March Madness: 8 opponents to avoid in 2022 men's NCAA tournament
Some are Final Four sleepers. Some are once-sputtering giants. Some are perennial Cinderellas. But all of them, the eight teams featured in this now-annual article, have two things in common: They'll play in the 2022 NCAA men's basketball tournament, which begins next week. And when their names are read on Selection Sunday, opponents will groan.
That, essentially, is the criteria for this list, which last year identified a finalist and two Sweet 16 surprises. It can be difficult to define, but the goal, as always, is to pick out tourney participants who'll pose a threat disproportionate to what you'd expect from an average team on their seed line.
This year's group hails from seven conferences and eight different states. It covers a range of styles and roster compositions. It doesn't feature a top-two seed, because none has poked head and shoulders up above the rest the field. Instead, it's full of unheralded teams that could upend that top tier, and make March Mad. So let's get to it.
(Records, projected seedings and KenPom rankings through Friday's games.)
Texas Tech
25-9, 12-6 Big 12 | Projected seed: 3 | KenPom: 8
Chris Beard is gone. The identity that he crafted in Lubbock is not. Under Mark Adams, a Tech graduate and former Beard assistant, the Red Raiders have built another defensive juggernaut reminiscent of the one that ground its way to within inches of a national title in 2019.
They're an opponent to avoid in part because they're flat-out good. They went 5-1 against the rest of the Big 12's big four. They beat Baylor and their former coach twice each. They can very clearly do more damage in March.
But they're also an undesirable foe because they'll make your life miserable. Their switchable defense will wall off the paint and live in your nightmares for weeks to come. This band of transfers has coalesced into the top-ranked defensive unit in college basketball, and it can stifle anybody straight out of the tournament.
Arkansas
25-8, 13-5 SEC | Projected seed: 5 | KenPom: 20
The 2022 Razorbacks look eerily similar to the 2021 Razorbacks. Both stumbled early in SEC play. Both rebounded and charged through the regular season finish line behind an active defense that facilitated uptempo offense, and that primed Arkansas for a tourney run.
This year's group won 13 of its last 15, with wins over Kentucky and Auburn, and with the only losses coming by a combined five points on the road at top-25 teams. Its statistical profile is nearly a mirror image of last year's. And although its cast of characters has evolved, it very well could repeat last year's feats — namely, a run to the Elite Eight, where it gave the eventual champs their fairest fight of March Madness.
Iowa
25-9, 12-8 Big Ten | Projected seed: 4 | KenPom: 13
Iowa hasn't reached the tournament's second weekend this century. So what makes these Hawkeyes different?
Well, start with Keegan Murray, a still-improving sophomore wing who might just be the most well-rounded player in college hoops. He's scored, rebounded, blocked shots and taken care of the ball all season; now he's hitting 43% of his 3s since the start of January. Iowa has never had a player like him.
It has, of course, had offensive machines like this one that simply sputtered in March. But don't blame Fran McCaffery for running into an Oregon buzzsaw last year. Forget the slip-ups of yore. This team will be underseeded, favored to do what its predecessors haven't and is capable of running a contender out of a Sweet 16 gym.
Murray State
30-2, 20-0 Ohio Valley | Projected seed: 9 | KenPom: 27
The Racers have won 30-plus games before. They've run the conference table before. They've produced NBA All-Stars and prominent coaches and March magic. And yet, on paper, never before have they produced a team as good as this one. Their last loss was Dec. 22 at Auburn. Their two wins over Belmont, its one legitimate OVC adversary, were by a combined 55 points.
This could be the year Murray State breaks through to the second weekend.
Michigan
17-14, 11-9 Big Ten | Projected seed: 10 | KenPom: 33
It's often tempting to reach for mysterious mid-majors as upset picks — and don't worry, we'll do so eventually. But blue bloods can rise from the ashes of underwhelming seasons to make noise in March too. And Michigan is a prime candidate to do just that.
Two months ago, the Wolverines were 7-7 and 1-3 in the Big Ten. In February and March, though, even amid moderate turmoil, there have been flickers of the top-five team that many thought this would be. They beat Iowa and Purdue, then Michigan State without their head coach, then Ohio State without their best player. Now everybody is back, and hopes are percolating, and sure, we've all since realized that this isn't a top-five team. But it isn't a 10-seed either.
Memphis
21-9, 13-5 AAC | Projected seed: 10 | KenPom: 26
Penny Hardaway's fourth season at his alma matter has been a — uh, an interesting one. But it ended with 10 wins in 11 tries, including two over league champ Houston. It's going to end with a tourney berth, the first of the Penny era, and, well, which would you rather see on Selection Sunday if you're a No. 6 seed: A team with top-10 recruits and an appearance in the AP top 10 this season? Or a team with neither of those things?
Loyola Chicago
25-7, 16-5 Missouri Valley | Projected seed: 11 | KenPom: 24
No, this isn't an accidental reprint: Loyola really did win the Valley again, and really is going to be undervalued by the selection committee again, and really could conjure another Cinderella run.
South Dakota State
30-4, 21-0 Summit League | Projected seed: 13 | KenPom: 71
Riding a 21-game win streak and 44% 3-point shooting — the best mark in Division I by four full percentage points — into the Big Dance. The Jackrabbits are, in other words, the last thing any No. 4 seed wants to see in the round of 64.
