March Madness bracket betting: The one future for 2024 worth taking now is Duke
UConn's win on Monday night was another win for the blue bloods (whether or not the Huskies are a blue blood can be debated, but they're clearly a top-tier program after five titles).
If you look through the history of the tournament since 1985, when it expanded to 64 teams, and even a bit before that, there are very few non-traditional powers with a championship. Teams like Florida Atlantic, San Diego State and Miami can make the Final Four, but it's very rare for a Cinderella to win those final two games and a championship. The set of champions comes from a fairly small pocket of programs, with few exceptions.
That helps guide future bets. You can look at any of the way-too-early top 25s on the internet and see teams like Florida Atlantic, Creighton or Miami very high up. They have some enticing odds to win the 2024 title, which are already up at BetMGM.
But it's probably smart to look at the same old programs that always seem to win. And one program that nobody likes to root for.
Duke among 2024 favorites
UConn is favored to win next year and that's justified. The Huskies will bring a lot back and just had one of the most dominant tournaments in recent history. A bet on them at +1000 isn't too bad.
I'll go one spot down in those odds. Duke looks pretty strong for 2023-24, and there's still value on the Blue Devils at +1300.
Duke will lose a lot of talent, but coach Jon Scheyer seems to be embracing the one-and-done approach of recruiting. So while Kyle Filipowski, Dereck Lively and Dariq Whitehead are expected to depart, they're being replaced by a freshman class that ranks second to Kentucky. That includes five five-star players. At the McDonald's All-American game last week, Sean Stewart won the dunk contest and Jared McCain won the three-point contest. Both are going to Duke.
There are good players returning too. Mark Mitchell, Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach give the Blue Devils a veteran nucleus. Talent won't be the problem, and Duke should have an open spot or two for a key transfer. Scheyer seemed to get better as his first season went on, although it ended in a big second-round disappointment as the Blue Devils lost to Tennessee. The finish to the season was something to build on though.
At 13-to-1 odds? That ticket should appreciate in value.
Who are some other potential contenders?
The tournament that just wrapped up was strange. It was one of the oddest Final Fours ever. Maybe, because the transfer portal is changing the game, that becomes the norm. But history says the ceiling for off-the-radar teams is usually short of winning it all.
Marquette (+2000) is in the top 10 of all too-early top 25s and even as high as No. 1, but it's hard to see the Golden Eagles winning it all (the Al McGuire days were a long time ago). Florida Atlantic had an awesome season and returns almost everyone, but there's no recent champion like the Owls. Creighton will be a hot team for another offseason, but will they win a title?
Duke can win a championship. We have seen that a few times. Over the long offseason, a lot of attention will be paid to Duke's freshman class, with its potential first-round draft picks, and Scheyer entering his second season. It's not fun to bet on Duke to win big, but it might prove to be wise.
