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Marquette basketball vs. Western Kentucky: Who has the edge in 2024 NCAA Tournament first round?

Ben Steele, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
·4 min read

The Marquette men’s basketball team learned Sunday that it will face Western Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament at 1 p.m. CDT on Friday in Indianapolis.

The Golden Eagles (25-9) have spent the last few days getting to know the Hilltoppers (22-11), who won an automatic bid by winning the Conference USA tournament and also feature a star guard who went to high school just a few blocks from MU’s campus.

Here is a look at the matchup:

Oso Ighodaro is a versatile big man for Marquette who has more assists than any player on Western Kentucky.
Oso Ighodaro is a versatile big man for Marquette who has more assists than any player on Western Kentucky.

FRONTCOURT

Marquette (Oso Ighodaro, David Joplin) vs. Western Kentucky (Rodney Howard, Tyrone Marshall)

The Hilltoppers don’t have a lot of rim protection, with a block percentage of 9.7 that ranks 223rd in the nation, according to statistical website kenpom.com. Howard hasn't attempted a three-pointer this season, so he is not a threat away from the basket. Ighodaro is a play-making big man who has more assists than any player on Western Kentucky’s roster. Joplin averaged 34.7 minutes over the Golden Eagles’ three games in the Big East tournament.

Advantage: MU

Stevie Mitchell, left, is Marquette's best perimeter defender.
Stevie Mitchell, left, is Marquette's best perimeter defender.

BACKCOURT

Marquette (Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, Stevie Mitchell) vs. Western Kentucky (Don McHenry, Enoch Kalambray, Brandon Newman)

McHenry, a former star at Milwaukee Academy of Science High School, is the Hilltoppers’ offensive fulcrum, averaging 15.2 points per game. He is not shy about putting up shots, with his 406 field-goal attempts far exceeding Newman’s 281 for most on the team. Newman is a transfer from Purdue who had seven points against MU last season. McHenry will be guarded by MU’s defensive stopper in Mitchell, who is nursing a left shoulder injury. Kolek hasn’t played since Feb. 28 because of an oblique injury, but should return for this one. Jones took on the bulk of playmaking with Kolek out and put up 22 assists over the last four games.

Advantage: MU

BENCH

Marquette (Chase Ross, Ben Gold, Zaide Lowery, Tre Norman) vs. Western Kentucky (Babacar Faye, Khristian Lander, Dontaie Allen, Teagan Moore)

Faye had 10 rebounds, including four on the offensive end, against Texas El-Paso in the Conference USA title game. Lander played his first two seasons at Indiana. Allen is Western Kentucky's top marksman at 39.7%. Gold has found his three-point stroke, making 9 of 11 over the last five games. Ross has been hampered by a left leg injury, but Lowery and Norman both showed sparks off the bench in the Big East tournament.

Advantage: MU

Shaka Smart has led Marquette to a No. 2 seeding in the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons.
Shaka Smart has led Marquette to a No. 2 seeding in the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons.

COACH

Marquette's Shaka Smart vs. Western Kentucky's Steve Lutz

Smart has guided the Golden Eagles to back-to-back No. 2 seedings in the NCAA Tournament. He broke a decade-long victory drought in the tournament last season when MU beat Vermont in the first round. Lutz is in his first season with the Hilltoppers and brought them to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 11 years.

Advantage: MU

FOUR THINGS TO WATCH

How does Tyler Kolek look? Kolek missed six games, but he's expected to return. He will likely need some time to knock off rust. How will he keep up against a team that plays at a breakneck pace?

The pace of play: The Hilltoppers get up and down the floor. They play at the fastest tempo in the country, according to KenPom, at 75.2 possessions per game. This freewheeling game usually plays right into the Golden Eagles' hands, but MU's roster has been banged up.

Nerves of the freshmen: With all those injuries, Lowery and Norman have been playing in big games. The MU freshmen didn't shy away from the bright lights at Madison Square Garden in New York last week, so that bodes well. But the NCAA Tournament is different kind of pressure-cooker.

Western Kentucky's high-major talent: The Hilltoppers have players who have competed at the high-major level. In addition to Newman and Lander, Allen (Kentucky) and Howard (Georgia Tech) also transferred down from bigger schools.

Marquette prediction vs. Western Kentucky: March Madness first round

This game is about the Golden Eagles getting back into a flow with Kolek on the court. It might be tougher than expected for MU, but there's enough edge in talent to push MU into the second round.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Marquette vs Western Kentucky prediction for March Madness first round