Mainland, Lake Mary clash in battle of Florida No. 1's | High school football primer
Rather than coast into the playoffs after sewing up another district championship last week, Mainland instead enters the national spotlight for Florida's marquee Week 11 showdown.
The Buccaneers (9-0) put their unbeaten record and, potentially, home field advantage for the first four rounds of the playoffs on the line Friday against Lake Mary (8-1) in a battle of top-ranked teams. According to the Florida High School Athletic Association's football rankings, Mainland is No. 1 in Class 3S (No. 6 overall), and Lake Mary — fresh off a 29-28 loss to rival Seminole — tops Class 4M (No. 12 overall).
MaxPreps listed the Lake Mary-Mainland showdown among its top 10 games in the nation this week.
Video: Forecasting Volusia-Flagler football teams' FHSAA playoff chances in tier list
"This is what you want. You want regular season games to matter," Bucs coach Travis Roland said.
Lake Mary possesses one of the country's most dangerous offenses, under the command of sophomore Noah Grubbs. The 6-foot-4, 205-pounder has thrown for 2,888 yards, 41 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Mainland, meanwhile, boasts one of the state's most imposing defenses. The Bucs have registered five shutouts, with elite playmakers at all three levels — including five-star defensive lineman LJ McCray (Florida commit), hard-hitting linebacker Rodney Hill (Tulane) and the potential Power Five cornerback tandem of Zavier Mincey and Ezaiah Shine.
3 things to keep an eye on
Lake Mary's underrated running game
Grubbs is obviously an elite talent, and his receiving corps gives opposing secondaries fits. Carson Hinshaw leads the way with 48 receptions, 875 yards and 17 touchdowns, and both Caden Harshbarger and Logan Cook have seven touchdown catches apiece.
But, the Rams can run the football, too.
Isaiah Thomas has notched five 100-yard rushing games, surpassing the century mark in each of the last two weeks. He's a weapon out of the backfield, too, with 18 receptions, 320 yards and four touchdowns.
"He caught on quite early. It's just taken some of these bigger games for people to notice him," Rams coach Scott Perry said. "He runs hard, breaks tackles, is a dual threat and is a great kid."
Mainland generating pressure with defensive front
Lake Mary's offensive line has given Grubbs plenty of time to pick apart opposing secondaries, but Seminole got home when it counted last week as Duke commit Preston Watson turned in a dominant outing.
Vanderbilt-bound senior Josh Raymond anchors the Rams' offensive line, and he held up well in a few one-on-one reps against McCray at the Under Armour All-America camp back in March. But it's a much tougher ask to keep the 6-foot-5, 260-pounder at bay for four quarters, let alone also slowing down Christian Hudson, Ramon McCollough and the Bucs' blitzing linebackers.
The Bucs have registered 165 tackles for loss and 45 sacks this season. McCollough leads the squad in both departments, with 23 and 10, respectively.
"I sometimes laugh because I feel like our defense is getting disrespected," Roland said. "We haven't seen a quarterback like this, but I question whether they have seen a defense like ours with as much size and speed and power."
Grubbs' accuracy will force Mainland's defensive backs to play tight to their receivers, as well. Mincey has batted away 11 passes this season, and has one of the Bucs' nine interceptions.
Mainland's offense ready to answer the challenge
As great as the Bucs are defensively, odds are Lake Mary will make several trips to the end zone. The Rams average 43.9 points per game, and they have done so against a formidable schedule (Dr. Phillips, Oviedo, Mandarin, Apopka, Seminole, etc.).
That means Mainland's offense needs to keep pace, and control the tempo with its physical rushing attack. The Bucs love to lean on the left side of their offensive line, tackle Madden Santiago and guard Hudson, in crunch time. And they have a diverse group of ball-carriers that can pop off for big gains, starting with dual-threat quarterback Dennis Murray Jr.
Murray broke loose for a crucial 80-yard score right before halftime two weeks ago against Osceola. Both he and junior Khamani Robinson rank among Volusia-Flagler's 10 leading rushers.
Rodney Hill and Corey Hill are quality complementary pieces, with the former filling the Ajai Harrell-shaped void as the team's short-yardage specialist in heavy packages.
"I would rather be prepared for a street fight than a slapbox," Roland said. "Grimy games can be different if you haven't been in a bunch of them."
Staff picks
Chris Boyle (@ChrisBoyleDBNJ): Mainland 27, Lake Mary 21. Record: 93-15.
Chris Vinel (@ChrisAVinel): Mainland 28, Lake Mary 27. Record: 84-24.
