part of his game right now and what is keeping him a main part of the Mavericks’ rotation. He’s one of their best perimeter defenders with an ability to defend multiple positions despite his 6’5″ stature. Even if he doesn’t project to be their starter next season, he can be valuable situationally and potentially become a starter again depending on what happens to the roster.
Green will be eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension during the offseason and up until the day before the regular season begins. Recent relevant second contracts for defensive-first, offensively limited guards range widely. Rotation guards like Alex Caruso, Delon Wright, De’Anthony Melton, and Gary Payton II are all earning $8-9 million annually. A deal where Green earns slightly more than the second group of players could make sense in a rising cap environment.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 9
Guaranteed salaries: $108.4 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $5.5 million
Total salary: $113.9 million
Luxury tax space: $48.1 million
Apron space: $55.6 million
Second apron space: $65.6 million
Exceptions:
Non-taxpayer Mid-level: $12.2 million
Bi-Annual: $4.5 million
Marquese Chriss trade exception: $958,529 (expires June 26, 2023)
Luka Doncic
Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $40,064,220
Remaining salary guaranteed: $178,063,200 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
$57.2 million player option in 2026-27
15 percent trade bonus (expected to be valued at $543,120)
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $17,897,728
Remaining salary guaranteed: $34,090,911 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
Eligible to extend starting this offseason for up to three years, $73.5 million
Davis Bertans
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $17,000,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $35,000,000 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
Eligible to extend starting this offseason for up to three years, $72.6 million
Has an Early Termination Option in 2024-25 worth $16 million
His 2024-25 salary is only $5 million guaranteed and becomes fully guaranteed if he plays at least 62 games in 2023-24
Maxi Kleber
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $11,000,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $33,000,000 through 2025-26
Reggie Bullock
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $10,489,600
Remaining salary guaranteed: $10,489,600
Additional notes:
Eligible to extend starting this offseason for up to four years, $75 million
Has a 5 percent trade bonus currently worth $524,480
His 2023-24 salary is only $5,451,200 guaranteed and becomes fully guaranteed on June 28, 2023
JaVale McGee
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $5,734,280
Remaining salary guaranteed: $11,741,621 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
Has a player option in 2024-25 worth $6 million.
Josh Green
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $4,765,339
Remaining salary guaranteed: $4,765,339
Additional notes:
Eligible to sign a rookie-scale extension starting this offseason through the day before the regular season begins for up to a five year deal
Jaden Hardy
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
2023-24 salary: $1,719,864
Remaining salary guaranteed: $3,739,563
Additional notes:
His 2024-25 salary is only $400,000 guaranteed and becomes fully guaranteed on June 30, 2024
Kyrie Irving
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $46,900,000
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes:
Can avoid free agency and extend with the Mavericks by June 30, 2023 for up to two years, $78.6 million
Christian Wood
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $21,476,189
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes:
Can avoid free agency and extend with the Mavericks by June 30, 2023 for up to four years, $77 million
Dwight Powell
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $16,620,188
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Additional notes:
Can avoid free agency and extend with the Mavericks by June 30, 2023 for up to four years, $59.6 million
Justin Holiday
(Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Markieff Morris
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Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Frank Ntilikina
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Early Bird (unrestricted)
Theo Pinson
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Early Bird (unrestricted)
AJ Lawson
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
McKinley Wright IV
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
2022 Pick No. 10
2023-24 salary: $5,212,800
Remaining salary guaranteed: $23,730,606 through 2026-27
Additional notes: HoopsHype and ForTheWin’s draft expert Bryan Kalbrosky has the Mavericks selecting Anthony Black with the 10th overall selection in his most recent mock draft.
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