Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for Week 17 of 2023 season
We made it, fam.
Sure, the kids may not use that phrase as often these days but the truth is…I feel that way. So screw it. I’m using it. I do, in fact, feel like, in a weird, fantasy football on the internet sort of way, you are my family. And we made it. End of the season.
Even given that fantasy football is always wacky and unpredictable, this year, more than ever, has felt like an insane ride with more injuries and big-name guys letting us down than ever before, not to mention out-of-nowhere surprises. I mean, Joe Flacco is a fantasy superstar over the last month. Nutty times, indeed.
At any rate, this is the last “Love/Hate” of the year. There will be Week 18 rankings, daily episodes of Fantasy Football Happy Hour, and of course, a Sunday morning Fantasy Football Pregame as well, but this is the final Love/Hate of the year, an acknowledgement that the majority of fantasy leagues are over this week.
So, before we get into it, I just want to thank a few folks. First, my producer Damian Dabrowski who I am so incredibly thrilled I was able to talk into coming with me to NBC from ESPN, where we worked together for five years. He’s an incredible resource, makes this column and, candidly, all of my content, much better and I’m lucky to have him.
Also, a huge thank you to Blake Friedman, aka 'Penn State Blake', the researcher on Fantasy Football Happy Hour and Fantasy Football Pregame. I like to give him a hard time but truth is he does a great job and we’d be lost without him.
Thanks to Chris Wilson here at NBC Sports who has edited this column all year – never an easy job. I’m pretty sure the only job worse than having to write this column every week is having to try and edit it. Appreciate you, Chris. Shout out to Ron Vaccaro, my big boss at NBC Sports digital for his continued support of the column and specifically me.
Not specifically column related, but I wanted to give a shout-out to my Fantasy Football Happy Hour and Fantasy Football Pregame team. Jay Croucher and Connor Rogers are are so absolutely great as co-hosts – smart and funny and with crazy good expertise. Lawrence Jackson and Denny Carter absolutely crush Happy Hour and Pregame every time they are on. Michael Smith does a great job as host/resident dynasty friend of Fantasy Football Pregame.
The producers of Happy Hour/Pregame – Main producer Stephen DeAugustino, Back-up Producer Pete Damilatis and Alternate Producer Adam Wise.
Every single day all we do is laugh and laugh and laugh. Pretty good way to make a living. You know I have been at NBC Sports for two years now and not once – seriously never – have I gotten a “no” or “don’t do that” or “you can’t make that joke” note from anyone. Full and total creative support.
So shout out to the “suits” that don’t act like suits and just focus on trying to give us the tools to make the best content we can every day. Rick Cordella, Sam Flood, Matt Casey, Alexa Maremaa and Danielle Cranin.
And of course, I have to shout out my Football Night in America team. Too many to mention but it is legit an honor to work with them every single week.
And lastly, a huge thank you to YOU. For finding this column, for reading it every week, for telling me how much you love the open or how much you didn’t need it and just wanted some names. All of it helpful and just the fact you have a strong opinion on the column at all is a huge compliment, whatever the opinion is. So I appreciate your support, understanding and continued enthusiasm for the column.
I don’t know what the future holds for the column. It’s my birthday on December 29 and I’m taking the day off and spending it with my family and specifically NOT thinking about this column, work or anything else.
There will be time for reflection and decisions about the future when I’m away from the season and have had a chance to re-charge. Regardless, you’ll still hear A LOT from me all next season and I look forward to seeing you back again.
Speaking of next season, he said by way of awkward segue, because this is the finals week in most leagues, that means in most leagues this column is really only interesting to two people in any league. So in a blatant attempt to drive traffic that appeals to everyone, regardless of if they are in the finals or not, I present to you my way way way too early Top 50 for 2024.
