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March Madness predictions: Projecting NCAA Tournament bracket for ACC basketball teams

craig meyer, usa today network
·7 min read

Can the ACC win the 2024 NCAA Tournament?

That may seem a strange question for a conference that boasts some of the most prominent programs in major college basketball history. Moreover, anything is possible for a championship tournament whose March Madness moniker is not only justifiable, but also rightfully earned.

Even so, the ACC has had something of a championship drought in recent seasons, with its most recent title coming by way of Tony Bennett's Virginia Cavaliers team in 2019. North Carolina hasn't won a title since 2017 — Duke, since 2015.

REQUIRED READING: The word Duke basketball coach Jon Scheyer uses to describe Blue Devils guard Jared McCain

Hubert Davis' Tar Heels and Jon Scheyer's Blue Devils remain the class of the ACC in 2023-24 — followed closely behind by Bennett and the Cavaliers — but can one of those teams break through for the conference's first title in five seasons? Or will a surprise team end the title drought?

With Selection Sunday looming in the not-too-distant future, those questions and more will dominate the final month of the college basketball season. Before it's all said and done, the ACC and its teams are likely to factor in how the season plays out.

Until then, the next-best option is to project where those teams and more will fit into the NCAA Tournament field of 68. With that, here's a look at how their projections if the season ended today:

2024 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Note: this projection does not take into account games that took place on Tuesday, Feb. 13.

** Participating in a play-in game

Last four in:

  • Mississippi State

  • Butler

  • Nebraska

  • Cincinnati

First four out:

  • Utah

  • Wake Forest

  • Gonzaga

  • St. John’s

No. 1 seeds

  • UConn (22-2, 12-1 Big East): NET No. 4 | KenPom No. 3

  • Purdue (22-2, 11-2 Big Ten): NET No. 2 | KenPom No. 2

  • Houston (21-3, 8-3 Big 12): NET No. 1 | KenPom No. 1

  • Arizona (19-5, 10-3 Pac-12): NET No. 3 | KenPom No. 4

No. 2 seeds

  • Tennessee (17-6, 7-3 SEC): NET No. 6 | KenPom No. 7

  • North Carolina (19-5, 11-2 ACC): NET No. 10 | KenPom No. 8

  • Marquette (18-5, 9-3 Big East): NET No. 11 | KenPom No. 10

  • Iowa State (18-5, 7-3 Big 12): NET No. 9 | KenPom No. 9

The Tar Heels were widely considered a No. 1 seed earlier this month, but a pair of recent setbacks have coach Hubert Davis' team dropping a seed line. North Carolina is still the class of the ACC, and still owns a much-coveted win against archrival Duke — but it's just 2-2 in its past four games after a 17-3 start.

No. 3 seeds

  • Kansas (19-6, 7-5 Big 12): NET No. 17 | KenPom No. 18

  • Alabama (17-7, 9-2 SEC): NET No. 5 | KenPom No. 6

  • Auburn (19-5, 8-3 SEC): NET No. 7 | KenPom No. 5

  • Baylor (17-6, 6-4 Big 12) NET No. 12 | KenPom No. 14

No. 4 seeds

  • Illinois (17-6, 8-4 Big Ten): NET No. 13 | KenPom No. 11

  • Duke (19-5, 10-3 ACC): NET No. 16 | KenPom No. 13

  • South Carolina (21-3, 9-2 SEC): NET No. 45 | KenPom No. 45

  • Dayton (19-4, 9-2 Atlantic 10): NET No. 18 | KenPom: 24

The Blue Devils have had a couple of baffling losses in ACC play this season, falling to Georgia Tech on the road and Pitt at home, but have a solid overall statistical profile. In its second season under coach Jon Scheyer, Duke's biggest improvement this season has come on offense: It ranks No. 8 in offensive efficiency among all Division I teams, according to KenPom, after finishing last season No. 40.

REQUIRED READING: College basketball rankings: ACC teams in updated Coaches Poll, AP Top 25 on February 12

No. 5 seeds

  • Creighton (17-7, 8-5 Big East): NET No. 15 | KenPom No. 16

  • Wisconsin (16-8, 8-5 Big Ten): NET No. 21 | KenPom No. 17

  • BYU (17-6, 5-5 Big 12): NET No. 8 | KenPom No. 12

  • San Diego State (18-6, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 19 | KenPom No. 20

No. 6 seeds

  • Saint Mary’s (20-6, 11-0 West Coast): NET No. 14 | KenPom No. 23

  • Kentucky (16-7, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 25 | KenPom No. 28

  • Texas Tech (17-6, 6-4 Big 12): NET No. 26 | KenPom No. 21

  • Florida Atlantic (19-5, 9-2 American Athletic): NET No. 27 | KenPom No. 30

No. 7 seeds

  • Colorado State (19-5, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 28 | KenPom No. 32

  • Clemson (16-7, 6-6 ACC): NET No. 30 | KenPom No. 31

  • Oklahoma (18-6, 6-5 Big 12): NET No. 31 | KenPom No. 25

  • Utah State (20-4, 8-3 Mountain West): NET No. 29 | KenPom: 40

Clemson got a huge bounce last week from its win at North Carolina, which was just their second victory in 62 all-time games in Chapel Hill. A manageable portion of their schedule awaits, too: No games remaining against the ACC's current top four teams until its regular-season finale against Wake Forest.