Ryan Pritt (@RPritt): Mainland 30, Lake Mary 17. Record: 77-31.
Other games
DeLand (7-2) at Flagler Palm Coast (3-6), 7
In this all-Bulldog battle, DeLand still has plenty to play for with regards to improving its playoff seeding. The District 9-4S champs are in the No. 3 spot, sitting behind Treasure Coast and University. TJ Moore and Javon Ross rushed for two touchdowns apiece against New Smyrna Beach last week, and connected on a TD pass. FPC came up short on a potential winning two-point conversion against Tocoi Creek, falling to 0-3 in District 4-4S. Marcus Mitchell rushed for 207 yards, and Mikhail Zysek caught two of Caden Gonzalez's three touchdown passes.
Picks — Boyle: DeLand 44-17, Vinel: DeLand 36-17, Pritt: DeLand 29-21.
New Smyrna Beach (6-3) at Leon (5-4), 7
Playoff hopes are on the line for New Smyrna Beach in a long trip up to Tallahassee. The Barracudas are holding onto the fourth and final wild card spot in Region 3-4S, with both Martin County and Viera still in potential striking distance. Leon jumped out to a 5-0 start, but four straight defeats sunk their chances at a bid. The Lions prevailed 21-19 last November for their lone win of 2022.
Picks — Boyle: Leon 16-14, Vinel: NSB 21-19, Pritt: NSB 24-12.
Winter Springs (0-9) at Matanzas (6-3), 7
Losing to Menendez for the sixth time in seven seasons dented Matanzas' résumé, dropping the Pirates from the fourth seed to seventh in Region 1-3S. Still, a victory over winless Winter Springs should be enough to get them across the line, and likely up into the Panhandle for Round 1. The visiting Bears have surrendered at least 40 points in five straight games, and no fewer than 60 in back-to-back weeks.
Picks — Boyle: Matanzas 49-7, Vinel: Matanzas 42-7, Pritt: Matanzas 35-12.
University (8-1) at Deltona (1-8), 7
University rebounded from its first defeat of the fall with a three-score win over Lyman, rushing for 206 yards and picking off three Greyhound passes. Jermane Hayes scored on special teams and via pick-six. Matt Martin celebrated his first victory as the head coach of his alma mater when Deltona defeated Pine Ridge for the 11th straight time. Koen Bonta caught three balls for 122 yards and three touchdowns, and Robert Williams had four TFLs and two sacks.
Picks — Boyle: University 56-6, Vinel: University 49-7, Pritt: University 31-14.
Pine Ridge (3-5) at Atlantic (4-5), 7
The Teal Bowl brings together two teams with opposite trajectories entering November. Atlantic clinched its first district football championship in program history with a comfortable 56-6 rout of Taylor last week, led by Kwasie Kwaku's 175 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Sharks are likely locked into the No. 8 seed in Region 2-2S, setting up a potential showdown with unbeaten Bradford. Pine Ridge, meanwhile, has lost five in a row after its best start in 15 years. Alex Johnson threw for 180 yards last week, and Chris Boddie totaled 103 yards from scrimmage with a couple of scores on 13 touches.
Picks — Boyle: Atlantic 26-23, Vinel: Atlantic 30-22, Pritt: Atlantic 27-24.
Father Lopez (2-7) at Taylor (3-5), 7
Jacob Lohman threw four touchdowns and ran for another as Father Lopez snapped a six-game losing streak last week, defeating St. Francis Catholic 35-0 in the first Florida high school football game officiated by an all-female crew. Dylan Tocci had three TD catches, in addition to a pair of picks from his safety spot. Taylor returned to the field last week after a pair of injury-related cancellations as its roster numbers dwindled. The Wildcats' last win dates back to Sept. 15.
Picks — Boyle: Father Lopez 39-13, Vinel: Father Lopez 36-20, Pritt: Taylor 26-21.
Trinity Christian (2-7) at Bell Creek (4-5), 7
Trinity Christian blanked Leesburg First Academy last week for its first win since Sept. 1, extending its campaign for an extra week in the Sunshine State Athletic Conference's playoffs. The Eagles take on Bell Creek Academy out of Riverview, an 18-6 winner over Orlando's Faith Christian last week. The Panthers have topped 20 points offensively just once this season.
Picks — Boyle: Bell Creek 34-8, Vinel: Bell Creek 38-18, Pritt: Bell Creek 20-7.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: High school football: Mainland, Lake Mary lead Volusia-Flagler slate