Some quick notes. This takes into account how the NFL currently is (i.e. – Austin Ekeler is ranked as if he is still on the Chargers but his future there is obviously very much up in the air.). But I am also making some (hopefully obvious) assumptions. That Aaron Rodgers will be back and back healthy, hence the ranks for Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. That the Chiefs get Patrick Mahomes some people that can catch next year. That Mark Andrews and Nick Chubb come back fully healthy in time for the start of the season. And so on. Where I have ranked players of the same position next to each other is my way of saying they are very similar and it’s mostly just personal preference.
This will change significantly as teams add and lose free agents, draft players, coaches will be fired and hired and offensive schemes will change etc. As changes happen over the off-season, I will update this list and ultimately expand it.
Here we go:
Matthew Berry’s Way Way Too Early Top 50 for 2024 PPR Leagues
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
2. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
3. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN
4. Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
5. CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
6. A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
8. Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
9. Breece Hall, RB, NYJ
10. Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
11. Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
12. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
13. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
14. Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF
15. Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
16. Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
17. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
18. Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
19. Josh Allen, QB, BUF
20. Saquon Barkley, RB, NYG
21. Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
22. Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
23. James Cook, RB, BUF
24. Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND
25. Chris Olave, WR, NO
26. Nico Collins, WR, HOU
27. Davante Adams, WR, LV
28. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
29. Devon Achane, RB, MIA
30. Mike Evans, WR, TB
31. Keenan Allen, WR, LAC
32. Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
33. DJ Moore, WR, CHI
34. Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
35. Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
36. DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
37. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
38. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
39. Rachaad White, RB, TB
40. Tony Pollard, RB, DAL
41. Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
42. DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
43. Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
44. Josh Jacobs, RB, LV
45. Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC
46. Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
47. Rashee Rice, WR, KC
48. Tank Dell, WR, HOU
49. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
50. Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
I look forward to calm and rational discussion about these ranks on my social handles. On X/Twitter I’m @MatthewBerryTMR and I’m MatthewBerryTMR on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and Threads. I’ve actually started to do a lot more on LinkedIN so if you’d like my more entrepreneurial thoughts you can find me here. And finally, I’m merely @MatthewBerry on the FantasyLifeApp.
Last reminder me and my team send out a daily free newsletter every single day with a quick five-minute read on what you need to know for the day in fantasy football and sports betting. It’s 100% FREE and available here.
Ok. That’s everything. Let’s get to it. Since it’s a championship week the names are bit more “shallow” and there are fewer than normal. At this point you likely know who you’re rolling with. Good luck this week. Go out there and bring home a winner.
Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 17
Dak Prescott vs. Detroit
Dak Prescott in the playoffs. What could possibly go wrong? Luckily this is just the fantasy playoffs and even better, it’s a home game for the Cowboys. Dak averages 25.5 PPG in the friendly and enormous confines of AT&T Stadium. Plus, I love Dak Prescott’s matchup here. Over the past four weeks, Detroit ranks as a bottom-five pass defense. The Lions are also allowing a league-high 14.4 yards per completion over that stretch. Vegas also has the Cowboys slated for the second-highest team total this week. I get it, there are a lot of people who won’t trust Dak Prescott in the NFL playoffs. (Raises hand, waves it around) but in the championship round of the fantasy playoffs? He’s my QB 2.
Brock Purdy at Washington
Imagine you’re in a relationship. It’s only a few months old, but it’s going very well. So well, in fact, that you decide to bring your special someone to your end-of-year company party. You pick them up and they look amazing. You just know it’s going to be a perfect night. This person is 'The One.' Then, five minutes after arriving at the party, your “perfect” date is wasted on punch, starts making out with the DJ and then vomits all over your boss. That was the story of Brock Purdy in Week 17. He took a lot of fantasy managers to the playoffs … and then went out and put up his worst performance of the season. But if you managed to pay off the DJ and tell your boss it was food poisoning and you’ve convinced your significant other not to sue, then I think there’s every reason to believe that you two crazy kids can take this relationship all the way to a fantasy championship. Sure, it’s a confusing joke that switches tense and subject, but the one thing we can all agree on is my Washington Commanders are terrible. Hashtag analysis. (You’re welcome.) Washington has allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and they allow passing touchdowns at the highest rate in the league. Since dealing Montez Sweat before the trade deadline, Washington ranks 31st in pressure rate. The Commanders have also allowed at least 28 points in six straight games. I could go on, but my New Year’s resolution is to only share four terrible Commanders stats per column in order to maintain my sanity. Anyway…the Brock Purdy you took to the dance will be back in Week 17. He’s a Top 4 quarterback again.