No. 8 seeds

  • Virginia (19-5, 10-3 ACC): NET No. 32 | KenPom No. 48

  • Texas (16-8, 5-6 Big 12): NET No. 34 | KenPom: No. 26

  • Texas A&M (15-8, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 37 | KenPom No. 39

  • Michigan State (15-9, 7-6 Big Ten): NET No. 23 | KenPom No. 15

There's no hotter team in the ACC right now than Virginia, who had won eight in a row entering its game Tuesday night against Pitt. Virginia had an underwhelming start, with the nadir coming in a 22-point loss against Notre Dame in late December, but it has rounded into form over the past month.

No. 9 seeds

  • New Mexico (19-5, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 22 | KenPom No. 22

  • Florida (16-7, 6-4 SEC): NET No. 33 | KenPom No. 27

  • Indiana State (22-3, 13-1 Missouri Valley): NET No. 20 | KenPom No. 38

  • Northwestern (17-7, 8-5 Big Ten): NET No. 50 | KenPom No. 56

No. 10 seeds

  • TCU (16-7, 5-5 Big 12): NET No. 42 | KenPom No. 36

  • Washington State (18-6, 9-4 Pac-12): NET No. 40 | KenPom No. 41

  • Boise State (16-8, 7-4 Mountain West): NET No. 48 | KenPom No. 54

  • Ole Miss (18-5, 5-5 SEC): NET No. 59 | KenPom No. 60

No. 11 seeds

  • Nevada (19-5, 6-4 Mountain West): NET No. 47 | KenPom No. 46

  • Mississippi State (16-8, 5-6 SEC): NET No. 36 | KenPom No. 35

  • Butler (16-8, 7-6 Big East): NET No. 50 | KenPom No. 49

  • Grand Canyon (22-2, 12-1 Western Athletic): NET No. 44 | KenPom No. 53

  • Nebraska (17-8, 7-7 Big Ten)**: NET No. 53 | KenPom No. 51

  • Cincinnati (15-8, 4-6 Big 12)**: NET No. 35 | KenPom No. 33

No. 12 seeds

  • McNeese (21-3, 10-1 Southland): NET No. 57 | KenPom No. 68

  • Samford (22-3, 11-1 Southern): NET No. 64 | KenPom No. 72

  • Richmond (17-6, 9-1 Atlantic 10): NET No. 70 | KenPom No. 80

  • UC Irvine (18-7, 11-2 Big West): NET No. 74 | KenPom No. 75

No. 13 seeds

  • Yale (16-6, 7-0 Ivy): NET No. 83 | KenPom No. 89

  • Akron (18-6, 10-1 Mid-American): NET No. 89 | KenPom No. 95

  • South Florida (17-5, 10-1 American Athletic): NET No. 103 | KenPom No. 112

  • UNC Wilmington (18-6, 9-3 Colonial Athletic): NET No. 101 | KenPom No. 102

No. 14 seeds

  • Morehead State (20-5, 11-1 Ohio Valley): NET No. 102 | KenPom No. 110

  • High Point (21-5, 10-1 Big South): NET No. 107 | KenPom No. 113

  • Vermont (19-6, 9-1 America East): NET No. 113 | KenPom No. 114

  • Eastern Washington (16-8, 10-1 Big Sky): NET No. 114 | KenPom No. 125

No. 15 seeds

  • Colgate (17-8, 11-1 Patriot): NET No. 132 | KenPom No. 141

  • Troy (17-8, 10-2 Sun Belt): NET No. 133 | KenPom No. 129

  • Quinnipiac (19-5, 11-2 Metro Atlantic Athletic): NET No. 152 | KenPom No. 181

  • Green Bay (17-9, 12-3 Horizon): NET No. 174 | KenPom No. 183

No. 16 seeds

  • South Dakota State (14-11, 7-3 Summit): NET No. 167 | KenPom No. 163

  • Sam Houston State (13-11, 6-3 Conference USA): NET No. 196 | KenPom No. 185

  • Eastern Kentucky (13-11, 9-2 ASUN): NET No. 208 | KenPom No. 191

  • Central Connecticut State (15-9, 9-2 Northeast): NET No. 226 | KenPom No. 251

  • North Carolina Central (13-9, 5-2 Mid-Eastern Athletic)**: NET No. 268 | KenPom No. 262

  • Grambling State (11-12, 8-2 Southwestern Athletic)**: NET No. 312 | KenPom No. 301

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: March Madness predictions: 2024 NCAA Tournament bracketology for ACC