Kyler Murray at Philadelphia
Since Week 8, the Eagles are giving up a league-high 23.4 PPG to quarterbacks. Over the same stretch, Philadelphia is allowing touchdown passes at the third-highest rate. With Kyler Murray averaging 31 rush yards per game since returning from injury, Murray has both a high floor and high ceiling against the Eagles. Murray, by the way, has at least one goal-line carry in four of his last six games. So if you like quarterbacks running near the goal-line – or at least having their tush pushed near the goal-line – this is the game for you. Murray is a Top 7 quarterback in Week 17.
Others receiving votes
Since Week 12, Matthew Stafford is QB4 in PPG (21.8). This week he faces a Giants defense that has given up 17-plus fantasy points to four of the past six quarterbacks it has faced. With CJ Stroud missing the last two weeks, he is no longer a Rookie of the Year lock according to oddsmakers. But if he does return to the field this week at home against the Titans, he should be a lock at quarterback in most every fantasy lineup. Tennessee is allowing the fifth-highest passer rating to quarterbacks this season, while Stroud averages 23.1 PPG at home. … Over the past four weeks, Pittsburgh is allowing touchdown passes at the fifth-highest rate. That’s good news for Geno Smith, who has put up consecutive performances with at least 17 fantasy points for the first time this season. Plus, you know Smith is going to need to put up a lot of points to keep up with that high-powered, Mason Rudolph-led Steelers offense. (I’m kidding about that last part. I think.)
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 17
Tua Tagovailoa at Baltimore
With two weeks left on the NFL schedule, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards and completion percentage and is second in quarterback rating and yards per attempt. That’s all great. Yet it’s only been enough to get him to QB11 overall and QB18 on a PPG basis. My point is this: Tua has some gaudy numbers this year, it’s true. But in fantasy? He’s not necessarily a set-it-and-forget-it QB, and there is a strong case to bench him for a better option this week with your championship on the line. Especially against this Ravens defense. Baltimore has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns this season and only two quarterbacks have put up 17-plus fantasy points against them all season. And as amazing as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have been this season, don’t forget that the Ravens allow the second-lowest completion rate on deep passes. Or that Waddle is dealing with a high-ankle injury. There’s a reason that this week no less than FIFTEEN teams are projected to score more points than the Dolphins. There’s also a reason – a lot of reason, in fact – that Tagovailoa is outside my Top 15 quarterbacks in Week 17.
Jake Browning at Kansas City
The Minnesota Vikings cut Jake Browning early in his career, leading him to yell “They shoulda never f##king cut me!” while beating the very same Vikings in Week 16. It’s clear that Browning takes roster moves personally. So prepare for Browning to scream at you this week if you bench him for your fantasy championship. But the fact is that Browning has a very tough matchup this week in Kansas City. As we all know, this Chiefs team uses its defense to stay in games in order to overcome its very poor offense. (Yes, that’s a real and factual sentence I just wrote. Crazy times.) Kansas City ranks third in pass defense this season. The Chiefs have given up multiple touchdown passes only once in their past seven games. And, during that seven-game stretch, the Chiefs are allowing only 14.4 PPG to quarterbacks. I get it. Browning has been a nice stop gap for both Cincy and fantasy managers since Joe Burrow went down to injury but I’m worried if you play Browning against the Chiefs you’ll find yourself screaming: “I never shoulda f##king started him!” Browning is just my QB 21 this week.
Running Backs I Love in Week 17
Kyren Williams at New York Giants
What a moment last week when Kyren Williams scored a touchdown and then handed the ball to his mother in the stands. I’m sure Williams is always on his mother’s 'Love' list. But he’s worked his way onto my 'Love' list most every week, too. Because you don’t have to be related to Kyren Williams to love him. You just have to have him on your fantasy roster. Williams is RB8 overall this season and RB2 on a PPG basis, behind only Christian McCaffrey. Since returning to action in Week 12, Williams has at least 22 touches in every game. Maybe even more important: he leads all backs in touches inside the 10-yard line during that span. Now he has a prime matchup in Week 17. The Giants allow the third-most rushing yards to backs on the season and RBs who have seen 15-plus touches against the Giants are averaging 18.3 PPG. This week Williams is my RB 2.
Jahmyr Gibbs at Dallas
Since David Montgomery returned to action, Jahmyr Gibbs is RB4 in PPG (18.8). He also ranks Top 5 in red zone touches since Montgomery returned. Now Gibbs faces a Dallas defense that ranks 32nd in success rate against rush plays this season. And, over the past four weeks, Dallas ranks bottom-10 in PPG allowed to backs. Leaving Gibbs out of your lineup this week would be a major whiff. Not as big as Akayleb Evans’ whiff on Gibbs last week. But pretty close. Gibbs is a Top 6 back for me.
Josh Jacobs or Zamir White at Indianapolis
The Colts have allowed 100-plus scrimmage yards to a back in five of their last six games. Over that same six-game stretch, the Colts are allowing the third-most PPG to running backs (28.5). All that means is you have to have whoever suits up as the Raiders’ RB1 on Sunday. Since the coaching change in Vegas, Josh Jacobs is averaging 21.8 touches per game. But if he doesn’t play again this week, Zamir White is the play. He has 42 touches in the two games Jacobs missed and is averaging 16.0 PPG in those games. I’m not picky. I love whoever is in that Raiders backfield facing the Colts this week.
Others receiving votes
While Jalen Hurts (and Hurts’ backside) continue to handle much of the work near the goal-line, D’Andre Swift should be able to put up good numbers against the Cardinals even if he doesn’t find the end zone. The Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs this season. … The Packers gave Aaron Jones a season-high 21 carries last week. I mean sure, he didn’t score for me despite running so well in a match-up I lost by less than six and also have Cooper Kupp who dropped two touchdown passes, but I’m definitely not bitter. I’m very excited to play Jones in my third place game in that league as he now has back-to-back games with 17-plus touches, after having just two such games previously all season. (Thanks so much for waiting to lean on Jones until mid-December, Green Bay. Helpful as always!) But that sort of usage should go a long way this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed 100-plus scrimmage yards to a back in three of their last four games, especially with the Packers pass catchers so banged up. Speaking of increased late-season usage, Jaylen Warren has had his two highest snap rates of the season in the past two weeks. He also has back-to-back games with a target share of at least 20%.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 17
Tony Pollard vs. Detroit
Tony Pollard has just 13 fantasy points total in his last two games. That’s the reason they call it “unlucky 13,” because if your top fantasy back scores just 13 points in back-to-back games in December, your fantasy team is f'd. I’m pretty sure that’s the reason, at least. Maybe not. But let’s go with it. By the way, Pollard also has less than 15 touches in each of those games along with a single-digit target share. I’d love to say it all turns around this week, but I hate lying to you. Of all the players picked in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts this year that stayed healthy, Tony Pollard is clearly the biggest fantasy bust of the year. If you made it to the fantasy finals you did it in spite of Pollard, not because of him and that’s likely going to be true if you win it all this week. Tough match-up on Saturday as Detroit has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season and five of the last seven RBs to face the Lions scored less than 12 fantasy points. No back this season has rushed for more than 67 yards against the Lions this season. Fifteen games in, that’s not a fluke. What would be a fluke is Pollard putting up big fantasy numbers this week. That’s why I have him outside my Top 20 at the position.
Jerome Ford vs. New York Jets
Over the past two weeks, Jerome Ford is averaging just 1.8 yards per reception. That’s the bad news. The good news is that over the same span, he’s averaging far more yards per carry: 1.9. Okay, it turns out I don’t really have any good news for you about Jerome Ford. And, really, it’s not just the last two weeks in which he’s struggled. Over his past four games, Ford is averaging just 2.6 YPC and 60% of his fantasy points during that span have come from receiving. Also, get this: since Nick Chubb’s injury, Ford is getting just 28% of Cleveland’s red zone carries. Yes, he scored last week, but much more often than not they prefer Kareem Hunt when they get in close. So, to recap: Jerome Ford is hardly gaining any yards per touch and he rarely gets the ball in a position to score. What’s not to hate? To make it all even worse, this week he faces a Jets defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing just 3.6 YPC to backs (eighth-fewest). I have Ford outside the Top 30 this week at running back.
Gus Edwards vs. Miami
Since Week 9, Gus Edwards has only one game with more than 40% of Baltimore’s team rush attempts. During that same stretch, his target share is below 3%. He has just four games all season with 15-plus fantasy points and all four of those games feel like aberrations. In three of them he had multiple touchdowns and he had an 80-yard reception in the other. Now, he gets a Miami defense that, since Week 5, has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs. Yes he caught a flukey 46 yarder last week but he's not really involved in the pass game and is very touchdown dependent. Just depends how lucky you feel this week. For me, I have him outside my Top 30 running backs.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 17
Deebo Samuel at Washington
Last week Deebo Samuel faced Baltimore’s pass defense. This week he faces Washington’s. Those two defenses are basically 5,000 miles apart. Okay, well, literally they are only 32.7 miles apart - the distance from FedEx Field to M&T Bank Stadium. But it’s called hyperbole, people. Yeesh. Speaking of yeesh, let’s get back to my Commanders D. Oh you were worried I had run out of bad Washington defensive stats when I discussed Purdy? Please. I have so many I have re-gifted them to all my relatives instead of actual presents this year. Speaking of presents, that's what they are to Deebo this week. Since Week 10, Washington is allowing a league-high 44.1 PPG to wide receivers. The Commanders have also allowed the second-most receptions of 25-plus yards this season. And, in three of their last four games, Washington has given up 200-plus yards AND two or more touchdowns to wide receivers. Ohhhhhh crap. I just realized I’ve blown through my self-imposed and now self-blown-off per-column cap on terrible Commanders stats. So let’s move onto a good Deebo Samuel stat: in four of his past five games, Samuel has at least a 27% target share. That kind of usage against Washington should lead to a very good day. Samuel is a Top 6 wide receiver for me this week.
Chris Olave at Tampa Bay
Last week Chris Olave was Top 7 in targets, receptions and yards. More like Merry Chris-mas, amiright? Okay, jeez. I didn’t expect even Santa to boo. Jolly my ass. Anyway, since Week 9, Olave is a Top 10 WR in points per game and, since Week 6, he has only one game with fewer than eight targets. Meanwhile, wide receivers who see seven-plus targets against the Bucs this season are averaging 18.3 PPG. The Bucs have also allowed the most yards to wide receivers this season and the fourth-most fantasy points. Okay, I just provided a lot of good analysis. Can you stop booing now? Thanks. Olave is a Top 12 WR this week.
Nico Collins vs. Tennessee
In Nico Collins’ full games with CJ Stroud this season (Week 1-13) he is WR9 in PPG. Collins is also averaging 23.0 PPG at home this season. In fact, all six of Collins’ touchdowns have come at home. So yeah, with Stroud expected to return this week and the Texans playing at home, I’m feeling good about Collins. And facing a Titans team that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers? I’m actually feeling great about Collins in Week 17. He’s my WR 9.
Trey McBride at Philadelphia
This season’s breakout tight end is closing the fantasy season against a defense that is one of the worst in the league against the pass. It couldn’t be scripted any better. Well, I guess it could be scripted a little better. As everyone in Hollywood knows, every great script should include a big part for a handsome S.H.I.E.L.D. Agent. But where was I? Ah, yes…Trey McBride taking on the Eagles. Tight ends who have seen six-plus targets versus the Eagles are averaging 16.0 PPG. Philadelphia also allows the most yards to the slot, while 63% of McBride’s targets over the past two weeks have been in the slot. With McBride having the seventh-highest target share (28%) among ALL players since taking over at the starter in Arizona, I have McBride as an easy Top 3 tight end for the fantasy finals.
Others receiving votes
The Saints have faced the third-most slot targets this season, while Chris Godwin now has three straight games with a target share above 30%. He also has three-plus deep targets in each of those games. … Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-most yards to the slot this season. That sets up well for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The rookie continues to produce down the stretch with 12-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games and a 21% target share over the stretch. It’s nearly time to take down your Douglas fir. Yet at the same time, you need a Demario Douglas fir your fantasy team. Get it? Wow. Booing again, huh? That’s fair. Week 17 means you get the jokes that didn’t make it into the previous 16 columns. These are 17th-string jokes. Jokes that are so far down on the depth chart that they could start at quarterback for the Jets. But seriously, consider some Demario Douglas for your fantasy team. Since Week 8, he has a 23% target share and five-plus receptions in all but one game over that stretch. This week he faces a Buffalo defense that allows the fourth-highest catch rate to the slot. Derrick Henry threw his second touchdown of the season last week to Chig Okonkwo. Is Derrick Henry Tennessee’s best running back and their best quarterback? Maybe so. But that’s a discussion for another time. For now let’s talk about Okonkwo facing the Texans. Houston ranks bottom-five in receptions, yards and fantasy points allowed to tight ends. As for Okonkwo, since Week 12 he is TE12 in PPG and has a 17.8% target share over that span, meaning he’s been producing even for lesser quarterbacks than Derrick Henry. Denver allows the most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Way to go, Russell Wilson. That’s totally your fault too. Anyways, this week the Broncos face Gerald Everett, who has a 23% target share over his last three games and five-plus receptions in each of those games.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 17
DJ Moore vs. Atlanta
The Falcons ruined the 2023 fantasy seasons of their most talented offensive players, so it’s only fitting that they also ruin the final game of the season for DJ Moore (WR10 overall), as well. Since Week 9, Atlanta has allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. During that stretch, only one WR has scored more than 13 points against the Falcons and only two wide receivers have put up more than 53 yards. This week Moore faces a tough matchup against A.J. Terrell and he’ll also be playing on a gimpy ankle that he injured last week. Not a lot to like here. That’s why I have Moore outside my Top 20 at the position.
Calvin Ridley vs. Carolina
Since Week 7, only two wide receivers have had more than 64 receiving yards against the Panthers. Carolina also allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers on the season. With Trevor Lawrence dealing with a shoulder injury and Jaguars-Panthers having the second-lowest game total of the week, how confident are you that Ridley is in a good position to get points this week? I won’t tell you how confident I am. I’ll just tell you that he’s on my 'Hate' list and outside my Top 25 WRs for the week.
George Pickens at Seattle
As good as George Pickens was last week, his performance in some ways just highlighted his inconsistency. Pickens’ two touchdowns were great … but now 34% of his total fantasy points this season have now come from his five scoring plays. Despite putting up 35.5 fantasy points, he only had four receptions last week – meaning he still has just one game since Week 8 with more than four receptions. Pickens also has a target share below 20% in six of his last nine games. Now he faces a Seahawks defense that, over the last 10 games, is allowing the fifth-fewest yards on deep passes. That means that when it comes to opportunities to put up fantasy points this week, the Pickens will be slim. Yes, boos to end the season. It just feels right. Thank you.
